Turkey looking east, turning its back on the West?

[Munin]

lol, that s a good one ... did you know that a lot of Turks are actually "white man"? (This is a result of the european conquests in Turkisch history) If you want to make a racist comment, please make one that makes sense.


Turkey would only be producing shit if it were not for its trade relations with the west (which still consists of the biggest consumer markets of the world)

We neglected the other markets. Now we care for those markets, which is possible due to end of Cold War and improved relations between Muslims and Turkey. Most of those markets have no general trade rules (WTO membership) we first had to ease political relations to ease exports to there.

(...) Turkey would only be producing shit if it were not for its trade relations with the west

What a qualified statement from an incompetent mouth.
Your graphic is from 2006. So far in 2010 about 25% of Turkish exports have gone to immediate Arab neighbourhood. Europe faces crisis, we have to diversify our markets, with that also the political engagement with those markets.


Turkey makes Newsweek cover
All the European editions of leading international news magazine Newsweek came out with a common cover: Turkey rises.

Those markets aren't rich consumer markets like Europe and the US, you again fail to see my point. My point is that European and the US consumer markets made the Turkish state richer by allowing it good trade relations with them, just like Europe and the US made China rich by allowing it to have good trade relations with them.

The richest and bigger consumer markets are in Western Countries: it s as simple as that, attaturk understood this and as a result he made Turkey a member of the Western world by making it a modern secular and industrialised country. This is the reason why Turkey has prospered so much since his rule. If Attaturk would have been a extremist religious muslimruler then things would have been much different.

I agree that it is smart to diversify your exports, but you can not deny that the European trade of the previous decades is what made Turkey to what it is today. It s also the reason why Turkey wanted to be in the European Union (not sure if it is still the case)

 

[ekrem]

(...)

Your argument is, that the West makes Turkey rich because of good trade relations.
You imply, EU gives Turkey charity.
My reply --->

EU-Turkey trade is 100 Billion €.
Turkish trade deficit with EU: 8.1 Billion €
Source EU
Turkey - Trade Statistics

Analog to your logic, Turkey makes EU rich. Not the other way round.
Turkey is itself a consumer market.
EU exports 54.1 Billion € annualy to Turkey.
Turkey is 6th biggest trade partner with EU.

Turkish jobs are directly connected to trade with EU.
As is EU jobs directly connected with export to Turkey.
No charity involved here.

 

[ekrem]

USA

Turkey has trade deficit with USA by 3.4 Billion $
FTD - Statistics - Country Data - U.S. Trade Balance with Turkey

To your logic:
If there is charity involved, it is Turkish charity for USA.

USA does not sit with Turkey on a table and says:
"Hey, you are a good friend. I give you extra preferential export of let's say 20 Billion $"
No. These things are worked out by private economy.

 

[ekrem]

And if you imply, that normal trade relations between USA and Turkey are itself a charity, then USA needs to be kicked out of WTO and brandmarked as communist State planning economy, which restricts trade relations with Turkey by legal framework.

There are no sanctions on Turkey. And there is no basis for this.
Private economy is free to have operating business between 2 countries.

 

[Munin]

I did not imply that it is charity, I imply that Turkey prospers from it and has prospered from the trade. The Turkish economy is greatly dependant on the trade with Western economies

 

[Munin]

A recent poll confirms the idea of my forum topic

Turks Look East, Polls Confirm
By BURAK EGE BEKDIL and UMIT ENGINSOY
Published: 22 Sep 2010 16:27


ANKARA - Two recent international surveys confirm Turks' changing perceptions on international matters in favor of the East and their disillusion about the West.

On Sept. 7, the U.S.-based Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Survey revealed that:
Related Topics

* Europe

■ Only 17 percent of Turks have a positive opinion of the U.S., the lowest, along with Pakistan and Egypt, among the 22 nations included in the survey. That is up from 9 percent in 2007 but down from 30 percent in 2004.

■ Those Turks with a favorable opinion of the European Union have diminished to 28 percent from 58 percent in 2004. In the meantime, Turkish support for joining the EU dropped from 68 percent in 2005 to 54 percent today.

■ Twenty-six percent of Turks have a positive opinion about Iran, 20 percent about China and 16 percent about Russia.

And on Sept. 15, another U.S.-based institution, the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Trends Survey revealed that:

■ The percentage of Turks who think EU membership would be a good thing fell from 73 percent in 2004 to 38 percent in 2010.

■ Forty-eight percent of Turks are not concerned about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. This ratio compares with 79 percent of EU residents and 86 percent of U.S. residents surveyed.

■ The percentage of Turks who think that Turkey should act in the closest cooperation with Middle East countries on international matters has doubled to 20 percent from 2009. Cooperation with the EU is favored by 13 percent and cooperation with the U.S. by 6 percent only. In other words, more Turks approve of cooperation with Middle Eastern countries than with the EU and the U.S. combined.

Turks Look East, Polls Confirm - Defense News

 

[Colin]

A recent poll confirms the idea of my forum topic

Turks Look East, Polls Confirm
By BURAK EGE BEKDIL and UMIT ENGINSOY
Published: 22 Sep 2010 16:27


ANKARA - Two recent international surveys confirm Turks' changing perceptions on international matters in favor of the East and their disillusion about the West.

On Sept. 7, the U.S.-based Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Survey revealed that:
Related Topics

* Europe

■ Only 17 percent of Turks have a positive opinion of the U.S., the lowest, along with Pakistan and Egypt, among the 22 nations included in the survey. That is up from 9 percent in 2007 but down from 30 percent in 2004.

■ Those Turks with a favorable opinion of the European Union have diminished to 28 percent from 58 percent in 2004. In the meantime, Turkish support for joining the EU dropped from 68 percent in 2005 to 54 percent today.

■ Twenty-six percent of Turks have a positive opinion about Iran, 20 percent about China and 16 percent about Russia.

And on Sept. 15, another U.S.-based institution, the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Trends Survey revealed that:

■ The percentage of Turks who think EU membership would be a good thing fell from 73 percent in 2004 to 38 percent in 2010.

■ Forty-eight percent of Turks are not concerned about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. This ratio compares with 79 percent of EU residents and 86 percent of U.S. residents surveyed.

■ The percentage of Turks who think that Turkey should act in the closest cooperation with Middle East countries on international matters has doubled to 20 percent from 2009. Cooperation with the EU is favored by 13 percent and cooperation with the U.S. by 6 percent only. In other words, more Turks approve of cooperation with Middle Eastern countries than with the EU and the U.S. combined.

Turks Look East, Polls Confirm - Defense News

Excellent news! Let's hope these figures continue to fall!

 

[ekrem]

Excellent news! Let's hope these figures continue to fall!

You seem to be from Britain as I remember.
In 2014 Lisbon treaty will come into effect which says, that a coalition of member states consisting of 35% of EU population can block any EU laws. Why this is important I will try to touch later on.

Currently the EU is ruled by a comfortable French-German Axis.
Population size:
France + Germany = 145 Million.
Italy + Britain = 120 Million.

Germany's current population of 82 Million will decrease significantly in the coming decades. You can access Statistics from the Federal Office here:
(PDF)
http://www.erfahrung-ist-zukunft.de...ojektion2050-pdf,property=publicationFile.pdf
In short:
Germany will decrease to 69 Million people till 2050. With median age rising sharply.

At around 2020, if membership happened, Turkey would surpass Germany's share within EU parliament:
Premium content | Economist.com

Turkey currently has 72 Million people. If Turkey would join EU, it would be 2nd force to dominate EU Parliament:
Today scenario

In 2030 Turkey will peak at 100 Million people.
Plus 8 Million Turks already live in Europe, mainly Germany:

Turkey would be the absolute heavyweight within the EU institutions like the European Parliament, dominateing the policy of these institutions. This you can not compare with Poland's EU membership. A membership destined for the 2nd row of seats in the concert hall.
The power balance would shift from Central Europe to the periphery of Europe.
Strongest supporters of Turkish membership also is periphery Europe, namely Britain and Italy.
They know, that with Turkey there is a potent ally to redefine power balance within EU irreversibly, given Turkey would remember her strongest supporters when time comes.
Currently France is 2nd most important member to define what the EU actually is. With Turkish entrance France would loose that position at least by 1 place.
If Britain's or Italy's initiatives within the EU would receive support from Turkey, France would loose even more in importance to influence the EU. And it is very likely, that Turkey would honour her strongest supporters in time.

A different view is, that EU is ruled by business and lobbies. The opinion of the small human is not asked. I think, that same could be said for each individual member state.
Turkey is already in EU's common market. For the business community Turkish membership to EU is just an evolution of already existing relations, the natural next step.
Turkey needs yearly growth of 8.2 % to become 10th biggest economy in world by 2023.
Currently, Turkey is 16th biggest economy in world and 6th biggest economy in Europe.

These are the growth predictions by OECD in its economic outlook Nr.86 between 2011-2017

Maybe Turkey will not become 10th biggest economy by 2023, but it will reach that position some years later.
In the Islamic world, only the 240 Million population Indonesia is our competitor for the biggest Islamic economy. But the economic weight of emerging Indonesia does not transform into geo-political weight. First, Indonesia is contained by seas and if it wants reach East-Asia it is contained by China, not to speak of Japan.
Also Indonesia is far far away from Muslim core lands.
Turkey on the other side is in immediate proximity to Muslim core lands. It is becoming the gravity center of Muslim core lands, just it has always been with the exception of 20th century.

The debate about Turkey in Europe is happening under the premise of Turkish membership. This is just a temporarily limited phase during the accession talks.
If Turkey does not join the EU, it will be an autonomous Country on the door-steps of EU.
Just saying "Turkey does not belong to EU" does not work, there are many implications to be considered. The tiny critters like Austria for example will have hard time once EU thing is over for Turkey. There is no need to be friends after that point.

As a last remark:
Whether Turkey joins EU or not is decided by Germany and Turkish population.
Everyone else does not really matter. Germany is currently most populous and biggest economy of Europe. Especially after the recent financial crisis of the PIGS, Germany is actually using its weight. Nothing happens against the will of Germany.
In Germany there are 2 big political parties: CDU and SPD. Chancellor Merkel is from CDU and is opposing Turkish membership allthoug she respects the principle of "pacta sunt servanda", so she does not torpedo the accession talks. But she makes nothing to advance the talks either.
The SPD, the other big political party, fully supports Turkish membership to EU. So do the Greens.

If today were elections, Chancellor Merkel could not form a coalition government again and SPD-Greens would be Government.
Recent polls:
(Flash Graphics)
Umfrage-Barometer: Die Sonntagsfrage - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Politik
The current coalition partner of Chancellor Merkel would not even pass the 5% threshold to come into Parliament.
Germany's population always votes plus / minus 55-60 % Left. No matter which general election.

Most people underestimate relations between Germany and Turkey, except WW2 where Turkey was neutral, Germany and Ottomans always were allies in newer history.
There is a specifical reason why Germany primarily granted Turks the status of "Gastarbeiter" (guest-worker) in the post-WW2 boom period.

 

[Marc39]

Excellent news! Let's hope these figures continue to fall!

You seem to be from Britain as I remember.
In 2014 Lisbon treaty will come into effect which says, that a coalition of member states consisting of 35% of EU population can block any EU laws. Why this is important I will try to touch later on.

Currently the EU is ruled by a comfortable French-German Axis.
Population size:
France + Germany = 145 Million.
Italy + Britain = 120 Million.

Germany's current population of 82 Million will decrease significantly in the coming decades. You can access Statistics from the Federal Office here:
(PDF)
http://www.erfahrung-ist-zukunft.de...ojektion2050-pdf,property=publicationFile.pdf
In short:
Germany will decrease to 69 Million people till 2050. With median age rising sharply.

At around 2020, if membership happened, Turkey would surpass Germany's share within EU parliament:
Premium content | Economist.com

Turkey currently has 72 Million people. If Turkey would join EU, it would be 2nd force to dominate EU Parliament:
Today scenario

In 2030 Turkey will peak at 100 Million people.
Plus 8 Million Turks already live in Europe, mainly Germany:

Turkey would be the absolute heavyweight within the EU institutions like the European Parliament, dominateing the policy of these institutions. This you can not compare with Poland's EU membership. A membership destined for the 2nd row of seats in the concert hall.
The power balance would shift from Central Europe to the periphery of Europe.
Strongest supporters of Turkish membership also is periphery Europe, namely Britain and Italy.
They know, that with Turkey there is a potent ally to redefine power balance within EU irreversibly, given Turkey would remember her strongest supporters when time comes.
Currently France is 2nd most important member to define what the EU actually is. With Turkish entrance France would loose that position at least by 1 place.
If Britain's or Italy's initiatives within the EU would receive support from Turkey, France would loose even more in importance to influence the EU. And it is very likely, that Turkey would honour her strongest supporters in time.

A different view is, that EU is ruled by business and lobbies. The opinion of the small human is not asked. I think, that same could be said for each individual member state.
Turkey is already in EU's common market. For the business community Turkish membership to EU is just an evolution of already existing relations, the natural next step.
Turkey needs yearly growth of 8.2 % to become 10th biggest economy in world by 2023.
Currently, Turkey is 16th biggest economy in world and 6th biggest economy in Europe.

These are the growth predictions by OECD in its economic outlook Nr.86 between 2011-2017

Maybe Turkey will not become 10th biggest economy by 2023, but it will reach that position some years later.
In the Islamic world, only the 240 Million population Indonesia is our competitor for the biggest Islamic economy. But the economic weight of emerging Indonesia does not transform into geo-political weight. First, Indonesia is contained by seas and if it wants reach East-Asia it is contained by China, not to speak of Japan.
Also Indonesia is far far away from Muslim core lands.
Turkey on the other side is in immediate proximity to Muslim core lands. It is becoming the gravity center of Muslim core lands, just it has always been with the exception of 20th century.

The debate about Turkey in Europe is happening under the premise of Turkish membership. This is just a temporarily limited phase during the accession talks.
If Turkey does not join the EU, it will be an autonomous Country on the door-steps of EU.
Just saying "Turkey does not belong to EU" does not work, there are many implications to be considered. The tiny critters like Austria for example will have hard time once EU thing is over for Turkey. There is no need to be friends after that point.

As a last remark:
Whether Turkey joins EU or not is decided by Germany and Turkish population.
Everyone else does not really matter. Germany is currently most populous and biggest economy of Europe. Especially after the recent financial crisis of the PIGS, Germany is actually using its weight. Nothing happens against the will of Germany.
In Germany there are 2 big political parties: CDU and SPD. Chancellor Merkel is from CDU and is opposing Turkish membership allthoug she respects the principle of "pacta sunt servanda", so she does not torpedo the accession talks. But she makes nothing to advance the talks either.
The SPD, the other big political party, fully supports Turkish membership to EU. So do the Greens.

If today were elections, Chancellor Merkel could not form a coalition government again and SPD-Greens would be Government.
Recent polls:
(Flash Graphics)
Umfrage-Barometer: Die Sonntagsfrage - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Politik
The current coalition partner of Chancellor Merkel would not even pass the 5% threshold to come into Parliament.
Germany's population always votes plus / minus 55-60 % Left. No matter which general election.

Most people underestimate relations between Germany and Turkey, except WW2 where Turkey was neutral, Germany and Ottomans always were allies in newer history.
There is a specifical reason why Germany primarily granted Turks the status of "Gastarbeiter" (guest-worker) in the post-WW2 boom period.

When might Turkey end its 20 year blockade of Armenia and its occupation of northern Cyprus?

 

[ekrem]

Turkish State Minister in Brussels:

"I am confident in the democratisation and economic prosperity of my country.
To be honest, I don't have so much confidence in your economic prosperity. We are not coming with additional burdens to the EU, we are coming to take burdens from Europe.
My new motto is: 'Hold on tight Europe, Turkey is coming to save you.'"
EUobserver / Economic realism will ease anti-Turkish feeling, Joschka Fischer says

And if we don't come, at least we'll take Muslim assets of Balkans with us into emerging East.

 

[hipeter924]

When might Turkey end its 20 year blockade of Armenia and its occupation of northern Cyprus?

Never, at least as long as the Extreme Nationalists in Turkey and Azerbaijan in power are concerned.

If human rights activists and Turkish intellectuals manage to break the power of the Extreme Nationalists:

1. Azeri refugees could return to Armenia (as well as the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh) and Armenian refugees could return to Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh would become an independent nation like Kosovo.

2. The border would open to trade between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, the new trade route from Russia through to Turkey would benefit everyone.

3. Turkey would recognize its past and exiled Turkish Intellectuals would be able to return to Turkey, Turkish banks would compensate the victims of the subsequent Genocides (just like Jews are compensated by German and European banks for the Nazi holocaust).

4. Turkey will join the European Union and adopt European Human Rights norms and Extreme Nationalists (like Ekrem) will find themselves totally cut off from political power and disowned by Turkish society.

 

[ekrem]

3. Turkey would recognize its past and exiled Turkish Intellectuals would be able to return to Turkey, Turkish banks would compensate the victims of the subsequent Genocides (just like Jews are compensated by German and European banks for the Nazi holocaust).

If Turkey joins EU or not, is not dependant on the Armenians.
There is a lot of issues from energy to security to economy.
At the end of the day, 2 factors will decide this question:

1. Do Turks want to join
2. Does Germany want Turkey to join and share its current undisputed place under the European sun.

Turkey would first match, then outpace German population.
Plus, Turkey would have largest military within EU and EU would transform into a real hard-power, with Turkey haveing a big say how that factor is going to be used.
Also EU would open into areas where it currently has limited influence like Middle-East, it would get heavily involved in these kind of issues - through Turkey.

Current EU will not anymore exist once Turkey joins.
It will be an EU opened to Asia, co-managed by Germany and Turkey. With a crying France.

 

[ekrem]

These are the real issues, not your Armenian self-centered bubble world.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyJtUT1QJQw]YouTube - Post Gaza Flotilla: Dissolution of Turkey-Israel Relations[/ame]

 

[ekrem]

Part 2:
(It's good geo-politics)

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxlfcqASJ18]YouTube - Turkey: A Gate between the West and the Muslim World?[/ame]

 

[hipeter924]

These are the real issues, not your Armenian self-centered bubble world.

YouTube - Post Gaza Flotilla: Dissolution of Turkey-Israel Relations

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMkcYufR9Qs"]YouTube - Turkish flotila IHH leader in a speech - the ship of violence.[/ame]

When the IHH dies so do you.

 

[ekrem]

When the IHH dies so do you.

IHH is not the issue here, IHH is just a tiny tool.
Despite that, it has received Parliamentary award of Honor.
It's financial base is also strong.
Now that will be fun to watch how you will kill the IHH.
As long as the IHH is classified legal in Turkey, noone can do a shit against it.

And you better watch your language connecting the word 'die' with my personality.

 

[hipeter924]

When the IHH dies so do you.

IHH is not the issue here, IHH is just a tiny tool.
Despite that, it has received Parliamentary award of Honor.
It's financial base is also strong.
Now that will be fun to watch how you will kill the IHH.
As long as the IHH is classified legal in Turkey, noone can do a shit against it.

And you better watch your language connecting the word 'die' with my personality.

I won't kill it as their fanaticism will do it for me, IHH will go the way of the Knights Templar.