I do think we are headed into a recession and Trump doesn't have anything to do with it.
It will be the Greenspan, W, Obama, Bernanke recession.
If there was one person responsible for the housing bubble it was Greenspan. W and Obama helped create TARP. Obama spearheaded the porkulas package. Bernanke kept on QEing.
Add to that many of these tech companies are WAY over valued.
I almost completely agree.
Except Trump does have some responsibility for the markets.
His ridiculous - and needless - trade war rhetoric has been hurting the economy almost all year.
He should have done what he promised and cleaned out the Fed...he didn't.
I agree with all the things you say...except for saying Trump 'doesn't have anything to do with it'.
Trump's trade war and everything else you can credit with him might/will cause the recession like the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand caused WW1.
It did, but everything was at such at a boiling point that it was inevitable.
I agree it was probably inevitable.
But the ferocity of it is not being helped at all by Trump.
He should be balancing the budget, ending the Fed's full employment mandate, stopping the 'new', cheap money that continues to slosh into the economy, drop the nonsensical trade war rhetoric/tariffs and warn people about what is probably to come - so they could prepare. He is doing none of these.
All of these things will make the upcoming mess noticeably worse than it could have been otherwise.
Of course he has 'something to do with it'...he is increasing its downside.
I sense your mind is closed on this - that you simply cannot see that Trump
does have something to do with what is coming (though not the largest part - definitely. I would put that on the Fed).
So there is no point in further discussion on this.
BTW, I am an indy and despise both major parties.
We are done here...good day.