What is happening in Kazakhstan?

[Donald H]

no, now the US government is playing on the side of China, this is the left flank

What are you talking about?

 

[rupol2000]

What are you talking about?

I'm talking about the left movement. Ultra-left China + left-wing US government = Great alliance. They have common goals: a world totalitarian state.

 

[Donald H]

There won't be any world war. Stop falling to this silly Russian propaganda. Some compromise will be find concerning European security.

Hope you're right but I just don't see how the competing parties could keep it contained to regional conflicts between proxies. Russia has no proxy to sacrifice as I see it, and that means Russian troops will die at American hands. Or at Ukrainians hands and that can't be acceptable to Russia.

None of the three leading contenders will accept military defeat and America would almost certainly have to keep it limited to a proxy war. The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan. I don't see that as being possible in Ukraine.

Maybe America is stepping back from the Ukraine project, in favour of Kazakhstan being the much bitter prize. There's no bigger prize for all parties, but I suggest that Russia and China will cooperate and share the spoils if their side should win through other means than military.

 

[Donald H]

I'm talking about the left movement. Ultra-left China + left-wing US government = Great alliance. They have common goals: a world totalitarian state.

I no longer take you seriously on this topic.

 

[rupol2000]

The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan.

lol.​

This would sound realistic for the Reagan 80s, for America of men, but not for today's America, which elected Lavrenty Beria 2 as president and allowed Barbie dolls to control combat units in the army.
You are hopelessly stuck in the past

 

[ESay]

Hope you're right but I just don't see how the competing parties could keep it contained to regional conflicts between proxies. Russia has no proxy to sacrifice as I see it, and that means Russian troops will die at American hands. Or at Ukrainians hands and that can't be acceptable to Russia.

None of the three leading contenders will accept military defeat and America would almost certainly have to keep it limited to a proxy war. The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan. I don't see that as being possible in Ukraine.

Maybe America is stepping back from the Ukraine project, in favour of Kazakhstan being the much bitter prize. There's no bigger prize for all parties, but I suggest that Russia and China will cooperate and share the spoils if their side should win through other means than military.

Kazakhstan and Ukraine are two issues which don't coincide directly. Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.

About the 'Ukraine project'. I think there will be some agreement establishing a buffer zone comprising of Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova and their neutrality.

 

[Donald H]

That at this moment is NOT the main issue. Not to me. Nor to Kazakhs. The main issue is what is best for the people in this part of the world — and another war between great powers, a foreigners’ “struggle to gain control” of Kazakhstan’s resources, is definitely just about the LAST thing that is needed here!

Another war between great powers is not in the wishes of any of the major powers. We should all know by now that the great powers only meet through proxies. I'm sure you must understand what that means. The main issue to either you or the Kazakhs is irrelevant, being that they are pawns in the bigger game. The main issue is always the outcome that will decide which of the major powers will own Kazakhstan.

The utterly corrupt family/clan/patronage network ruling the country up to this time was at least sufficiently unified to hold in check both Western and Russian or Chinese appetites to dominate the country, while allowing for economic development. THAT is the way things should remain in terms of ALL the great powers!

You seem to be suggesting there will be no struggle for that country. I have to suggest that is rather naive Tom. But I think you must have read the Brasil link I posted because you're much more into the details now from the other perspective that was missing.

That is also the best guarantee for peace and domestic harmony and all around future development. The next priority is of course spreading the economic gains fairly, which certainly will require social/economic reforms and democratization of the political system.

Kazakhstan just sitting there for the foreseeable future, with now loyalties or ties to one of the competing sides?? Really?

If such changes can / must happen rapidly through “revolution” that would be fine with me. But given the real situation in the country this is extremely unlikely. There is at present no such revolutionary force in Kazakhstan. There is not even a genuinely democratic party. Such a force or party sure as hell will not be encouraged by ANY of the great contending powers!

If there is no revolution or revolutionary attempts originating out of protests, then the US hasn't set the stage adequately, and you would be right for a short while at least.

I at least have some respect for you talking points Tom, even though I don't accept most. Maybe you can withdraw your backhanded insult and start to consider mine?

There are very few opportunities for rational discussion here so let's not squander the little we are able to influence among the few.

 

[rupol2000]

Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.

Why should China fight Russia if Russia is already giving everything away? The Chinese already consider the territory of Russia to be a continuation of the Celestial Empire, they do not care about some kind of struggle, they simply silently populate Siberia and the Urals, take their islands and expropriate resources. Siberian timber is transported from Siberia around the clock by freight trains.

 

[ESay]

Why should China fight Russia if Russia is already giving everything away? The Chinese already consider the territory of Russia to be a continuation of the Celestial Empire, they do not care about some kind of struggle, they simply silently populate Siberia and the Urals, take their islands and expropriate resources. Siberian timber is transported from Siberia around the clock by freight trains.

If you are implying that there will be a China-Finland border, then I don't believe in that. Russia will remain to be a strong regional player.

 

[Donald H]

Kazakhstan and Ukraine are two issues which don't coincide directly. Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.

You're asking me to accept that America isn't actively involved in a power move to acquire Kazakhstan. Incredible! You're calling checkmate instead of moving you first pawn.

About the 'Ukraine project'. I think there will be some agreement establishing a buffer zone comprising of Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova and their neutrality.

Possibly, but America would be giving up gained ground of Ukraine loyalties to Russia. The reality of the situation is that America attempted a bridge too far with the Crimea, and should have known all along that Russia could never accept America's bid. America isn't likely to pull out of the game with less than it went in with!

However, Kazakhstan could be the new front and Ukraine may be relinquished and be replaced for the much bigger prize. It's hard for me to say whether or not America can establish two active fronts together.

There is absolutely no doubt that China wants and needs a safe presence in Kazakh, and America needs to deny China that. I see the best possibility of a strong China/Russia alliance in that country.

 

[rupol2000]

According to the same scenario, Austria-Hungary was captured. At first, German colonists settled there, and then pan-Germanists came from Prussia and began to shout that the Danube were originally German land.

 

[rupol2000]

If you are implying that there will be a China-Finland border, then I don't believe in that. Russia will remain to be a strong regional player.

As an appendage of Europe? Can independent players be export economies, especially raw materials? The currency board mechanism operates there, the central bank converts export earnings into assets of foreign governments. This is clearly not a sign of independent player politics.

 

[Donald H]

Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.

Wouldn't that be in a wonderful make-believe world!
Better than jesus coming back but just as unlikely.

Neither China or Russia can ever afford to lock horns on any issue, now that America's might has been turned against both in deadly earnest!

But do expand on your theory! Where did you get it?

 

[rupol2000]

ESay By the way, the German ultra-lefts directly state that Germany should use Russian resources to defeat the United States
They don't have a fucking constitution yet, and the status of their eastern lands is not legally defined, but they already want to destroy the USA

 

[rupol2000]

By the way, the demands of the protesters contain a clause on the return of the 1993 constitution. And according to the current constitution of 1995, the president has supreme power there, and determines domestic and foreign policy. There is no such presidential power either in Russia or in the USA
In most democracies, the president is only the chief executive.

 

[Siberian]

Not a puppet but sympathetic to Russia.

Undoubtedly anti-government protests will take place, on behalf of the US and it's claims of bringing democracy.

It could be a wet dream, as you suggest. Ukraine could be a wet dream too. I'm more concerned with Russia's resolve to stand their ground and that could lead to world war.

And as with US occupations, air power to back up the ground forces. Illegal occupation or invited guests?

I don't think Russia is interested in territorial gains, as opposed to holding the lines.

Donald, with al respect to US milirary capability, it is lost in vain because your elite is so dumb to rely on force only.
This is the reason US methods work with weak ones only. if at all.
While Putin is a very, very caucious strategic chess player, he even did not take Ukraine in 2014 while he easily could. 80% of Ukrainian army in Crimea now serves as Russian military, don't you know? I mean they just shifted to Russian army, and in the rest of Ukraine I presume the rate would have been around 50% if Putin started to seize the rest of Ukraine.
It would have been an easy walk if he was brave enough, but he is very, very, extremely, extraordinarily cauvious.
I can't call him a coward after Crimea and Syria, but in most cases when my personal and most Russians' blood is boiling demanding military action or any response - he retreats.

He plays only if success is guaranteed.

This is why, by the way, I think recent escalation with the US will end with your complete defeat.
He would have not started the game if he had not 10 aces in his sleeve.

So, coming back to Kazakhstan, situation there is 100 times more complex than in any of US interventions, which you successfully completely failed.

Russian military presence gives us nothing.
Russian troops will complete withdrawal within days.

 

[Siberian]

ually reserve my best polemics for cynics...

A more cynical view is that I’m entertaining only myself by revealing the silly errors of others.

I’d like to believe that naive ideologues like Donald H — depending on his age and personality — can actually still learn how to think. Others can take my comments any way they want.

I have a strange feeling watching you call other people idealists

but I hope we can have some fun here trying to catch each other being silly...

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

[directed at Rupol…] “I no longer take you seriously on this topic.”

That is very wise. The man is a raving lunatic.

By the way, earlier my intention was not to insult you. I did call you a “naive ideologue.” I confess I do think of you that way. I was — when much younger — somewhat similar. I’d like to think I’m a bit wiser now than back then. My remark about “learning to think” was probably also a reflection of meditating on how I feel now about my earlier self. Hope you realize I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings. I can be a bit too acid at times.

 

[ESay]

You're asking me to accept that America isn't actively involved in a power move to acquire Kazakhstan. Incredible! You're calling checkmate instead of moving you first pawn.

Possibly, but America would be giving up gained ground of Ukraine loyalties to Russia. The reality of the situation is that America attempted a bridge too far with the Crimea, and should have known all along that Russia could never accept America's bid. America isn't likely to pull out of the game with less than it went in with!

However, Kazakhstan could be the new front and Ukraine may be relinquished and be replaced for the much bigger prize. It's hard for me to say whether or not America can establish two active fronts together.

There is absolutely no doubt that China wants and needs a safe presence in Kazakh, and America needs to deny China that. I see the best possibility of a strong China/Russia alliance in that country.

I don't ask you anything. I just express my opinion, which can be right or wrong. I don't rule out at all that the recent violent protests in Kazakhstan were instigated by warring clans there, without foreign involvement.

Ukraine isn't the main prize and was never intended to be. The US foreign policy is based on preparations to future global struggle with China, and American relations with Russia lie inside this matrix.

I expect the US will agree to Russia preserving its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe in exchange of Russia' neutrality on the Far East.

 

[rupol2000]

That is very wise. The man is a raving lunatic.

For cattle, everyone seems crazy whose picture of the world does not correspond to the picture of their zombie brain. The same sheep shouted that those who reject scholasticism and do not believe in creation in 7 days are crazy.
These degenerates are specially selected by the authorities as a support of the left regime. This is where the cult of the holy fool comes from. Now the role of scholia has been taken over by schools and the media.
PS Fortunately, there are fewer such degenerates in the USA than in Europe.