What if Pakistan goes under?

[Diuretic]

I thought this was an interesting piece in the Sydney Morning Herald:

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.

The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.

Pakistan in danger of collapse

 

[Toro]

Pakistan is a basket-case.

 

[Bootneck]

I thought this was an interesting piece in the Sydney Morning Herald:

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.

The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.

Pakistan in danger of collapse

Wotcha Diuretic! How you going mate?

The situation in Pakistan is indeed something to worry about. If it does go, and there's a more than outside chance that it will, the implications don't bear thinking about. It will pale all other global trouble spots into insignificance. Kilcullen is right. I'm surprised we are not hearing more about this through media channels. It's a subject we often discussed out in the Stan.

 

[PoliticalChic]

I thought this was an interesting piece in the Sydney Morning Herald:

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.

The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.

Pakistan in danger of collapse

The problem of Afghanistan, and the potential problems with Pakistan may prove more than one administration can handle.

In Afghanistan, a practically stone-age society, really extends into the mountains of Pakistan. Both have to be dealt with simultaneously, and possibly in the same manner: the nationalist jihadists, like the Tehrik-i-Talibani Pakistan (TTP), have to be divided from the global or caliphate jihadists, like Al Queda.

This was the successful plan used in Iraq.

But if the Pakistani government cannot summon up the will, and if the ISI cannot be more nationalistic rather than Islamist, and without the will of the EU to fight, I don't think the US will be able to either control Pakistan nor Afghanistan.

The wild card is the best local military outside of NATO: the Turks.

 

[Diuretic]

I thought this was an interesting piece in the Sydney Morning Herald:

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.

The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.

Pakistan in danger of collapse

Wotcha Diuretic! How you going mate?

The situation in Pakistan is indeed something to worry about. If it does go, and there's a more than outside chance that it will, the implications don't bear thinking about. It will pale all other global trouble spots into insignificance. Kilcullen is right. I'm surprised we are not hearing more about this through media channels. It's a subject we often discussed out in the Stan.

Good here thanks Boot, good to see all okay with you.

I have to admit I had to read this article twice when I saw it online. 100 nukes in the hands of AQ or the Taleban.

 

[Diuretic]

I thought this was an interesting piece in the Sydney Morning Herald:

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.

The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.

Pakistan in danger of collapse

The problem of Afghanistan, and the potential problems with Pakistan may prove more than one administration can handle.

In Afghanistan, a practically stone-age society, really extends into the mountains of Pakistan. Both have to be dealt with simultaneously, and possibly in the same manner: the nationalist jihadists, like the Tehrik-i-Talibani Pakistan (TTP), have to be divided from the global or caliphate jihadists, like Al Queda.

This was the successful plan used in Iraq.

But if the Pakistani government cannot summon up the will, and if the ISI cannot be more nationalistic rather than Islamist, and without the will of the EU to fight, I don't think the US will be able to either control Pakistan nor Afghanistan.

The wild card is the best local military outside of NATO: the Turks.

That's an interesting point. I just wonder if it will come down to NATO and the Russians and their allies going in to stop a terrorist regime taking over in Pakistan. I know that's unlikely and probably completly unrealistic but from what I've read it would appear Pakistan as a state is crumbling.

 

[PoliticalChic]

I thought this was an interesting piece in the Sydney Morning Herald:



Pakistan in danger of collapse

The problem of Afghanistan, and the potential problems with Pakistan may prove more than one administration can handle.

In Afghanistan, a practically stone-age society, really extends into the mountains of Pakistan. Both have to be dealt with simultaneously, and possibly in the same manner: the nationalist jihadists, like the Tehrik-i-Talibani Pakistan (TTP), have to be divided from the global or caliphate jihadists, like Al Queda.

This was the successful plan used in Iraq.

But if the Pakistani government cannot summon up the will, and if the ISI cannot be more nationalistic rather than Islamist, and without the will of the EU to fight, I don't think the US will be able to either control Pakistan nor Afghanistan.

The wild card is the best local military outside of NATO: the Turks.

That's an interesting point. I just wonder if it will come down to NATO and the Russians and their allies going in to stop a terrorist regime taking over in Pakistan. I know that's unlikely and probably completly unrealistic but from what I've read it would appear Pakistan as a state is crumbling.

Russia has no beef with Pakistan, and didn't care when Khan was handing out nuclear secrets, and look how they behave toward Iran.

NATO reflects the EU: do nothing.

Now there is another nuclear power which would be concerned, especially if Pakistan became more fundementalist: India.

We live in interesting times.

 

[Bootneck]

NATO reflects the EU: do nothing.

So that's what I've been doing in Afghanistan. Nothing! Or could it be that you are posting drivel?

 

[Xenophon]

If it goes you could see a nuclear exchange and millions of people killed.

 

[PoliticalChic]

NATO reflects the EU: do nothing.

So that's what I've been doing in Afghanistan. Nothing! Or could it be that you are posting drivel?

Don't take it personally.

My meaning is that among fighting troops the only languages you can hear are English, Polish and, if they're Canadian, French.

No German, no French-French, no Italian, and the rest of EU talk.

Feel better?

God bless and stay safe.

 

[PoliticalChic]

The problem of Afghanistan, and the potential problems with Pakistan may prove more than one administration can handle.

In Afghanistan, a practically stone-age society, really extends into the mountains of Pakistan. Both have to be dealt with simultaneously, and possibly in the same manner: the nationalist jihadists, like the Tehrik-i-Talibani Pakistan (TTP), have to be divided from the global or caliphate jihadists, like Al Queda.

This was the successful plan used in Iraq.

But if the Pakistani government cannot summon up the will, and if the ISI cannot be more nationalistic rather than Islamist, and without the will of the EU to fight, I don't think the US will be able to either control Pakistan nor Afghanistan.

The wild card is the best local military outside of NATO: the Turks.

That's an interesting point. I just wonder if it will come down to NATO and the Russians and their allies going in to stop a terrorist regime taking over in Pakistan. I know that's unlikely and probably completly unrealistic but from what I've read it would appear Pakistan as a state is crumbling.

Russia has no beef with Pakistan, and didn't care when Khan was handing out nuclear secrets, and look how they behave toward Iran.

NATO reflects the EU: do nothing.

Now there is another nuclear power which would be concerned, especially if Pakistan became more fundementalist: India.

We live in interesting times.

"India, for its part, is concerned by Obama's repeated assertions that its refusal to transfer control over the disputed Jammu and Kashmir provinces to Pakistan inspires Pakistani terror against India. It is equally distressed at the Obama administration's refusal to make ending Pakistan's support for jihadist terror groups attacking India a central component of its strategy for contending with Pakistan and Afghanistan. In general, Indian officials have expressed deep concern over the Obama administration's apparent lack of regard for India as an ally and a significant strategic counterweight to China. "
Column One: Surviving in a post-American world | Columnists | Jerusalem Post

 

[editec]

Goes under where, exactly?

You mean their current administration falls and a more radicalized Moselm regime takes over?

That'll be bad because then Alqada will have a sanctuary...wit a minute...they already have a santuary in Pakistan.

I suppose the nuclear issue is one to be concerned with...especially if you're living in India.

 

[Diuretic]

I was thinking more of a Somalia-type situation where there is no central government.

 

[Truthmatters]

what a mess.


I hope we all survive what Bush left us.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Goes under where, exactly?

You mean their current administration falls and a more radicalized Moselm regime takes over?

That'll be bad because then Alqada will have a sanctuary...wit a minute...they already have a santuary in Pakistan.

I suppose the nuclear issue is one to be concerned with...especially if you're living in India.

The current leadership is weak, and there could very well be a more Islamist government, one with 100 nuclear weapons.

But there is a question of whether Al Queda would be in charge. The secret service, ISI, is a force unto itself, and regularly plays one faction against the other.

Al Queda is made of fighters from many nations, and is interested in an international caliphate of the ummah.

But there are many nationalist jihadists in Pakistan, who may or may not be interested in joining with Al Queda, and the current government is attempting to drive a wedge between the two.

Interesting that a few weeks ago, in upstate NY, a Vietnamese immigrant killed 12, and Baitullah Mehsud of Tehrik-i-Talibani Pakistan, and Umar Farooq, of the Fedayeen al-Islam, both groups militant jihadists of the tribal areas, called the press to claim credit. The FBI discounted both, as they are not international.

The point is that if the present government falls, we may see Afghanistan-type sanctuary for all sorts of groups, and threats to the US.

 

[manu1959]

what a mess.

I hope we all survive what Bush left us.

bush caused the potential collapse of pakistan.....?

 

[PoliticalChic]

what a mess.


I hope we all survive what Bush left us.

Right on, right on, right on!

And I'll never forgive Bush for what he did to Gertie:
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[editec]

Well it's fairly clear that another unstable land full off pissed off Islamicists won't be a good thing.

I'd expect a strong man on the right, probably from the military to take over again if things go haywire.

His attitude about the USA isn't clear until we see who that strong man is.