- Banned
- #1,201
Part of the reason I think the polls may be way off is from looking at the RCP averages of Florida vs the USA as a whole:
If we look at Florida,
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden
And the US as a whole:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
We find that Florida and the US had very similar Trump/Biden totals, but over the last month the lead for Biden has all but disappeared in FL while it has stayed the same in the US.
The major difference is that pollsters have been factoring in the early voting data, and as they have done that, Biden's lead has essentially disappeared.
This is "The Model" colliding with reality.
Could the same be true for the US as a whole? we'll have to see. The error bars are far far higher than the modelers want to admit.... probably high enough to make their models useless.
I don't listen to the polls. I predicted this narrowing of numbers for months now because it happens every election. The Republican is always behind and catches up in the end. If anything, the polls should be swinging Biden's way with this new Covid surge.
People are getting tired of this Covid shit. They just want it to end.
Biden is running on a platform to shut more things down and even a stupid Federal requirement to wear a mask.
I suspect Biden lost votes by being a Covid Karen asshole.
Besides, nobody in their right mind would think that the post Covid economy would be better under this Biden clown than under Trump.