War Azeris and Armenians plunge into war as Putin and Turkey look on. geostrategic tensions between them over proxy

This will blow over in a week or two. The fact is that nobody outside a local level wants this war, and it wouldn’t really benefit anyone. Besides, this kinda stuff pops off every few years.
 
"

Russia has a grand strategy in its foreign policy realm, it certainly involves the purposeful creation of conflict zones and their management across the post-Soviet space. The fall of the Soviet Union was indeed the biggest geopolitical setback for Moscow as the country instantly lost such large portions of land on a scale rarely, if ever, seen in recorded history. But keeping 11 buffer states around Russia has remained a cornerstone of the Kremlin’s foreign policy against Western influence. Politicians in Russia clearly saw that because of Russia’s low economic potential, the South Caucasus states would inevitably turn to Europe. The same would happen on Russia’s western frontier in Moldova and Ukraine, which have been more susceptible to Western economic and military potential because of geographic proximity and historical interconnections.


And it can be rightly said that Russia has been quite successful in fomenting and managing Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and east Ukraine conflicts in the last 25 years. From Moscow’s perspective, through these conflicts Moldova’s, Georgia’s and Ukraine’s pro-western aspirations would be stopped if not permanently, then at least significantly hampered. Even in “Nagorno Karabakh,” .... Russia having the highest biggest stakes through which it exercises influence on Azerbaijan’s foreign policy and thus limits Baku’s potential to be more influential in such.


However, it is becoming more and more difficult to manage five breakaway conflicts together. First, financial support for the regimes (except for “Nagorno Karabakh”) comes from Moscow. To this should be added military expenses related to the stationing of military bases there. Third, Russian support for breakaway regimes has created a veritable arc of anti-Russian states along almost the entirety of Russia’s southern and western borders.

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The Azerbaijani (read A. and Turkish) army has destroyed the third Khojavend motorized rifle regiment of the Armenian (read A. and Putin´s) armed forces, stationed in Khojavand region, the Azerbaijani defense ministry stated Tuesday.


“As a result of the strikes by the Azerbaijani army, the 3rd Khojavend motorized rifle regiment of the Armenian armed forces, stationed in Khojavand region, was destroyed," chief of the press service of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry Col. Vagif Dargahli told the Azertac state news agency.


“As a result, the Armenian side suffered heavy losses; the regiment was completely defeated,” Dargahli noted.

"
I think you need be more sceptical about military boast, especially about military boast produced by the little (but proud) Caucasian nations.
In fact, there are only few skirmishes in the mountains with some tanks (from both sides) destroyed.
It seems that something big is going to happen. The rhetoric of Aliev is too 'straightforward'.
your Muscovite horde (what left from the red army ) is just a bunch of cheap whores

My?? Sober up, dude. It is your country signed the agreement with Russia on the Union State.

"His" country signed the agreement with Ireland and Scotland. He don't even understand Russian language.

I dont think that he is a Brit. Why is he so obsessed with Russia then?

May be it's his McJob. You know: "low-paying, low-prestige dead-end job that requires few skills and offers very little chance of intracompany advancement"
He obviously works according a book, and it is a very simple book.

My second bet is he is a Lithuanian.
A Lithuanian hardly can be so ignorant about Russia.
 
"

Russia has a grand strategy in its foreign policy realm, it certainly involves the purposeful creation of conflict zones and their management across the post-Soviet space. The fall of the Soviet Union was indeed the biggest geopolitical setback for Moscow as the country instantly lost such large portions of land on a scale rarely, if ever, seen in recorded history. But keeping 11 buffer states around Russia has remained a cornerstone of the Kremlin’s foreign policy against Western influence. Politicians in Russia clearly saw that because of Russia’s low economic potential, the South Caucasus states would inevitably turn to Europe. The same would happen on Russia’s western frontier in Moldova and Ukraine, which have been more susceptible to Western economic and military potential because of geographic proximity and historical interconnections.


And it can be rightly said that Russia has been quite successful in fomenting and managing Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and east Ukraine conflicts in the last 25 years. From Moscow’s perspective, through these conflicts Moldova’s, Georgia’s and Ukraine’s pro-western aspirations would be stopped if not permanently, then at least significantly hampered. Even in “Nagorno Karabakh,” .... Russia having the highest biggest stakes through which it exercises influence on Azerbaijan’s foreign policy and thus limits Baku’s potential to be more influential in such.


However, it is becoming more and more difficult to manage five breakaway conflicts together. First, financial support for the regimes (except for “Nagorno Karabakh”) comes from Moscow. To this should be added military expenses related to the stationing of military bases there. Third, Russian support for breakaway regimes has created a veritable arc of anti-Russian states along almost the entirety of Russia’s southern and western borders.

"

View attachment 395504

Your map is obsolete. Why Donbass, Syria, Venezuela, Libya are not highlighted?
Let's see the map of Turkish military influence.
SAVE_20201001_160750.jpg

But there is a difference between Russia and Turkey. Russia has nukes.
 
be it's his McJob. You know: "low-paying, low-prestige dead-end job that requires few skills and offers very little chance of intracompany advancement"
He obviously works according a book, and it is a very simple book
Dont completely get this. Are you implying that he works for some 'agency'?

Lithuanian hardly can be so ignorant about Russia
He just isn't too bright.
 
be it's his McJob. You know: "low-paying, low-prestige dead-end job that requires few skills and offers very little chance of intracompany advancement"
He obviously works according a book, and it is a very simple book
Dont completely get this. Are you implying that he works for some 'agency'?
More likely something like 77th Brigade.



Lithuanian hardly can be so ignorant about Russia
He just isn't too bright.
May be. Anyway, this three aren't mutually exclusive, are they?
A stupid, badly educated Lithuanian, serving in the British Army? Why not?
 
be it's his McJob. You know: "low-paying, low-prestige dead-end job that requires few skills and offers very little chance of intracompany advancement"
He obviously works according a book, and it is a very simple book
Dont completely get this. Are you implying that he works for some 'agency'?
More likely something like 77th Brigade.



Lithuanian hardly can be so ignorant about Russia
He just isn't too bright.
May be. Anyway, this three aren't mutually exclusive, are they?
A stupid, badly educated Lithuanian, serving in the British Army? Why not?
I don't think that a Lithuanian can serve in the British army. Especially, if that one doesn't have any value and does a job every British can do.
 
So, if there will be 14th Russo-Turkish war, started by Turkey without the US support - Turkey have no chances to win.
There won't be a direct war between them. In the Karabakh conflict Turkey will use mercenaries and quite limited amount of the armed forces, pretending that they are not there.

About Russia... I dont know. From the one hand, it cant allow Armenia (a member of ODKB) lose this war. From the other, a direct involvement will mean a declaring of war against Azerbaijan and downing their relations with Turkey to zero. It means cancelling pipeline projects with them and possible cutting off of Russians from Bosphorus.

Given the current war in Syria and low oil prices, it will be the burden not too easy for the Russians.

I think they won't dare to directly engage in the conflict. Especially given the fact, they officially dont recognize Nagorno-Karabakh and consider it a part of Azerbaijan. They will try to use diplomatic 'front' to stop this conflict.
 
This will blow over in a week or two. The fact is that nobody outside a local level wants this war, and it wouldn’t really benefit anyone. Besides, this kinda stuff pops off every few years.
Russia can benefit from retaking the Straits, but they need really proved facts of the Turkish aggression against Russian or Armenian military units to start a "regional war". Not just Armenian propaganda, but the real facts.
 
be it's his McJob. You know: "low-paying, low-prestige dead-end job that requires few skills and offers very little chance of intracompany advancement"
He obviously works according a book, and it is a very simple book
Dont completely get this. Are you implying that he works for some 'agency'?
More likely something like 77th Brigade.



Lithuanian hardly can be so ignorant about Russia
He just isn't too bright.
May be. Anyway, this three aren't mutually exclusive, are they?
A stupid, badly educated Lithuanian, serving in the British Army? Why not?
I don't think that a Lithuanian can serve in the British army. Especially, if that one doesn't have any value and does a job every British can do.
An ethnic Lithuanian with the British citizenship? Why not?
"British troops are being taught by a special unit of soldiers from Lithuania how to identify and counter attempts by Russia to manipulate public opinion.

The Baltic state, which is on the front line of President Putin’s propaganda war with the West, is sharing its experiences with 77th Brigade, a relatively new branch of the British army that deals with information warfare.

“The UK has a great deal to learn from the disinformation campaign which is being waged against Lithuania”, a defence source said.

Britain has been under attack from Russian soft power for a long time, he said, referring to a tactic used by governments to gain influence without resorting to military force."
 
So, if there will be 14th Russo-Turkish war, started by Turkey without the US support - Turkey have no chances to win.
There won't be a direct war between them. In the Karabakh conflict Turkey will use mercenaries and quite limited amount of the armed forces, pretending that they are not there.

About Russia... I dont know. From the one hand, it cant allow Armenia (a member of ODKB) lose this war. From the other, a direct involvement will mean a declaring of war against Azerbaijan and downing their relations with Turkey to zero. It means cancelling pipeline projects with them and possible cutting off of Russians from Bosphorus.

Given the current war in Syria and low oil prices, it will be the burden not too easy for the Russians.
Retaking the Straits could be much more profitable than making pipelines. And the closing the Straits means open declaration of war anyway.

I think they won't dare to directly engage in the conflict. Especially given the fact, they officially dont recognize Nagorno-Karabakh and consider it a part of Azerbaijan. They will try to use diplomatic 'front' to stop this conflict.
I think, that the Russians would prefer keeping status quo (or A-A trench warfare with both sides buying Russian weapon) to regional war against Turkey.
But they clearly prefer an open regional war against isolated Turkey to return of Azerbaijan's control over Nagorno-Karabakh. (Something like inverted Kosovo War).
May be, they prefer even a total war against the whole NATO to losing ODKB. Actually that's why NATO do not back Turkey in this avanture.

 
be it's his McJob. You know: "low-paying, low-prestige dead-end job that requires few skills and offers very little chance of intracompany advancement"
He obviously works according a book, and it is a very simple book
Dont completely get this. Are you implying that he works for some 'agency'?

Lithuanian hardly can be so ignorant about Russia
He just isn't too bright.
one for sure, the old sovok with nickname belorussiya is a very "bright " one
 
How Muscovy is helping Armenia portray the Azerbaijan clash as a holy war, we see here 2 standards toward Armenian Azerbaijan nations , great reading for those who are buying Muscovite propaganda.ru, or believe that "Muslim " blood has a different color . Moscow and its poodles have to leave Azerbaijan (UN reslutions are clear on this) state territory !

"The same playbook used by the Assad regime in Syria is being deployed in Armenia to pitch this as an Islam versus Christianity battle - when it is anything but...


Amazingly, Armenia has concurrently engaged in a campaign to obtain recognition for what it claims as a genocide over 100 years ago. The United States recently passed legislation recognising the Armenian genocide without ever mentioning Armenia’s ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijanis. It was the result of many years of lobbying by Armenia as well as the United States Congress' animus towards Turkey.

The United Nations Security Council has adopted resolutions condemning Armenia’s ethnic cleansing. The resolutions refer to Armenia as an “occupying force.”

...


Notably, the Prime Minister talks about defending “the identity” of Armenia. Prime Minister Pashinyan makes it clear that he has his eyes on Nagorno-Karabakh. While trying to make it seem like a defensive position he is really acknowledging that Armenia is fighting in the territory recognised universally as Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, journalists discovered that Russian military trucks were entering Armenia from Iran at the Julfa crossing. The battle lines have been clearly drawn. Armenia has aligned itself with Russia and Iran. Azerbaijan will rely on its close relationship with Turkey. Many of the statements from Russia, Armenia and Iran have been focused on Turkey as much as they have been on Azerbaijan. Much of the narrative building has also been reminiscent of the campaigns conducted by Russia and Iran on Assad’s behalf. ...

Armenia's supporters have pulled out the same playbook that was used in Syria. Portray the battle as a fight between Christians and Muslims, east vs west.

In Syria, Assad falsely claimed the mantle of “the protector of Christians”— and countries like Greece and Russia promoted that propaganda and furthered the sectarian message. The Assad regime has killed and tortured hundreds of Christians and 60 percent of the churches destroyed during the war have been at the hands of the Assad regime.

The battle – in Armenia’s narrative – is no longer about land, it is now about a religious battle inciting images of crusaders and Jesus on the cross.



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What we now see is that Armenia has learned from Assad and its close relationship with Russia to play the Christian card. They claim to be defending Christianity against Islamic terrorism.

Armenia is trying to say it is “Armenia or the terrorists” just as Assad tried to make you believe that it was “Assad or the terrorists.”
It’s a simple and effective narrative for people who are ignorant about the realities of the conflict.

The result in Syria has been hundreds of thousands dead Syrian women, children and men. We must not fall for the lie again. The battle over Nagorno-Karabakh has everything to do with raw aggression for land, ethnic nationalism and nothing to do with religion.

" How Russia is helping Armenia portray the Azerbaijan clash as a holy war
 

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