Trump declares a blockade of the Strait, takes Irans leverage away

[candycorn]

Please see post #250. JohnDB makes excellent points, especially that the US produces more oil than all of OPEC...

There is no mathematics in the world that puts a quarter of a billion more barrels of oil on the market.

It takes about 2-weeks to transit from Hormuz to get to the Gulf of America Mexico,

It takes much longer when the tankers don't exist. Since you're dreaming this up....they will never get here.

so that means about 10 tankers a day will enter various US ports to get oil. Houston, Corpus Christi, and Louisiana can all load oil tankers. So if they can add ~3 tankers a day each it works. I'm sure the tankers and oil terminals have people who know wtf they are doing.

Since they've come 1/2 way around the world empty and now are taking away our precious resources to be refined elsewhere (I thought the blob was interested in bringing jobs back by the way), the price of the gasoline that would be produced (if any of this was really happening) would be very high. Its a good thing this is all academic.

The more oil we export into the global oil supply the cheaper oil gets.

Ahh the old "we" argument. I don't think you realize who "we" are in this case. Oil companies.....they don't want cheaper oil sh!t brains. I swear...you guys have no working brain cells.

Yes that lower the gas price.

And the quarter of a billion barrels that are going into the tankers is going to come from where exactly?

 

[kyzr]

chinese ships are passing no problem. The US Navy didn't stop them. #TACO

If they are not carrying oil they can pass.

 

[hadit]

Didn't China sail straight through the Strait, without being stopped by the US Navy. Some blockade. Every test and humiliation makes Trump and the US weaker by the day.

Where did the ship come from? If you look, you will see it didn't come from Iran. We are blockading Iranian ships.

 

[hadit]

chinese ships are passing no problem. The US Navy didn't stop them.

#TACO

They didn't come from Iran.

 

[Zavulon]

How do they call it? TACO?

Trump declares Strait of Hormuz 'permanently open' as China intervenes

Donald Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz 'permanently open' despite his ongoing naval blockade amid growing concerns from China.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[toomuchtime_]

How do they call it? TACO?

Trump declares Strait of Hormuz 'permanently open' as China intervenes

Donald Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz 'permanently open' despite his ongoing naval blockade amid growing concerns from China.

www.dailymail.co.uk

View attachment 1244355

The US blockade of Iranian ports is still in effect but the Strait is open to all ships that are not coming or going to Iranian ports.

 

[Concerned American]

Please see post #250. JohnDB makes excellent points, especially that the US produces more oil than all of OPEC...

It takes about 2-weeks to transit from Hormuz to get to the Gulf of America, so that means about 10 tankers a day will enter various US ports to get oil. Houston, Corpus Christi, and Louisiana can all load oil tankers. So if they can add ~3 tankers a day each it works. I'm sure the tankers and oil terminals have people who know wtf they are doing.

The more oil we export into the global oil supply the cheaper oil gets. Yes that lower the gas price.

Oil is down to the $92 range currently.

 

[krichton]

Where did the ship come from? If you look, you will see it didn't come from Iran. We are blockading Iranian ships.

Two ships came directly from Iran and they were all carrying products from Iran.

We are not blockaging Iranian ships. Iran doesn't use their cargo ships to carry stuff to other countries. That makes no sense. They're an export country and they export oil. Foreign tankers come to Iran and carry oil from there back to their own countries. A chinese cargo ship was also allowed to enter Iran after the blockade went up. If all goes according to plan we will be allowing them to sail past to China delivering Iranian oil.

#TACO

 

[krichton]

How do they call it? TACO?

Trump declares Strait of Hormuz 'permanently open' as China intervenes

Donald Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz 'permanently open' despite his ongoing naval blockade amid growing concerns from China.

www.dailymail.co.uk

View attachment 1244355

TACO

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Oil is down to the $92 range currently.

*Up from $70, thanks to Trump's war of vanity

 

[toomuchtime_]

Two ships came directly from Iran and they were all carrying products from Iran.

We are not blockaging Iranian ships. Iran doesn't use their cargo ships to carry stuff to other countries. That makes no sense. They're an export country and they export oil. Foreign tankers come to Iran and carry oil from there back to their own countries. A chinese cargo ship was also allowed to enter Iran after the blockade went up. If all goes according to plan we will be allowing them to sail past to China delivering Iranian oil.

#TACO

Iran's ports are being blockaded, so no ships are allowed into Iran's ports and no ships already in one of the ports is allowed out. As for the rest of the Gulf, the US has been actively clearing the mines, and ships that are not doing business with Iran are passing safely through, the volume of shipping is low so far. As the insurance companies come to realize it is safe to pass through the Strait of Hormuz the volume of shipping will increase.

Meantime, while the blockade continues, Iran's losses will constitute about 45% of the government's budget and it is estimated that within three months Iran's economy will totally collapse.

There is no possible deal that can save the ayatollahs. Only the details need to be filled in.

 

[Zavulon]

Meantime, while the blockade continues, Iran's losses will constitute about 45% of the government's budget and it is estimated that within three months Iran's economy will totally collapse.

Same was said about Russian economy in 2015 and, then, in 2022.

And, of course, there are two questions:
1) What will America do if Iran (and, may be, Russia) withdrawing from NPT this May?
2) How good are American farmers in growing food without fertilizers and with expensive fuel?

 

[toomuchtime_]

Same was said about Russian economy in 2015 and, then, in 2022.

And, of course, there are two questions:
1) What will America do if Iran (and, may be, Russia) withdrawing from NPT this May?
2) How good are American farmers in growing food without fertilizers and with expensive fuel?

Silly questions. The Shah's government joined the NPT and the ayatollahs have been in nearly constant violation of it since taking power. If Russia were to decide to sell nukes to the ayatollahs, I doubt Putin would take the trouble to quit the NPT first.

In the worst case, the price of fertilizer will temporarily go up.

The ayatollahs have no leverage in this conflict. They tried to exercise leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and it has put them in a worse situation that they had been. The best the ayatollahs can hope for is to survive while the state crumbles around them.

 

[Zavulon]

Silly questions. The Shah's government joined the NPT and the ayatollahs have been in nearly constant violation of it since taking power.

Of course no. Ayatollahs meekly followed all the regulations and demands of NPT, and it is exactly why you are bombing them.

If Russia were to decide to sell nukes to the ayatollahs, I doubt Putin would take the trouble to quit the NPT first.

There will be NPT conference at May-June, and there are good chances that Iran and Russia will declare that they quit. And then you'll face the choice - nuke Iran and have their retaliation strike which will cost you at least few cities.

In the worst case, the price of fertilizer will temporarily go up.

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/14/11197762/us-farmer-survey-shows-majority-of-respondents-are-unable-to-afford-fertilizers/

In the real life farmers buy less fertilizers and grow lesser amounts of food.

And when people doesn't have enough of food - they vote (or fight) against their regime.

The ayatollahs have no leverage in this conflict. They tried to exercise leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and it has put them in a worse situation that they had been. The best the ayatollahs can hope for is to survive while the state crumbles around them.

Of course they have some leverages. For example they might buy (or make) nukes this summer and then American people may decide that the price of their obedience to pro-Isralis clique is too high.
American people can live with nuclear Iran. And if the regime can't - it's only regime's problems.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Of course no. Ayatollahs meekly followed all the regulations and demands of NPT, and it is exactly why you are bombing them.


There will be NPT conference at May-June, and there are good chances that Iran and Russia will declare that they quit. And then you'll face the choice - nuke Iran and have their retaliation strike which will cost you at least few cities.

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/14/11197762/us-farmer-survey-shows-majority-of-respondents-are-unable-to-afford-fertilizers/

In the real life farmers buy less fertilizers and grow lesser amounts of food.
View attachment 1244676

And when people doesn't have enough of food - they vote (or fight) against their regime.


Of course they have some leverages. For example they might buy (or make) nukes this summer and then American people may decide that the price of their obedience to pro-Isralis clique is too high.
American people can live with nuclear Iran. And if the regime can't - it's only regime's problems.

The ayatollahs have been in nearly constant violation of the npt.

AI Overview
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has officially declared Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as recently as June 12, 2025. This finding, the first such declaration in 20 years, centers on Iran's repeated failure to provide credible explanations for uranium traces detected at several undeclared sites. [1, 2, 3]
History of Secret Nuclear Sites
Iran has a documented history of building nuclear facilities in secret, often revealed only by outside intelligence or opposition groups rather than through official declarations.. [1, 2]

• Natanz and Arak (2002): Secret underground facilities at Natanz (uranium enrichment) and Arak (heavy-water production) were exposed by an Iranian opposition group.
• Fordow (2009): The discovery of a secret enrichment facility near Qom, built deep inside a mountain, deepened international suspicions.
• Isfahan Fuel Enrichment Plant (IFEP) (2025): Iran first declared this fourth enrichment facility to the IAEA on June 12, 2025, just before a wave of military strikes. The IAEA reported in 2026 that it still does not know the precise location of this facility.
• Recent Declarations: Following the June 2025 IAEA censure, Iran defiantly announced it would open an additional new enrichment site in a "secure location". [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]

Current Unresolved Safeguards Issues
The IAEA remains unable to verify if Iran's nuclear program is exclusively peaceful due to several outstanding issues: [1]

• Undeclared Uranium Traces: The IAEA has been investigating four specific undeclared locations (Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, Marivan, and Turquzabad) for more than five years. Three of these sites are believed to have been part of an undeclared structured nuclear program that existed until the early 2000s.
• Non-Cooperation at New Sites: In early 2024, the IAEA reported that Iran violated Modified Code 3.1, which requires early notification of the decision to build new nuclear facilities. Iran began construction on the IR-360 power reactor without providing required design information.
• Restricted Access: Since June 2025, Iran has restricted inspectors from accessing facilities hit by military strikes (including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan), claiming that "normal safeguards" are now "materially impracticable" due to acts of aggression. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Identified Secret Locations Under Investigation
The IAEA and international intelligence have identified several sites linked to past or present undeclared activities:

[th]Site Name [1, 2][/th][th]Nature of Concern[/th][th]Status/Details[/th] [td]Turquzabad[/td][td]Undeclared nuclear material[/td][td]Investigation ongoing; lack of Iranian cooperation.[/td] [td]Varamin[/td][td]Undeclared nuclear material[/td][td]Investigation ongoing; lack of Iranian cooperation.[/td] [td]Marivan[/td][td]Explosive testing[/td][td]IAEA assessed explosive testing occurred here in the early 2000s.[/td] [td]Lavisan-Shian[/td][td]Uranium conversion[/td][td]Violated safeguards by not declaring work on a uranium metal disc in 2003.[/td] [td]Sanjarian[/td][td]Shock-wave generator[/td][td]Alleged work on a key nuclear weapon subcomponent.[/td] [td]Minzadehei[/td][td]Covert weapons development[/td][td]Identified as a target in 2026 military strikes.[/td]

Recent Developments (2025–2026)
Following military strikes in June 2025 and early 2026 by the United States and Israel, the IAEA has lost its ability to monitor much of Iran's program. A February 2026 report stated the agency has no knowledge of the current size or composition of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. Despite the destruction of several above-ground structures, the IAEA believes underground complexes at Isfahan and Natanz may still house material sufficient for multiple nuclear weapons. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

The US imports fertilizer from Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel, so the US is unlikely to experience anything more than a temporary rise in price.

The ayatollahs have no leverage. Their insane efforts to acquire nukes is what has led to their present circumstances. Neither Russia nor China will risk war with the US to save the ayatollahs.