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True, but the reason is important. The rate is expected to be higher due to people entering/re-entering the labor force...people unemployed not because they lost their jobs, but because they are just starting to look for work and haven't been sucessful yet. Counter-intuitively, an increase in the UE rate for this reason is a positive sign for recovery.Glad you're all happy that initial claims are down, that is a good thing. Yet, the unemployment rate is expected to be higher.
Well, if they take work, then they're not unemployed, so looking at the UE rate, you do have to go past that and look at the change in level of part-time workers and reason for working part time...in increase in employment with an increase in people working part time for economic reasons (temporarily working part time due to cut hours or failure to find full time work) is not a really positive indicator. Reciept or eligibility of benefits has nothing to do with the UE rate, though...you are counted as unemployed regardless of ever having recieved benefits or even never having had a job at all. The only thing that matters is looking for work.There are literally tens of thousands of people who've exhausted their benefits, even their 'extended benefits' while taking what work they can get, to offset their unemployed status.
People often talk about "real unemployment" but never state what makes it "real" except for a preference for a different definition. There's no absolute "real" definition of unemployed.Real unemployment is much higher than the 'expected' 9.7.
True, but the reason is important. The rate is expected to be higher due to people entering/re-entering the labor force...people unemployed not because they lost their jobs, but because they are just starting to look for work and haven't been sucessful yet. Counter-intuitively, an increase in the UE rate for this reason is a positive sign for recovery.Glad you're all happy that initial claims are down, that is a good thing. Yet, the unemployment rate is expected to be higher.
Well, if they take work, then they're not unemployed, so looking at the UE rate, you do have to go past that and look at the change in level of part-time workers and reason for working part time...in increase in employment with an increase in people working part time for economic reasons (temporarily working part time due to cut hours or failure to find full time work) is not a really positive indicator. Reciept or eligibility of benefits has nothing to do with the UE rate, though...you are counted as unemployed regardless of ever having recieved benefits or even never having had a job at all. The only thing that matters is looking for work.There are literally tens of thousands of people who've exhausted their benefits, even their 'extended benefits' while taking what work they can get, to offset their unemployed status.
People often talk about "real unemployment" but never state what makes it "real" except for a preference for a different definition. There's no absolute "real" definition of unemployed.Real unemployment is much higher than the 'expected' 9.7.
Tell that to the people who don't have jobs and would like to be employed.
heres the scoop, I am sooo tired of hearing this BS...did they use their favorite term- "unexpectedly "...?
the economy MUST have approx. 125-150K new jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth and new entries into the job market, we need a GDP of at least 1.5 to 2.0% as a sign of life, a heat beat.
wait till the Q3 GDP number comes out .......Goldman thinks it will be negative. Even a 2% would be a bollocks. If so bus. will go even deeper into discounting goods, , not hire as much for seasonal help and consumer confidence will take another hit. it feeds off itself.
Tell that to the people who don't have jobs and would like to be employed.
Tell what to them? That they're not unemployed if they're not looking for a job? Sure, why not? Technical definitions are for a purpose, not to make people feel better
Tell that to the people who don't have jobs and would like to be employed.
Tell what to them? That they're not unemployed if they're not looking for a job? Sure, why not? Technical definitions are for a purpose, not to make people feel better
You are not getting the point, again tens of thousands of folks, that have always worked, now are working part-time. They continue to look for work, it is just not out there. If their part-time job was created only as a stop gap in hiring a 'regular employee', and the demand calls for getting rid of the job, that new employer will not be paying the unemployment, the part-timer is still certified to resume full benefits. So one uses their time to keep looking, networking, and working part-time.
Not enough to keep up with bills, mortgages, etc. But working some is better than not.
I understand perfectly. The actual numbers for August 2010 are:You are not getting the point, again tens of thousands of folks, that have always worked, now are working part-time.
I understand perfectly. The actual numbers for August 2010 are:You are not getting the point, again tens of thousands of folks, that have always worked, now are working part-time.
Total Part time (<35hrs/week) = 27,418
Part time for non-economic reasons (choice, child-care/family/transportation/medical issues) = 18,558,000
Part time due to slack business = 6,380,000
Part time due to inability to find full time work = 2,347,000
total part time for economic reasons = 8,860,000
Compare this to pre-recession (Aug 2007 as a random date):
Total Part time (<35hrs/week) = 24,266,000
Part time for non-economic reasons (choice, child-care/family/transportation/medical issues) = 19,665,000
Part time due to slack business = 2,991,000
Part time due to inability to find full time work = 1,186,000
total part time for economic reasons = 4,601,000
So clearly things have gotten worse, and it is being tracked. So I'm not sure what your complaint is. No they're not included as "unemployed" because they're not unemployed. But they are being tracked and the problem is known.
Calling them "unemployed" as part of the official numbers would only make it unclear how difficult it is or is not to find a job at all.
Source: Historical Data Table A-8 of the Employment Situation Report (seasonally adjusted all industries)
Underemployment, at 18.8%, is up from 18.6% at the end of Augustby Dennis Jacobe, Chief EconomistPRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.
Much more: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.1% in September
I don't care if they're good or bad for the administration. Is a decline in the number of UI claims good? Yes. Does it mean the entire unemployment picture is good? Of course not. There are all kinds of aspects to look at...employed, and whether they're full time, part time, and why they're part time...unemployed and why they're unemployed (esp. layoffs vs entrants/re-entrants).Go back and look at the original post and the one following. These numbers are not good for Obama and Co., to pretend they are is foolish.
I don't care if they're good or bad for the administration. Is a decline in the number of UI claims good? Yes. Does it mean the entire unemployment picture is good? Of course not. There are all kinds of aspects to look at...employed, and whether they're full time, part time, and why they're part time...unemployed and why they're unemployed (esp. layoffs vs entrants/re-entrants).Go back and look at the original post and the one following. These numbers are not good for Obama and Co., to pretend they are is foolish.
The Gallup numbers don't look promising for tomorrow's release, but overall the situation has gotten marginally better this year. Not good, but better. It's slow and difficult and ugly, but things are moving in the right direction.
Gallup: Unemployment rate back over 10%
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posted at 11:36 am on October 7, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
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In yet another harbinger of tomorrows official jobless report, Gallup shows a sharp increase in unemployment for September, pushing their estimate of joblessness to 10.1%. The pollster also warns that tomorrows figure will miss some of the change, which will likely lull some into a sense that no action is needed:
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the governments unemployment report on Friday.
The governments final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallups modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesdays ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the governments national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallups mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.
The underemployment number should remain steady, Gallup predicts, but not because businesses are hiring. Gallup predicts that their equivalent to the U-6 number will hit between 18.6% and 18.8% because they see fewer people working part-time but looking for full-time employment. More part-timers had their positions converted to full time, but businesses arent hiring part-timers to add to their staffs now.
This has implications beyond employment or the elections, too. With unemployment rising again, the upcoming holiday season could be another disaster like 2008. Job insecurity will result in more savings and more frugality in a season that makes or breaks retail businesses. The pending tax hikes will also have some with cash less likely to part with it as well. With that in mind, retailers are going to hire fewer people this holiday season in anticipation of lower demand, and Gallup warns this will mean a brutal fourth quarter for the economy.
At the same time, the Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims fell for the third straight week to a four-month low at 445,000. This hits at the lower end of the range seen for all of 2010, so its not exactly unexpected. It does, however, mean that either Gallups data doesnt account entirely for the job swings, or that Gallups data is more recent on job losses and we can expect to see the jobless claims start to rise again in the next couple of weeks, as those who lost their jobs in the final two weeks become eligible to apply for benefits...