Sandy Shanks
Gold Member
- Jul 10, 2018
- 3,550
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- #1
The circumstances surrounding the 2016 election are so peculiar, it is extremely unlikely they will be duplicated.
In 2016, the Democratic Party chose the worst possible candidate. Clinton was unpopular, under FBI investigation, and was lugging around a ton of baggage. Trump still managed to lose the popular vote.
Joe Biden is not a Hillary Clinton.
The Times wrote, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."
No, they were not!
National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result. One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill
The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."
Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.
It was too late.
The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."
During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
In 2016, the Democratic Party chose the worst possible candidate. Clinton was unpopular, under FBI investigation, and was lugging around a ton of baggage. Trump still managed to lose the popular vote.
Joe Biden is not a Hillary Clinton.
The Times wrote, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong."
No, they were not!
National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result. One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill
The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too."
Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new.
It was too late.
The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points."
During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
