Footprints: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
In 2008, the exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58.1% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. In 45 states there was a red-shift from the exit poll to the vote in favor of McCain. The 3.0% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 37 states, all but one for McCain. Obama’s landslide margin was much greater than the 9.5 million recorded.
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free . But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat. In 2004, Kerry won the state exit polls by 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%. The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote.
113 of 288 Exit Polls Exceed the Margin of Error