Despite the strongly pro-Israeli tendency of the US foreign-policy elite, the American public shows a more nuanced appreciation of the complex dynamics of the Arab-Israeli peace process and the central role that Jerusalem holds for Arabs and Israelis alike. On the whole, a plurality of Americans express their support for a shared Jerusalem as well as their opposition to moving the US Embassy to the disputed city. This is one of the major findings of a national public-opinion poll undertaken this month by the American Committee on Jerusalem and conducted by the respected Zogby International of New York.
Zogby International interviewed 1,018 randomly selected, likely voters nationwide to gauge American attitudes toward the status of Jerusalem, its future, moving the US Embassy to the city, and the various claims made by Arabs and Israelis regarding their ties to the city. Two samples taken showed varying results. The first sample used the names "Israel" and "Palestine" and the second referred to "Country A" and "Country B." Overall, almost two-thirds of respondents in sample I and sample II say they are following events in the Middle East somewhat closely.
Principal findings of the survey shed light on how the US public views the status of Jerusalem, and the historical, religious, land ownership, and residential claims of each side. Firstly: a centering of American public opinion concerning the city's position. With regard to the status of Jerusalem, a plurality (45-46 percent) expressed a preference for the concept of a divided or shared Jerusalem. Support for a "shared Jerusalem" was double that favoring Israeli control over the entire city (20-23 percent). About 17-18 percent were not sure.
This majority support was most significant among 18-29 year-olds, Democrats, liberals, African-Americans, Hispanics, and union households. The young (18-29 year-olds) and Democrats are more likely to think Jerusalem should be shared than are the elderly and Republicans. The young are also more likely than the elderly to disagree with an embassy move.The young also feel more strongly about intervention in sample I than in sample II. When the terms "Israel" and "Palestine" are removed, the young increase their support of Palestine's historical claims to Jerusalem more than any other group (from 28 percent to 40 percent).
Support also increases among the young on current residency claims for Palestinians from 45 percent to 54 percent.In other words, the poll shows that youth and minority groups tend to be more open-minded and progressive on the question of Palestine. My own experience, as an academic at an American university, also reveals that youth and minority groups view the Arab-Israeli conflict in a much more complex manner than do their grandparents and parents and other older racial and sociopolitical groups. These findings call for creative strategies to connect further with these important societal segments and broaden the message to reach the rest.
Secondly, as for Israeli and Palestinian claims over Jerusalem, a majority of respondents expressed support for Israel on the basis of historical and religious claims over the city. However, Palestinian claims over the city were endorsed by a majority of respondents on the basis of property and legal claims and current residency claims. The latter, i.e. residency claims, present the Palestinians with the most convincing argument before American public opinion. The nuances of the findings are revealing.
For example, there is a drop in American support or sympathy for Israel in the second sample when the terms "Country A" and "Country B" replace "Israel" and "Palestine." The poll shows that when asking about historical claims, "overall, support for the Palestinians increases from 19 percent to 28 percent when 'Country B' is read ? and support for Palestinians' historical claim to Jerusalem increases from more than one quarter in sample I, to 40 percent in sample II." Furthermore, sympathies shift when religious ties and land-ownership claims are separated as claims. When asked about property and legal rights, there is little change in support from sample I to sample II.
However, when the questions of religious ties and land ownership rights are compared, sympathy for the Palestinians increases. In sample I, 19 percent support the Palestinians' religious claims, increasing to 35 percent on the question of land ownership/legal rights. In sample II, 21 percent support the Palestinians' religious claims, increasing to 43 percent on the question of land ownership/ legal rights. Support for Israel drops in these cases, though the numbers are less dramatic than in the increase of support for Palestine. On the question of residency claims, support for the Palestinians increases from 36 percent to 47 percent. This increase reflects a jump in almost every sub-group. Despite the nuances of the findings, the point to highlight is that the Palestinians should stress their concrete, material claims and rights over the city, which are seen to be convincing by a majority of Americans.
The other side of the coin revolves around the ability of Israel and its friends in the United States to persuade Americans of their historical and religious claims over the city. Regardless of how much ink Arabs and Palestinians spill in their attempt to counter the Israeli historical assertions, it seems unlikely that Americans will buy the Arab counter-argument in the near future. For now, to be persuasive and effective, Arabs and Palestinians must focus their efforts on the legal, residency rights over Jerusalem. Thirdly, as for the transfer of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a majority of 55-62 percent disagreed with such a move. Only 17-20 percent agreed that the embassy should be relocated in Jerusalem.
This majority opposition to the embassy transfer was evident in all regions of the country, all political parties, all age groups, both genders, and various religious denominations. A December 2000 poll arrived at a similar conclusion. When asked whether they agreed with then-President-elect George W. Bush's promise "to begin the process of moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem" or with the position of former President Bill Clinton, who said that "no US action should be taken with regard to the embassy until the Israelis and Palestinians agree to the final status of the city," 57 percent agreed with Clinton's view. Only 23.5 percent agreed with Bush's campaign position.
The critical question that needs to be examined is, if most Americans disagree with moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, why do US politicians compete with each other and declare their support for such a move? What lies at the heart of the dichotomy between the US public and the ruling establishment? Does the latter put its vested interests ahead of national security considerations and justice as well? This central finding turns the conventional wisdom - regarding the enlightenment of the elite and ignorance of the masses - on its head.
The findings of the poll clearly show that American civil society views the Arab-Israeli tragedy more compassionately and fairly than does the US foreign-policy establishment. Arabs and Arab-American groups need to reorient their strategy in the United States by investing critical human and intellectual resources in building solid bridges to US civil-society organizations and institutions. Their traditional focus on the ruling institutions have not been fruitful or effective.
It is time that Arabs and Arab-American groups broaden their conception of the US political scene to include its vibrant and dynamic civil society and tap into its many layers and shades of opinion and beliefs. Yes, it is a long-term strategy; but at least it holds the promise of affecting real change in the making of American foreign policy toward the Arab-Israeli peace process a policy that would be based on historical reconciliation, and a just and secure peace for all.
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