What the bond market is saying about a trump win.

[berg80]

I am not sure that trump plans tariffs on every imported product

Neither is he. Which is kinda the point.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

For the unaware, the bond market, in terms of dollars invested, is many times larger than the stock market. Long duration bond yields had been dropping for quite a while in response to the Fed getting inflation under control. More recently, bond yields have been climbing again over concern of a trump election victory. Because bond market players realize his idiotic tariff plan is inflationary.

Stocks and bonds have an inverse relationship you idiot.

 

[berg80]

Fed meeting recap: Powell ‘feeling good’ about economy, says Trump can’t legally fire him​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-anticipate-november-rate-cut.html

I hope Jerome doesn't think it will stop trump from trying. Illegal actions are his thing.

 

[g5000]

For the unaware, the bond market, in terms of dollars invested, is many times larger than the stock market. Long duration bond yields had been dropping for quite a while in response to the Fed getting inflation under control. More recently, bond yields have been climbing again over concern of a trump election victory. Because bond market players realize his idiotic tariff plan is inflationary.

I think what the bond market is most concerned with is our ability to pay the ever increasing interest on our debt.

I've been saying for YEARS that a point will come with all this deficit spending that the world's investors will lose faith in our credit worthiness.

This is why our debt has always been my number one issue above all others and why I detest both parties.

 

[berg80]

Why mortgage rates have kept rising​

While mortgage rates often move in step with the Fed’s benchmark rate, they’re more directly tied to 10-year Treasury bond yields. These yields tend to rise when investors expect stronger economic growth and higher inflation — even when the Federal Reserve is cutting the federal funds rate.
“Since the middle of September, there have been a series of economic data reports showing that the economy is stronger than expected,” says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage in New York. “When people have jobs and make money, they spend it, and that’s inflationary.”
The ramp up in mortgage rates also reflects market expectations that “President-elect Trump will accelerate the growth of the budget deficit more quickly than Vice President Harris would,” says Michael Nourmand, president of the brokerage Nourmand & Associates in Los Angeles. Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could also drive inflation by raising prices, he says.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/why-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing-despite-fed-interest-rate-cuts.html

 

[g5000]

I am not sure that trump plans tariffs on every imported product

Even from our closest allies and trading partners

If so that would be a mistake

In his first term, Trump placed tariffs on the EU, Mexico, and Canada.

He has expressed his desire to replace the income tax and fund the government with tariffs.

Because he's an idiot who can't see how inflationary that would be or that we cannot fund $4 trillion of annual expenditures with tariffs.

 

[g5000]

White House to Impose Metal Tariffs on E.U., Canada and Mexico​

​

 

[berg80]

I think what the bond market is most concerned with is our ability to pay the ever increasing interest on our debt.

There is increasing market chatter about the size of the debt. I've decreased my market exposure today and will continue to do so. I also shorted the TLT (a 20 year bond proxy) about 6 weeks ago. Once the debt narrative really takes hold it's going to get ugly.

 

[g5000]

2019:​

​

US to impose tariffs on EU aircraft and agricultural products​

​

 

[Mac-7]

Neither is he. Which is kinda the point.

Why does he have to be sure before he has consulted many different interests?

Trump is not the dictator you may have heard he is

 

[berg80]

Just sayin'.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Just sayin'.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/

What are you saying?
The price went up $2.25 since Wednesday morning?

 

[berg80]

What are you saying?
The price went up $2.25 since Wednesday morning?

Bond yields continue to rise in anticipation of higher inflation and annual deficits under trump.

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Bond yields continue to rise in anticipation of higher inflation and annual deficits under trump.

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

I know! After rising from below 1.5% at the beginning of Biden's term to about 4.4% now,
it's obvious that the 10-year bond is blaming Trump for future inflation.

 

[Lesh]

Wapo has a paywall

But if you are able to give us the anti trump spiel in your own words I’ll take a look

The time to look seriously at that was two weeks ago

Sheesh

 

[berg80]

I know! After rising from below 1.5% at the beginning of Biden's term to about 4.4% now,
it's obvious that the 10-year bond is blaming Trump for future inflation.

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

Pull up a 3 month chart of the 10 year. Ever since the market began pricing in a trump win yields have shot higher in anticipation of budget deficits and inflation due to tariffs.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

Pull up a 3 month chart of the 10 year. Ever since the market began pricing in a trump win yields have shot higher in anticipation of budget deficits and inflation due to tariffs.

Pricing in a Trump win in August? DURR

 

[berg80]

Pricing in a Trump win in August? DURR

If it hadn't been the move would have been reversed by now after the win. Yet bond yields keep going higher.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

If it hadn't been the move would have been reversed by now after the win. Yet bond yields keep going higher.

I guess we're doomed.
Bidenflation is tough to kill.

 

[berg80]

Pricing in a Trump win in August? DURR

It was mid Sept.