It's determined by facts, all of which say you're completely wrong.
Your idiot theory does not explain the directly observed stratospheric cooling, so it's wrong.
Your idiot theory does not explain the directly observed increased in backradiation, so it's wrong.
Your idiot theory does not explain the directly observed polar amplificiation, so it's wrong.
Your idiot theory does not explain the directly observed decrease in outgoing longwave in the GHG bands, so it's wrong.
This isn't a debate. The facts say you're wrong, so you're wrong. No amount of Gish galloping and spamming graphs will change that.
And your idiot theory has nothing backing it up. "IT'S A NATURAL CYCLE!" is just handwaving, the invoking of magic. Natural cycles have causes. Neither you nor any denier can explain what's driving this current "natural cycle". It's very definitely not the sun, since temperature have been skyrocketing as solar output has decreased.