There are many issues that one has to consider regarding Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. Its not as simple as" I'll nuke you if you nuke us".
You make a number of good points, however they are not new and each of your points could have been used when India, Pakistan, North Korea all went nuclear.
1. If Iran obtains nuclear weapons, Iran may feel that it can take actions with its conventional and unconventional forces that it would not have taken in the past. They may see nuclear weapons as a deterent to other countries intervening in whatever actions they may take in the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel or Lebanon. Iran with nuclear weapons may mean bolder actions by Iran, and less interference from the international community in regards to such actions. .
1. If Pakistan obtains nuclear weapons, Iran may feel that it can take actions with its conventional and unconventional forces that it would not have taken in the past. They may see nuclear weapons as a deterent to other countries intervening in whatever actions they may take in the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel or Lebanon. Pakistan with nuclear weapons may mean bolder actions by Pakistan, and less interference from the international community in regards to such actions.
2. If India obtains nuclear weapons, it will obviously do whatever it takes to prevent them from being destroyed. India certainly would never want to be in a position where its nuclear forces were destroyed in a first strike by Pakistan. The danger is that India could by mistake launch a nuclear attack on a nation such as Pakistan if they thought a first strike against their nuclear forces was already in progress. Its the Use them or lose them senerio and it will be alive and well the second India deploys nuclear weapons for the first time.
3. If North Korea develops nuclear weapons, the following countries may also decide they need nuclear weapons as well: South Korea, Japan, and Thailand. Several more Pacific Rim countries might also jump on the bandwagon. That does not make for a safer world at all.
4. As dangerous as the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States was there were over time, many confidence building measures that both countries built up to reduce the chances of a mistake or a mis-caculation of starting a nuclear war. But none of these things will be in place the day Iran decides to deploy its first nuclear weapon.
Was true when India, Pakistan, North Korea went nuclear.
So there are multiple problems with Iran developing nuclear weapons that have nothing to do with Iran giving nuclear weapons to terrorist or openly deciding to launch and unprovoked attack with nuclear weapons. Iran with nuclear weapons will be a serious and complex problem.
Actually there are multiple problems when any country developing nuclear weapons that have nothing to do with that country giving nuclear weapons to terrorist or openly deciding to launch and unprovoked attack with nuclear weapons. Any country with nuclear weapons will be a serious and complex problem. The question is, "Is it the responsibility of the United States to determine who is allow to have a Nuclear Program?"
