What is happening in Kazakhstan?

[Siberian]

we

Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.

That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.

The arrest of the old security director on high treason charges, and other reports too, strongly indicate that a power struggle at the top opened the door to different forces from below. The Russian role, the American role, the role of criminal and tribal elements, the degree of repressed Kazakh / Russian conflict, the role if any of religion, these are all still unclear.

Kazakhstan is the size of West Europe, has a small population density and tremendous oil & gas resources. Hence there are immense temptations for elite corruption, as in Saudi Arabia, Libya and similar oil-producing countries.

We need to understand that the tiny civic freedom groups there, mostly underground, were NOT leading the struggle, and were evidently as surprised as others by its sudden outbreak and ferociousness.

The standard Western psychological profile of “imperial” Russians — applied to the recent Kazakhstan events — is misleading and obscures much. Kazakhs were a nomadic people who were first partly Russified and then transformed by their Soviet experience — not entirely for the worse. The “new” Kazakhstan that arose after independence eventually brought more wealth and much more inequality than existed under the final decades of the USSR. There are real conflicting geopolitical interests here, tremendous economic and social differences, as well as deep corruption. Though there is much hatred for rich and corrupt ruling groups in society, it is still far from clear that the recent violence inaugurated the beginning of any future “revolution against authoritarianism.”

Russia, not wanting any more “color revolutions” on its periphery, naturally made itself available to prop up the recently established Kazakh governing administration, suddenly faced with this unexpected and violent uprising. This was no Soviet “invasion” or “occupation” however. There are not enough Russians left for the political situation to resemble China’s Xinjiang. The Kazakhs — like the Uighurs a Turkic-speaking people — are mostly Muslims, but have never been religious fanatics. Still, their nationalist pride is growing.

Splits among Kazakh’s own kleptocratic factions in the country’s domestic ruling class, and in its security forces, may have precipitated the violence. But what lies deeper is unclear. Was there any role of “foreign influencers” in bribing certain factions to take action? Was everything spontaneous? We may never know. We do not even know if there are any “domestic oligarchs” or political factions genuinely interested in bringing democracy to the country.

It will be interesting to see if the great Western oil and commercial interests, like Chevron, that have been allowed in recent decades to grow dramatically and now have huge sums invested there, will continue to be welcome. We shouldn’t assume that the West really has the best interests of the people of Kazakhstan in mind, anymore than our corporations and military have had the real interests of the people of the Middle East in mind. The best future for the people of landlocked Kazakhstan will almost certainly require careful balancing of trade and relations with Russia, China and the West.

Well, Tom, an excellent article!
When you really want it, you write not worse than I do ...

 

[JGalt]

Nobody is asking you to care, or making you read my OP.
Please go troll somewhere else.

Frankly, I can’t imagine why anyone would care …
about you, your circus, or the monkey on your back.

So why do you care? Is this something that affects you directly? Do you have vested interests, family members, ties to, or are somehow involved in a country that most people couldn't even pick out on a map?

Is this something that's going to influence my daily life today, tomorrow, or in the future?

And by "monkey on your back", is that supposed to be an insinuation that I have some sort of chemical dependency? I can assure you, I don't.

 

[Natural Citizen]

One of the most alarming realities is that most of our elected drones have absolutely no clue whatsoever about world history. And certainly no idea whatsoever how deeply relationships between other nations historically go. Our so-called leaders are basically just plain dumb.

Anyway. Guess just wait an see if Nuland shows up with cookies again.

In the mean time, the dollar isn't very promising in the eyes of many nations these days. And no matter how catchy a space force sounds, other nations are just as, if not more so, technologically advanced than the west and you're just not gonna be able to interfere with international financial clearing infrastructure up there where it all happens, as in the past. A lot of nations have merged their satellite infrastructure over the last decade. It's not for nothing.

 

[Donald H]

This OP is not about Ukraine and China, where I have made my position clear many times.

As you should know my now, I am one of the fiercest opponents here of U.S. imperialism and of of its destructive and adventurist wars abroad. I am an opponent of our “Security State” and its mistaken policies toward China and Russia. I am also an opponent of Russian and Chinese authoritarianism. Are you?

As for U.S. directly instigating the protests, I’ve found no sign of that,

I don't know. And then my suspicions were validated when you got in your bit on the Uighurs. You made it about China too. And you only vaguely hint about being opposed to US foreign policy, then state that the US isn't directly instigating the protests.

Kazakh president fails to quell protests, ex-Soviet states offer help

A Russia-led security alliance of ex-Soviet states will send peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan, Armenia's prime minister said on Thursday, after the Kazakh president appealed for their help in quelling violent and deadly protests.

www.reuters.com

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Russian accusations that the United States had instigated the unrest were false.

Now you've heard.

 

[Siberian]

If I am ot mistaken American way to define danger consists of weighing 2 factors - potential and willingness to use it.

You may doubt about American willingness but obviously the US has potential to blow up most post Soviet republics since it has been feeding numerous NGOs all over post-USSR space.

Then, willingness.

Kazakstan is less important than Ukraine, but much more capable of quick escalation into extremely bloody struggle.
We saw how Kazakhs immediately, without any demonstrations first, turned to bloodshed. 2 policemen were beheaded.

So, in Ukraine scale and bloodyness of the conflict will be less and will require smaller Russian force to police occupied territories.
If the US wants to tie Russia's hands prior US-China conflict, Kazakhstan is even a better choice than Ukraine.

Then, if the US wants to break Russian-China alliance, Chinese jealousity about growing Russian influence in Central Adia is what is required.

Then, Kazakhstan is the shortest way from China to Europe.
If the US blocks Chinese sea trade Kazakstan becomes absolutely vital for both sides.

If the US makes huge efforts to block Nord Stream-2 - will it be quietly ignoring all 3 factors I mentioned?

 

[Donald H]

we

Well, Tom, an excellent article!
When you really want it, you write not worse than I do ...

Russia will be leaving peacekeepers or troop, however you want to frame it, behind. They will be actively watching for outside foreign interference.

And such honesty on US involvement and interests!

 

[Siberian]

Same to the trolling “ The Sage of Main Street. “

By the way, some of the protesters were skilled oil workers. Many were evidently ordinary workers legitimately furious with a dictatorship that enriches corrupt millionaire politicians and ignores their fundamental interests. Why do you assume they were all just “primitive and unproductive Muslim savages”?

you mix stages, regions and clans.

oil workers were in the very beginning, in the Western Kaxakhstan and of Junior Zhuz.
While most vicious fights were taking place later, in the South and in the territory of Senior Zhuz.

 

[Siberian]

Russia will be leaving peacekeepers or troop, however you want to frame it, behind. They will be actively watching for outside foreign interference.

And such honesty on US involvement and interests!

Russian troops will leave Kazakhstan within days. And I doubt Russian influence grew there except in setting a precedent of direct involvement.

But newly appointed information minister of Kazakhstan is an open Russophobe, as well I presume Tokaev will have to appease Kazakh nationalists on account of Russians...

So, despite Russian involvement and suppression of mass disorder I would say the provocation has partially reached its goal.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Russian troops will leave Kazakhstan within days. And I doubt Russian influence grew there except in setting a precedent of direct involvement.

But newly appointed information minister of Kazakhstan is an open Russophobe, as well I presume Tokaev will have to appease Kazakh nationalists on account of Russians...

So, despite Russian involvement and suppression of mass disorder I would say the provocation has partially reached its goal.

Yes, this conclusion is possible. As I say, it is too early to draw many definite conclusions. Certainly it seems that more Russians will decide to leave Kazakhstan, where many lived for decades, even generations. That would certainly be tragic.

 

[JohnDB]

Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.

That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.

The arrest of the old security director on high treason charges, and other reports too, strongly indicate that a power struggle at the top opened the door to different forces from below. The Russian role, the American role, the role of criminal and tribal elements, the degree of repressed Kazakh / Russian conflict, the role if any of religion, these are all still unclear.

Kazakhstan is the size of West Europe, has a small population density and tremendous oil & gas resources. Hence there are immense temptations for elite corruption, as in Saudi Arabia, Libya and similar oil-producing countries.

We need to understand that the tiny civic freedom groups there, mostly underground, were NOT leading the struggle, and were evidently as surprised as others by its sudden outbreak and ferociousness.

The standard Western psychological profile of “imperial” Russians — applied to the recent Kazakhstan events — is misleading and obscures much. Kazakhs were a nomadic people who were first partly Russified and then transformed by their Soviet experience — not entirely for the worse. The “new” Kazakhstan that arose after independence eventually brought more wealth and much more inequality than existed under the final decades of the USSR. There are real conflicting geopolitical interests here, tremendous economic and social differences, as well as deep corruption. Though there is much hatred for rich and corrupt ruling groups in society, it is still far from clear that the recent violence inaugurated the beginning of any future “revolution against authoritarianism.”

Russia, not wanting any more “color revolutions” on its periphery, naturally made itself available to prop up the recently established Kazakh governing administration, suddenly faced with this unexpected and violent uprising. This was no Soviet “invasion” or “occupation” however. There are not enough Russians left for the political situation to resemble China’s Xinjiang. The Kazakhs — like the Uighurs a Turkic-speaking people — are mostly Muslims, but have never been religious fanatics. Still, their nationalist pride is growing.

Splits among Kazakh’s own kleptocratic factions in the country’s domestic ruling class, and in its security forces, may have precipitated the violence. But what lies deeper is unclear. Was there any role of “foreign influencers” in bribing certain factions to take action? Was everything spontaneous? We may never know. We do not even know if there are any “domestic oligarchs” or political factions genuinely interested in bringing democracy to the country.

It will be interesting to see if the great Western oil and commercial interests, like Chevron, that have been allowed in recent decades to grow dramatically and now have huge sums invested there, will continue to be welcome. We shouldn’t assume that the West really has the best interests of the people of Kazakhstan in mind, anymore than our corporations and military have had the real interests of the people of the Middle East in mind. The best future for the people of landlocked Kazakhstan will almost certainly require careful balancing of trade and relations with Russia, China and the West.

You have completely ignored one key resource they have...

Uranium mining.

About half of the uranium mined and used in nuclear power plants comes from Kazakhstan.
The workers die in droves from lung cancer from the radon gas. All the Vanadium is as well. (The two elements are usually found together)

And Ukraine generates surplus power it sells to the EU... even though they buy a lot of power in petroleum and natural gas.

The two countries together work well...but Russian interference with corruption has poisoned both nations to where they are both unstable.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Yes, there is uranium. I wasn’t trying to write an essay centered on Kazakh natural resources. I also didn’t mention other resources, pipeline issues, Chinese investments, or the importance of the “Belt & Road.”

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Donald H — You still haven’t answered me:

“I am also an opponent of Russian and Chinese authoritarianism. Are you?”

 

[Siberian]

You have completely ignored one key resource they have...

Uranium mining.

About half of the uranium mined and used in nuclear power plants comes from Kazakhstan.
The workers die in droves from lung cancer from the radon gas. All the Vanadium is as well. (The two elements are usually found together)

And Ukraine generates surplus power it sells to the EU... even though they buy a lot of power in petroleum and natural gas.

The two countries together work well...but Russian interference with corruption has poisoned both nations to where they are both unstable.

Damn, John, there is not a single post of yours without some nonsense, you spread misinformation, better stick to expressing opinions, not what you consider to be facts.

Ukraine imports electricity from Russia and Belarus. Most Ukrainian nuclear power plants are reaching limits of safe exploitation, they are becoming new possible Chernobyls. And the fact that Ukraine is trying to fit American fuel cells into Russian made reactors, while the US nuclear industty is degrading and incapable of proper work, leads to numerous shut downs and decreases safety, of course.

Add to this that due to its Russophobia Ukraine is determined (but fails for several years, due to reality) to cut itself from Russian electric system and switch to European system, which is now energy unsufficient after Germany is destroying its nuclear and coal generation (to be checked though if it is permanently unsufficient, I just know the EU imports electricity from Russia).

Add to this that most coal is left in Donbass and Ukraine imposed blockade on it (or on itself, taking in account it cut coal supply to own power plants).

Plus with years of various provocations and all sorts of stealing, non-paying for delivered gas, monopolist raising of transit fees, political actions, sanctions against Russia - it is coming to Russia stopping gas transit in a couple of years.

I would say Ukraine led itself to planned energy catastrophe in a couple of years. Even if no new Chernobyl happens.

Ukraine is a disaster, and it is one of reasons Russia will not occupy it. Maybe just a litle bit, Historically Russian half of it... After Ukrain burns itself in hand made carastrophe

 

[JohnDB]

Damn, John, there is not a single post of yours without some nonsense, you spread misinformation, better stick to expressing opinions, not what you consider to be facts.

Ukraine imports electricity from Russia and Belarus. Most Ukrainian nuclear power plants are reaching limits of safe exploitation, they are becoming new possible Chernobyls. And the fact that Ukraine is trying to fit American fuel cells into Russian made reactors, while the US nuclear industty is degrading and incapable of proper work, leads to numerous shut downs and decreases safety, of course.

Add to this that due to its Russophobia Ukraine is determined (but fails for several years, due to reality) to cut itself from Russian electric system and switch to European system, which is now energy unsufficient after Germany is destroying its nuclear and coal generation (to be checked though if it is permanently unsufficient, I just know the EU imports electricity from Russia).

Add to this that most coal is left in Donbass and Ukraine imposed blockade on it (or on itself, taking in account it cut coal supply to own power plants).

Plus with years of various provocations and all sorts of stealing, non-paying for delivered gas, monopolist raising of transit fees, political actions, sanctions against Russia - it is coming to Russia stopping gas transit in a couple of years.

I would say Ukraine led itself to planned energy catastrophe in a couple of years. Even if no new Chernobyl happens.

Ukraine is a disaster, and it is one of reasons Russia will not occupy it. Maybe just a litle bit, Historically Russian half of it... After Ukrain burns itself in hand made carastrophe

Westinghouse got the contract to sell Ukraine fuel rods for the power plants back in '19 I think...it's a 5 year contract.

Ukraine's power plants and power grid do need repairs as they all do...and with the quarantines and supply chain interruptions I'm sure that everything is in rough shape.

Nuclear power plants don't just blow up. They are designed to shut down unless everything is in perfect order.

Chernobyl happened because safeties were bypassed to run some worthless experiments...and an accident did happen.

They aren't experimenting anymore.

I'm not exactly a fan of nuclear power because of the brown sites they create. But since they are running... keep them running. Yes they will be due for a major overhaul soon. But not for another few years. (After the Westinghouse contract)

And Westinghouse is a major multi-national corporation...they provide electricity generation services to a LOT of countries... Including France where the spent fuel rods go to get reprocessed.

Isolationism is not a good idea...ever. Just ask Russia who acts like they are part of the world but really isn't. They are increasingly isolating themselves from the rest of the world. PRC went bankrupt because of it...now that they have joined in they need some lessons in how to behave appropriately.

Russia is the last holdout. They need the world but they don't want the world. Apparently they would rather be the king of a trash dump than a lord of a fine house.

Integrity and openness raises ALL Ships...and Russia doesn't have much of either.

 

[Siberian]

Westinghouse got the contract to sell Ukraine fuel rods for the power plants back in '19 I think...it's a 5 year contract.

Ukraine's power plants and power grid do need repairs as they all do...and with the quarantines and supply chain interruptions I'm sure that everything is in rough shape.

Nuclear power plants don't just blow up. They are designed to shut down unless everything is in perfect order.

Chernobyl happened because safeties were bypassed to run some worthless experiments...and an accident did happen.

They aren't experimenting anymore.

I'm not exactly a fan of nuclear power because of the brown sites they create. But since they are running... keep them running. Yes they will be due for a major overhaul soon. But not for another few years. (After the Westinghouse contract)

And Westinghouse is a major multi-national corporation...they provide electricity generation services to a LOT of countries... Including France where the spent fuel rods go to get reprocessed.

Isolationism is not a good idea...ever. Just ask Russia who acts like they are part of the world but really isn't. They are increasingly isolating themselves from the rest of the world. PRC went bankrupt because of it...now that they have joined in they need some lessons in how to behave appropriately.

Russia is the last holdout. They need the world but they don't want the world. Apparently they would rather be the king of a trash dump than a lord of a fine house.

Integrity and openness raises ALL Ships...and Russia doesn't have much of either.

isn't Westinghouse a bankrupt, and which has degraded to inability to build reactors?

Ukrainian deal is a mockery, it will not be fulfilled

 

[rupol2000]

Ukraine imports electricity from Russia and Belarus

This is an economically illiterate tendentious judgment. All countries import, the question is how much. The balance there is shifted towards exports.

У кого Украина покупает электроэнергию и кому продает: перечень стран — Finance.ua

За 2021 год Украина импортировала до 1 миллиарда киловатт в час,...

news.finance.ua

 

[rupol2000]

By the way, Belarus is the economic ballast of Russia. They are mainly engaged in re-gluing labels. they buy Russian raw materials at very preferential prices, but it is not clear why these indulgences are. In addition, a significant part of the Belarusian goods is a very low-quality counterfeit.

 

[rupol2000]

If we compare the energy system of Belarus and Ukraine, the comparison will clearly be not in favor of Belarus. There are about 10 hydroelectric power stations on the Dnieper alone in Ukraine, there is a powerful nuclear power industry, a developed coal industry, and many thermal power plants tied to metallurgical production. Without a doubt, this is an energy giant.

 

[Siberian]

Westinghouse got the contract to sell Ukraine fuel rods for the power plants back in '19 I think...it's a 5 year contract.

Ukraine's power plants and power grid do need repairs as they all do...and with the quarantines and supply chain interruptions I'm sure that everything is in rough shape.

Nuclear power plants don't just blow up. They are designed to shut down unless everything is in perfect order.

Chernobyl happened because safeties were bypassed to run some worthless experiments...and an accident did happen.

They aren't experimenting anymore.

I'm not exactly a fan of nuclear power because of the brown sites they create. But since they are running... keep them running. Yes they will be due for a major overhaul soon. But not for another few years. (After the Westinghouse contract)

And Westinghouse is a major multi-national corporation...they provide electricity generation services to a LOT of countries... Including France where the spent fuel rods go to get reprocessed.

Isolationism is not a good idea...ever. Just ask Russia who acts like they are part of the world but really isn't. They are increasingly isolating themselves from the rest of the world. PRC went bankrupt because of it...now that they have joined in they need some lessons in how to behave appropriately.

Russia is the last holdout. They need the world but they don't want the world. Apparently they would rather be the king of a trash dump than a lord of a fine house.

Integrity and openness raises ALL Ships...and Russia doesn't have much of either.

John, how many reactors have been built by Westinghouse in last 40 years?
Does Westinghouse has nessessary expertise at all?

 

[Siberian]

If we compare the energy system of Belarus and Ukraine, the comparison will clearly be not in favor of Belarus. There are about 10 hydroelectric power stations on the Dnieper alone in Ukraine, there is a powerful nuclear power industry, a developed coal industry, and many thermal power plants tied to metallurgical production. Without a doubt, this is an energy giant.

USSR/Russia provided you with big legacy in electric power production, which you are successfully losing.
in 5-10 years your nuclear plants will be nuclear time bombs.