What is happening in Kazakhstan?

[Decus]

Being there with a military presence ensures that Russia isn't upstaged by the US. Think of Syria, where US plans of conquest have been rendered impossible by the situation in which Russia is an invited guest.
Same shit all over the ME and elsewhere.

Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.

Should Russia try to assert itself in Kazakhstan the Chinese will send them packing.

"The Chinese foreign minister said that China is willing to increase cooperation with Kazakhstan in law enforcement and security departments, boost bilateral cooperation in anti-interference, safeguard the security of the political systems and governments of the two countries, prevent and oppose any attempt of "color revolution," and jointly oppose the interference of any external forces."

China firmly supports Kazakhstan in maintaining stability, stopping violence: FM

Tracing the Chinese Footprints in Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Industry

In Beijing’s pursuit of shifting its trade and energy dependencies from sea to land, Nur-Sultan is a necessary partner.

thediplomat.com

.

 

[Siberian]

Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.

Should Russia try to assert itself in Kazakhstan the Chinese will send them packing.

"The Chinese foreign minister said that China is willing to increase cooperation with Kazakhstan in law enforcement and security departments, boost bilateral cooperation in anti-interference, safeguard the security of the political systems and governments of the two countries, prevent and oppose any attempt of "color revolution," and jointly oppose the interference of any external forces."

China firmly supports Kazakhstan in maintaining stability, stopping violence: FM

Tracing the Chinese Footprints in Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Industry

In Beijing’s pursuit of shifting its trade and energy dependencies from sea to land, Nur-Sultan is a necessary partner.

thediplomat.com

.

lol, if I remember correctly, Kazakstan became part of Russia voluntarily or semi-voluntarily due to being exterminated by Chinese..

I mean anti-Chinese paranoya in KazakhstN is bigger than anti_Rissian one in Baltic states.
and if Russian troops to ever stay in Kazakhstan it may be on Kazakh request to cointerbalance China.

of course there is Chinese growing influence in business, but it is exactly where greed of Kazakh elite contradicts to its own fears and popular mood.

generally, Kazakhstan is hardly to become Chinese client, it will rather become a Russian one, but mostly will try to play multi-vector game.

until it colapses, as other post-Soviet republics...

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.

I don’t think there is any evidence that China is now “the dominant player in Kazakhstan,” though it certainly has growing economic influence and a deep desire to protect its Belt and Road plans. Like Russia, it is mostly interested in stability there.

The Kazakh leadership since independence has carefully tried to balance its trade with both economies (of course Russia started way ahead) and also with the West. It would be wise to continue to do so in my opinion.

It is yet to be seen whether the Kazakh leaders can restabilize their regime and avoid falling into deep fratricidal clan and factional conflict, or ethnic and religious conflict, let alone introduce reforms that allow the wealth produced by the new extractive industries to be shared more fairly among Kazakhstan’s citizens.

The competition between foreign economic powers in theory can help Kazakhstan get better deals benefiting the nation as a whole, but that very competition can also just increase bribery. The “curse of oil” is a real phenomenon, and here it’s not countered by a large middle or professional class or strong small business entrepreneurs. Kleptocracy under a slightly different ruling faction, and continuing thorough-going dictatorship, may easily win the day.

 

[Siberian]

as I see Western authors

Being there with a military presence ensures that Russia isn't upstaged by the US. Think of Syria, where US plans of conquest have been rendered impossible by the situation in which Russia is an invited guest.
Same shit all over the ME and elsewhere.

how can 2500 Russian troops prevent anything?
especially with Kazakhstan government not being a Russian puppet.
quite the contrary, CIA via Kazakh clans or they themselves can organize anti_Russian protests any moment, what is next for Russia, to suppress them?
it is the wet dream of the US, to drag Russia into resourse-expensive conflict on its border
there is no sense to keep insufficient number of troops with no control over the government, it will rather harm Russia-Kazakhstan relations.

Russia gained very little in this crisis

 

[Decus]

lol, if I remember correctly, Kazakstan became part of Russia voluntarily or semi-voluntarily due to being exterminated by Chinese..

I mean anti-Chinese paranoya in KazakhstN is bigger than anti_Rissian one in Baltic states.
and if Russian troops to ever stay in Kazakhstan it may be on Kazakh request to cointerbalance China.

of course there is Chinese growing influence in business, but it is exactly where greed of Kazakh elite contradicts to its own fears and popular mood.

generally, Kazakhstan is hardly to become Chinese client, it will rather become a Russian one, but mostly will try to play multi-vector game.

until it colapses, as other post-Soviet republics...

Like in Siberia China dictates the terms.

Having invested so much in Kazakhstan China will not tolerate Russian interference in their acquired energy and mineral resources. Kazakhs don't like Russians or Chinese but China will not go away and this is a fact that Russia has accepted.

.

 

[Siberian]

Like in Siberia China dictates the terms.

Having invested so much in Kazakhstan China will not tolerate Russian interference in their acquired energy and mineral resources. Kazakhs don't like Russians or Chinese but China will not go away and this is a fact that Russia has accepted.

.

like in Siberia?
lol, for the whole post-Soviet period only 20 thousand Chinese were granted Russian citizenship and settled there. Or were granted citizenship at all, not in Siberia only, I don't remember exactly.

as well Chinese population in North China moves Southwards, the North is going to depopulate fast in coming years.

There is no Chinese danger to Russia, it is a wet dream of the US but it's in vain...

China cannot guarantee security of Kazakhstan, Russia can.
Chinese economic presence is not a problem.
in worst case scenario, if Kazakhstan collapses, Russia will take the North and let Chinese deal with islamists in the South.

 

[rupol2000]

During Khrushchev's time, the USSR could repulse the Chinese threat; the modern Russian authorities do not have the political will to do so. Chinese criminals operate without paying attention to Russia, and Siberia is illegally colonized by China. All this is very sad.

 

[Siberian]

During Khrushchev's time, the USSR could repulse the Chinese threat; the modern Russian authorities do not have the political will to do so. Chinese criminals operate without paying attention to Russia, and Siberia is illegally colonized by China. All this is very sad.

there is no Chinese threat now.
it's all just myths spread by Western propaganda in an attempt to make a rift between Russia and China

 

[rupol2000]

Chinese troops in Chelyabinsk!

Chelyabinsk is the west of Siberia! It's not just Siberia, it's Ural, almost the European part of Russia. There are Chinese troops stationed there!

 

[Siberian]

Chinese troops in Chelyabinsk!

Chelyabinsk is the west of Siberia! It's not just Siberia, it's Ural, almost the European part of Russia. There are Chinese troops stationed there!

damn, Chinese are coming!
it's time to throw myself out of the window.
what was that American general's name?

 

[Donald H]

as I see Western authors

how can 2500 Russian troops prevent anything?
especially with Kazakhstan government not being a Russian puppet.

Not a puppet but sympathetic to Russia.

quite the contrary, CIA via Kazakh clans or they themselves can organize anti_Russian protests any moment, what is next for Russia, to suppress them?

Undoubtedly anti-government protests will take place, on behalf of the US and it's claims of bringing democracy.

it is the wet dream of the US, to drag Russia into resourse-expensive conflict on its border

It could be a wet dream, as you suggest. Ukraine could be a wet dream too. I'm more concerned with Russia's resolve to stand their ground and that could lead to world war.

there is no sense to keep insufficient number of troops with no control over the government, it will rather harm Russia-Kazakhstan relations.

And as with US occupations, air power to back up the ground forces. Illegal occupation or invited guests?

Russia gained very little in this crisis

I don't think Russia is interested in territorial gains, as opposed to holding the lines.

 

[Donald H]

Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.

Should Russia try to assert itself in Kazakhstan the Chinese will send them packing.

China and Russia are forming a cooperation alliance.

"The Chinese foreign minister said that China is willing to increase cooperation with Kazakhstan in law enforcement and security departments, boost bilateral cooperation in anti-interference, safeguard the security of the political systems and governments of the two countries, prevent and oppose any attempt of "color revolution," and jointly oppose the interference of any external forces."

It's all in the meaning of external forces. Russia is an invited peacekeeping guest.

China firmly supports Kazakhstan in maintaining stability, stopping violence: FM

Tracing the Chinese Footprints in Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Industry

In Beijing’s pursuit of shifting its trade and energy dependencies from sea to land, Nur-Sultan is a necessary partner.

thediplomat.com

There are China's footprints throughout the world but not as an invading force.

.

 

[Donald H]

Several factors drove protestors into the streets in Kazakhstan:

Kazakhs are fed-up with corruption. Fed-up with the fact that elites enjoy the wealth of the country while the average person is left to deal with rising fuel and food prices and face limited opportunities.





.

When the people rise up in violent protest against government, it's an indication that government needs to make adjustments to it's ideology. This is no more true in Kazakhstan than it is true in America.

And coincidentally, the reason for the people raising their voices is the same in both cases.

 

[Donald H]

I don’t think there is any evidence that China is now “the dominant player in Kazakhstan,” though it certainly has growing economic influence and a deep desire to protect its Belt and Road plans. Like Russia, it is mostly interested in stability there.

The Kazakh leadership since independence has carefully tried to balance its trade with both economies (of course Russia started way ahead) and also with the West. It would be wise to continue to do so in my opinion.

It is yet to be seen whether the Kazakh leaders can restabilize their regime and avoid falling into deep fratricidal clan and factional conflict, or ethnic and religious conflict, let alone introduce reforms that allow the wealth produced by the new extractive industries to be shared more fairly among Kazakhstan’s citizens.

The competition between foreign economic powers in theory can help Kazakhstan get better deals benefiting the nation as a whole, but that very competition can also just increase bribery. The “curse of oil” is a real phenomenon, and here it’s not countered by a large middle or professional class or strong small business entrepreneurs. Kleptocracy under a slightly different ruling faction, and continuing thorough-going dictatorship, may easily win the day.

You're still dancing around the main issue Tom. That is, competition between America and Russia/China to gain control over the resources of the ME, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, other Eurasian countries.

 

[rupol2000]

damn, Chinese are coming!
it's time to throw myself out of the window.
what was that American general's name?

The time will come and they themselves will throw out of the windows if this continues.

The Uighurs, too, probably joked in their time. Their truth is not throw out of windows, but sold for organs.

By the way, in the video they say that the Chinese have annexed 2 islands that did not belong to them before.

 

[Donald H]

A must read for those interested in continuing this discussion:

Brazil, Kazakhstan and the Grand Chess Board - BRASILWIRE

Like Brazil under Workers Party Governance, Kazakhstan has tried to maintain a balancing act by maintaining good relations with China, Russia, the US and Europe. Like Brazil under the PT, this isn’t good enough for the US State Department by Marcelo Zero* Kazakhstan, a country of 2.7 million km2...

www.brasilwire.com

However, the US strategy seems to be to always try to destabilize all regimes that are friendly to Russia and China, even if they are not hostile to Washington.

If the US succeeds in putting a decisively pro-Washington regime in Kazakhstan that is hostile to Russia and China, as it did in Ukraine, Moscow’s strategy of uniting the former Soviet republics and China’s strategy of broadening its influence with the New Silk Road would be substantially compromised. There is a lot at stake.

Despite its remote chances of success, this bet by Washington reveals the degree of aggressiveness of US foreign policy, especially under the Biden administration.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

You're still dancing around the main issue Tom. That is, competition between America and Russia/China to gain control over the resources of the ME, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, other Eurasian countries.

That at this moment is NOT the main issue. Not to me. Nor to Kazakhs. The main issue is what is best for the people in this part of the world — and another war between great powers, a foreigners’ “struggle to gain control” of Kazakhstan’s resources, is definitely just about the LAST thing that is needed here!

The utterly corrupt family/clan/patronage network ruling the country up to this time was at least sufficiently unified to hold in check both Western and Russian or Chinese appetites to dominate the country, while allowing for economic development. THAT is the way things should remain in terms of ALL the great powers!

That is also the best guarantee for peace and domestic harmony and all around future development. The next priority is of course spreading the economic gains fairly, which certainly will require social/economic reforms and democratization of the political system.

If such changes can / must happen rapidly through “revolution” that would be fine with me. But given the real situation in the country this is extremely unlikely. There is at present no such revolutionary force in Kazakhstan. There is not even a genuinely democratic party. Such a force or party sure as hell will not be encouraged by ANY of the great contending powers!

 

[ESay]

It could be a wet dream, as you suggest. Ukraine could be a wet dream too. I'm more concerned with Russia's resolve to stand their ground and that could lead to world war

There won't be any world war. Stop falling to this silly Russian propaganda. Some compromise will be find concerning European security.

 

[rupol2000]

However, the US strategy seems to be to always try to destabilize all regimes that are friendly to Russia and China, even if they are not hostile to Washington

no, now the US government is playing on the side of China, this is the left flank

 

[rupol2000]

There won't be any world war. Stop falling to this silly Russian propaganda. Some compromise will be find concerning European security.

Russia vs USA? It's ridiculous.