There's little doubt that the 4 names mentioned in the thread's title will be winning the nomination in the first half-dozen or so primaries next year.
O'rly?
December 2007. Look who is on the bottom:
That graph points to a common trend among Republicans. Their initial responses in a campaign are of the "I'm mad as hell, I want someone new" variety
That is how we get candidates like Palin, Bachmann, Cain or Gingrich polling well in 2012 and see Trump, Carson and Fiorina polling well today
Once the primaries start, the moderates take over and more traditional candidates take the lead
In past elections, I knew what you said today was correct. Not this time!
I, like you, believe that Trump is going to go away. He doesn't have credible answers for the problems he points out. His whole shtick is, "who do you want handling it other than Trump!" That is NOT a good answer.
On the other hand, everything that he has brought up will propel the eventual winner to the GOP nomination, when whomever it is brings up plausible solutions, besides "I am Trump, and am great." This is exactly why the moderates are done. The questions and problems being addressed have changed. Oh sure, we want to know about Putin, Iran, taxes, and all of the other things GOP voters always look at. But now we want to know about illegal immigration. We want to know about caps on legal immigration. We want to know about energy policy going forward, and this incessant climate change joke being taken out of it.
All of the extras I posted will determine who the GOP nominee is. Most of the rest of the stuff is cookie cutter between all of them. But if you notice, the NEW issues in this cycle have the person who brought them up in the lead, and those who also go along with it in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. Also notice, that NONE of the moderates (establishment) go along with it.
No Mr RW, you are going to get a different animal this time from the GOP. Look at what Mr Statistics (your pal I am sure) has posted...............that basically over 60% of the GOP think they got hosed by the GOP in Washington. (I am paraphrasing, not quoting, but you get the drift) Do you actually believe we are going to change course and vote Bush or Kasich? If you believe that, I have some swampland in Florida I will sell you too.
And then, may I suggest as a good citizen that you pay attention to your own post on how things can change quickly. I, like you, never buy into polls this far out. In politics, things change weekly, sometimes daily.
Here is something you can bring back to haunt me later, but I am 90% sure I am correct. Bernie Sanders will not beat ANY of the GOP candidates if he is the nominee, no matter what the polls say today. Not going to happen, no matter how hard people try to convince everyone it is so.
Unless Hillary Clinton comes out smelling like a rose; in other words exonerated before spring of next year, every GOP candidate in the top 5 will beat her, with the possible exception of Trump....and that is a toss-up.
