UK Election May 2015

[Mindlight]

In all honesty, it wouldn't surprise me if the Tories were voted back in. But time has begun to tick on the so-called Conservative Party now that their grassroots supporters have seen them for what they are; and now have an alternative that is openly and fiercely hostile towards the European Union: UKIP.

Cameron was quoted earlier today as saying he would not rule out a coalition with UKIP. I do not believe for a minute that Conservatives can get enough votes to form a government unaided.

As to Scotland, they have unleashed a drive for English Independence - something they will likely come to regret.

In the South UKIP are the greatest threat to the Tories and in the North they are the greatest threat to Labour. In Scotland the rise of the SNP looks likely to displace a lot of Labour MPs north of the border. Ironically this might benefit the Tories. The SNP may well want a Tory government as it is the most likely to sway the hearts of Scottish voters to consider independence next time round. In a great many constituencies local polling is going to be crucial this time round as voters will make local choices to support their favourite party or to ensure that their least favourite party does not win. Tactical voting of this sort may well determine the election.

A Cameron- Farage alliance might be the best solution for Britain. Most British people do not really want to leave the EU in my view but they want change and this combination may well be the best one to force real changes with Cameron as a moderating force on UKIP demands and a referendum as the final arbiter of whether we stay or leave.

 

[Meathead]

UKIP replaces the Liberals as the third party and form a strongly Eurosceptic government under Cameron. If Greece votes in SYRIZA, the UKIP might come in second.

 

[Mindlight]

1. Conservatives

2. Conservatives / LibDems

3. Economy

I second that. I would like to see David Cameron continue as the PM of UK. I am not sure if UK has term limit like US has. Cameron is doing a great job. He has lowered unemployment rate. He has cracked down on anti social elements that were destroying the social fabric of UK. The list of good things him and his cabinet has done is long. I hope people of UK will not get paranoid and end up electing some crazy people into power.

There is no limit on how many terms a GB PM can have. But as Thatcher and Blair showed the British tolerance for PMs does not really extend beyond 3 terms.

I agree about the economy the Tories are the best choice on that. I disagree with Camerons gay marriage law and euthanasia bill but the other parties are actually more extreme than the Tories on those issues.

 

[Mindlight]

UKIP replaces the Liberals as the third party and form a strongly Eurosceptic government under Cameron. If Greece votes in SYRIZA, the UKIP might come in second.

If recent byelections and polls are any thing to go by the Lib Dems are facing a complete meltdown at the next election. There are some very good constituency MPs in the mix there and some of those may keep their seats but I think we could be looking at the majority of Lib Dems being thrown out at the next election. The Tories and UKIP are the most likely to pick up these seats

United Kingdom general election 2015 - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

 

[Mindlight]

I hope people of UK will not get paranoid and end up electing some crazy people into power.

Not much worry. Labour is not likely to dump Milliband so they have no real shot. But beware his brother......

David Milliband was more clued in than Red Ed but he is still tarred with membership of one of the most disastrous Labour administrations in history

 

[I.P.Freely]

if we leave the EU and they rescind our 0 export tariff we would see the greatest increase in unemployment the country has ever seen. Can anyone see the French allowing the UK to compete with the same terms as before.
That would lead to a mass exodus of non British firms, the stopping of any future investment and the collapse of our employment status.
Its the economy stupid.

 

[Mindlight]

if we leave the EU and they rescind our 0 export tariff we would see the greatest increase in unemployment the country has ever seen. Can anyone see the French allowing the UK to compete with the same terms as before.
That would lead to a mass exodus of non British firms, the stopping of any future investment and the collapse of our employment status.
Its the economy stupid.

I agree that the EU is important and personally I would prefer to stay in. I am not the only British citizen who benefits from the freedom of movement that allows me to work in Europe without a visa. 3 questions however:

1) Why does leaving the EU necessitate constructing loads of tariff barriers?
2) Global markets are growing faster than European ones and offer more potential to British exporters.
3) While the EU works for large multinationals and makes it easier to plan their regional trade is that the case with small and medium sized firms which are as a rule faster growing and employ more people?

The power that French president Charles de Gaul had in the EU in the 60s and which barred UK entry in the first place is no longer there. The EU is a larger organisation and in the current climate Germanys response is more important. Germany has a large trade surplus and therefore interest in UK trade and is unlikely to want to jeopardise that by putting up barriers in the event of a withdrawal. Indeed Europe as a whole has more to lose from the UK leaving than does the UK. Britain makes a net contribution to the EU budget and has a large current account deficit with the EU. So I wonder if the relationship would become more like that of Switzerland with Germany. Not in the EU but no trade barriers either.

 

[I.P.Freely]

if we leave the EU and they rescind our 0 export tariff we would see the greatest increase in unemployment the country has ever seen. Can anyone see the French allowing the UK to compete with the same terms as before.
That would lead to a mass exodus of non British firms, the stopping of any future investment and the collapse of our employment status.
Its the economy stupid.

I agree that the EU is important and personally I would prefer to stay in. I am not the only British citizen who benefits from the freedom of movement that allows me to work in Europe without a visa. 3 questions however:

1) Why does leaving the EU necessitate constructing loads of tariff barriers?
2) Global markets are growing faster than European ones and offer more potential to British exporters.
3) While the EU works for large multinationals and makes it easier to plan their regional trade is that the case with small and medium sized firms which are as a rule faster growing and employ more people?

The power that French president Charles de Gaul had in the EU in the 60s and which barred UK entry in the first place is no longer there. The EU is a larger organisation and in the current climate Germanys response is more important. Germany has a large trade surplus and therefore interest in UK trade and is unlikely to want to jeopardise that by putting up barriers in the event of a withdrawal. Indeed Europe as a whole has more to lose from the UK leaving than does the UK. Britain makes a net contribution to the EU budget and has a large current account deficit with the EU. So I wonder if the relationship would become more like that of Switzerland with Germany. Not in the EU but no trade barriers either.

1, because the rules are already in place when an eu country imports from a non eu country.Starting to import - GOV.UK
2 Global markets have always expanded that is one of the reasons why the DTI has a non EU export division.
3 How many small to medium sized companies are reliant on one of the multinationals like say Honda,Nissan or Toyota . Do you think they will stay if we leave ?

 

[Mindlight]

1, because the rules are already in place when an eu country imports from a non eu country.Starting to import - GOV.UK
2 Global markets have always expanded that is one of the reasons why the DTI has a non EU export division.
3 How many small to medium sized companies are reliant on one of the multinationals like say Honda,Nissan or Toyota . Do you think they will stay if we leave ?

1.Yes they are but there are special agreements in place in these regulations for countries like Switzerland for example. If the UK was another Switzerland then what would be the difference in terms of the tariff situation with Europe and the terms of trade it negotiates with non EU countries.

2.The point about global markets was more that being in the EU has to some extent distorted Britain's terms of trade with the rest of the world. Since the rest of the world is growing more strongly than the EU maybe there is stronger potential there. America and the Commonwealth with whom we have strong historic ties are unlikely to penalise the UK for leaving the EU. Since the EU has a trade surplus with us they are unlikely to want to penalise us for not being members either. Or if they do it will be more costly for them than us as tariffs against Europe make it harder for our strongest competitors to gain share in British markets.

3.Good point and especially with the auto industry. But not sure this is across the board and it really depends on whether the terms of trade with the EU is rewritten after leaving. But none of these firms are British anyway and the ultimate profit and advantage does not go to the UK. There will still be a demand for cars in the UK and it will still be worth building many of them here. Small and medium companies may benefit from not having to compete with stronger EU rivals and in a more globally orientated market. New companies in new markets may benefit from a new flexibility. There are ways in which the multinational companies have secured a power in the EU markets which does not actually reflect their real economic contribution in terms of jobs, growth and taxes for instance. Googles trades from Ireland and does not pay tax in the UK for example.

My greatest worries about leaving the EU are more in terms of restrictions on freedom of movement. People resent immigrants but actually this cosmopolitan and mobile labour market works very well for the UK economically.

 

[I.P.Freely]

UK exports to the EU supports 4.2 million jobs and is worth £211bn per annum . After we leave do you think the EU countries who have lost out at tender for this trade will vote for a deal on tariffs ect or grab the business.
Mass car manufacturing by Honda,Toyota etc will be moved to expanded EU sites.
The 80% CBI members said it would be a disaster foe them to leave the EU. These are British firms of whom 71% said that being a member had a very positive impact on their business. 86% said that leaving the EU would have a massive impact on UK firms ability to trade in Europe.
The people who resent immigrant can go and pick sprouts or make sandwiches.

 

[Mindlight]

UK exports to the EU supports 4.2 million jobs and is worth £211bn per annum . After we leave do you think the EU countries who have lost out at tender for this trade will vote for a deal on tariffs ect or grab the business.
Mass car manufacturing by Honda,Toyota etc will be moved to expanded EU sites.
The 80% CBI members said it would be a disaster foe them to leave the EU. These are British firms of whom 71% said that being a member had a very positive impact on their business. 86% said that leaving the EU would have a massive impact on UK firms ability to trade in Europe.
The people who resent immigrant can go and pick sprouts or make sandwiches.

Norway and Switzerland exist in a very prosperous fashion outside the EU but within the EEA of which the UK is already a member. To a considerable extent the success or otherwise of a renegotiation of Britains trading position would depend on the level to which the EU leadership would want to penalise the UK for leaving. But in such a renegotiation Britain holds important cards. No least the fact that it has a current account deficit with the EU - so it benefits far less from the EU than the EU does from the UK in trade terms.So it really is a question of how amicable a divorce we are talking about.

Another key consideration not mentioned so far is the City of London. The EU recently proposed a Financial transaction tax for instance that would have hit our banking sector quite hard. If we remain who is to say that they will not try that again in an attempt to move banks from London to Frankfurt. It is true that a great many banks may choose to move to Europe in the event of a split but others may consider a more deregulated globally orientated City of London to be a better location for their business in the long term.

90% of British jobs have nothing to do with the EU. But 80% of British businesses think that it would be bad for business to leave the EU. They are probably right but there is an element of a herd mindset here also and fear of being penalised for being a non EU business for instance. In actual reality I suspect that Britain could probably make a go of independence and after the sour grapes and heavy costs of the transition would prosper outside Europe. However I am not sure the electorate are really ready for the transition costs and we could equally well prosper within the EU. So from an economic point of view I think it would work out either way in the long run.

BBC News - UK and the EU Better off out or in

 

[I.P.Freely]

Norway and Switzerland has to abide by the same EU rules we do, they just dont have any power to alter the rules.
http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf

 

[I.P.Freely]

this is interesting, it show 31% of Liberal voter at the last election will vote Labour this time. That figure should grow as we get nearer to election day.
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015
Follow
How LibDems of #GE2010 vote today 23% don't know/won't vote Those that will vote LAB 31% LD 23% CON 17% GRN 15%

 

[Toro]

UK exports to the EU supports 4.2 million jobs and is worth £211bn per annum . After we leave do you think the EU countries who have lost out at tender for this trade will vote for a deal on tariffs ect or grab the business.
Mass car manufacturing by Honda,Toyota etc will be moved to expanded EU sites.
The 80% CBI members said it would be a disaster foe them to leave the EU. These are British firms of whom 71% said that being a member had a very positive impact on their business. 86% said that leaving the EU would have a massive impact on UK firms ability to trade in Europe.
The people who resent immigrant can go and pick sprouts or make sandwiches.

Norway and Switzerland exist in a very prosperous fashion outside the EU but within the EEA of which the UK is already a member. To a considerable extent the success or otherwise of a renegotiation of Britains trading position would depend on the level to which the EU leadership would want to penalise the UK for leaving. But in such a renegotiation Britain holds important cards. No least the fact that it has a current account deficit with the EU - so it benefits far less from the EU than the EU does from the UK in trade terms.So it really is a question of how amicable a divorce we are talking about.

Another key consideration not mentioned so far is the City of London. The EU recently proposed a Financial transaction tax for instance that would have hit our banking sector quite hard. If we remain who is to say that they will not try that again in an attempt to move banks from London to Frankfurt. It is true that a great many banks may choose to move to Europe in the event of a split but others may consider a more deregulated globally orientated City of London to be a better location for their business in the long term.

90% of British jobs have nothing to do with the EU. But 80% of British businesses think that it would be bad for business to leave the EU. They are probably right but there is an element of a herd mindset here also and fear of being penalised for being a non EU business for instance. In actual reality I suspect that Britain could probably make a go of independence and after the sour grapes and heavy costs of the transition would prosper outside Europe. However I am not sure the electorate are really ready for the transition costs and we could equally well prosper within the EU. So from an economic point of view I think it would work out either way in the long run.

BBC News - UK and the EU Better off out or in

Banks will not move from London to Frankfurt if the UK leaves. They said the same thing in the 90s when there was a debate about ditching sterling and adopting the euro. Since then, London has become more important and, outside the ECB, Frankfurt relatively less.

 

[I.P.Freely]

Is that Stevie G in your sign line.
ps the UK will not leave in my lifetime.

 

[Mindlight]

this is interesting, it show 31% of Liberal voter at the last election will vote Labour this time. That figure should grow as we get nearer to election day.
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015
Follow
How LibDems of #GE2010 vote today 23% don't know/won't vote Those that will vote LAB 31% LD 23% CON 17% GRN 15%

The UKIP numbers in that list look unlikely to me given that they just won the Europeans , 2 by elections and almost displaced Labour in a byelection also.

 

[Mindlight]

Banks will not move from London to Frankfurt if the UK leaves. They said the same thing in the 90s when there was a debate about ditching sterling and adopting the euro. Since then, London has become more important and, outside the ECB, Frankfurt relatively less.

The difference is that the City still has unfettered access to the EU despite ECB in the 90s. American banks especially are worried that we would be unable to negotiate as favourable terms outside the EU. The point they may be missing is the level of regulation and the more socialist instincts of administrations in Europe towards banks. They would not only have to move but also change their business model. The latter could cripple many banks. Again the real issue is the terms of separation and for ongoing trade. British Banks may have a surplus with Europe but other industries are in deficit. So the overall terms of trade may be favourable to Britain in leaving even if the banks take a short term hit on their EU trade. Also negotiations with the EU about the new terms of trade would take into account the overall Current account deficit which places the EU at a disadvantage if it imposes tariffs. The EU only represents 30% of the overall trade of the City and if the other 70% grows faster as a result of staying then many banks may decide to stay. But it is clear that there would be a short term hit and voters would need to be aware of that in making their votes

Banks Brexit If Britain Leaves Europe - Business Insider

 

[I.P.Freely]

this is interesting, it show 31% of Liberal voter at the last election will vote Labour this time. That figure should grow as we get nearer to election day.
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015
Follow
How LibDems of #GE2010 vote today 23% don't know/won't vote Those that will vote LAB 31% LD 23% CON 17% GRN 15%

The UKIP numbers in that list look unlikely to me given that they just won the Europeans , 2 by elections and almost displaced Labour in a byelection also.

what ukip numbers ?

 

[Toro]

Is that Stevie G in your sign line.
ps the UK will not leave in my lifetime.

ynwa

 

[Toro]

Banks will not move from London to Frankfurt if the UK leaves. They said the same thing in the 90s when there was a debate about ditching sterling and adopting the euro. Since then, London has become more important and, outside the ECB, Frankfurt relatively less.

The difference is that the City still has unfettered access to the EU despite ECB in the 90s. American banks especially are worried that we would be unable to negotiate as favourable terms outside the EU. The point they may be missing is the level of regulation and the more socialist instincts of administrations in Europe towards banks. They would not only have to move but also change their business model. The latter could cripple many banks. Again the real issue is the terms of separation and for ongoing trade. British Banks may have a surplus with Europe but other industries are in deficit. So the overall terms of trade may be favourable to Britain in leaving even if the banks take a short term hit on their EU trade. Also negotiations with the EU about the new terms of trade would take into account the overall Current account deficit which places the EU at a disadvantage if it imposes tariffs. The EU only represents 30% of the overall trade of the City and if the other 70% grows faster as a result of staying then many banks may decide to stay. But it is clear that there would be a short term hit and voters would need to be aware of that in making their votes

Banks Brexit If Britain Leaves Europe - Business Insider

That argument tells me that leaving the EU would be beneficial for UK banks. The more socialistic regulation would mean more banks leaving the EU.

EU banks outside of London right now are bit players in global capital markets. That would not change. And with the EU wanting to wean its banking system off the sovereigns, a more socialistic model will transfer even larger shares of financial services out of the EU.