Tomorrow's "Desperation Polls" From Democrat Cable Stations And Pollsters.What Will They Report ?

[aaronleland]

The ABC poll has been oversampling Dems by 10 points. Reuters by almost 12 points. Now keep in mind the same polls say Trump has a + 6% turnout advantage.

The polls are shit.

The polls were shit in 2012 as well. Until it played out exactly as the polls showed. Sometimes reality isn't rigged.

And the polls were dead wrong in the mid terms two years ago and dead wrong in the Brexit vote. The polls in 2008 and 2012 gave Obama a +7-8% advantage. That did turn out to be correct. The polls this time are giving Hillary a +10-12% advantage.

Does anyone really believe that?

Nate Silver was right in 2008, 2012, and 2014. Now his predictions closely mirror what we are seeing in the polls.

 

[WelfareQueen]

The ABC poll has been oversampling Dems by 10 points. Reuters by almost 12 points. Now keep in mind the same polls say Trump has a + 6% turnout advantage.

The polls are shit.

The polls were shit in 2012 as well. Until it played out exactly as the polls showed. Sometimes reality isn't rigged.

And the polls were dead wrong in the mid terms two years ago and dead wrong in the Brexit vote. The polls in 2008 and 2012 gave Obama a +7-8% advantage. That did turn out to be correct. The polls this time are giving Hillary a +10-12% advantage.

Does anyone really believe that?

Nate Silver was right in 2008, 2012, and 2014. Now his predictions closely mirror what we are seeing in the polls.

Actually...you're wrong. I happened to read an article in the Huffington Post this morning critical of Nate Silver because Nate is basically saying he doesn't trust the polls this election cycle and and skewed his data in Trump's favor.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls -- All Of Them -- In Trump's Direction | Huffington Post


Nate also missed 2014 but not as bad as the main pollsters. The GOP won by 4.5% nationally, but the polls said they would only win by 1.5%. 3 points in an election is huge. Also...Nate has dropped Clinton's chances of winning every day for the last week.

 

[aaronleland]

The ABC poll has been oversampling Dems by 10 points. Reuters by almost 12 points. Now keep in mind the same polls say Trump has a + 6% turnout advantage.

The polls are shit.

The polls were shit in 2012 as well. Until it played out exactly as the polls showed. Sometimes reality isn't rigged.

And the polls were dead wrong in the mid terms two years ago and dead wrong in the Brexit vote. The polls in 2008 and 2012 gave Obama a +7-8% advantage. That did turn out to be correct. The polls this time are giving Hillary a +10-12% advantage.

Does anyone really believe that?

Nate Silver was right in 2008, 2012, and 2014. Now his predictions closely mirror what we are seeing in the polls.

Actually...you're wrong. I happened to read an article in the Huffington Post this morning critical of Nate Silver because Nate is basically saying he doesn't trust the polls this election cycle and and skewed his data in Trump's favor.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls -- All Of Them -- In Trump's Direction | Huffington Post


Nate also missed 2014 but not as bad as the main pollsters. The GOP won by 4.5% nationally, but the polls said they would only win by 1.5%. 3 points in an election is huge. Also...Nate has dropped Clinton's chances of winning every day for the last week.

One of the things I love about Nate Silver is that he's not afraid to admit when he may have been wrong. I have seen him say a few times at least that he underestimated Trump in the primaries, but won't underestimate him in the general. He'll still post his analysis using the same methodology that he did before, but will also write his own opinion pieces on what his actual views on the candidates' chances are.

As far as Silver dropping Hillary's chances of winning look no further than the biggest news story this past week. Comey came out and said when he broke the news about new emails that they may not even be significant, but some jumped to conclusions, and ran with it. Silver still has Hillary at a better chance of winning, and after today's news those numbers will likely stabilize.

Honestly, this election cycle has been so fucking crazy that I wouldn't bet anything on either candidate. You'd think everything was pretty well locked up with only two days to go, but this circus keeps on delivering laughs. I don't want it to end.

 

[WelfareQueen]

The ABC poll has been oversampling Dems by 10 points. Reuters by almost 12 points. Now keep in mind the same polls say Trump has a + 6% turnout advantage.

The polls are shit.

The polls were shit in 2012 as well. Until it played out exactly as the polls showed. Sometimes reality isn't rigged.

And the polls were dead wrong in the mid terms two years ago and dead wrong in the Brexit vote. The polls in 2008 and 2012 gave Obama a +7-8% advantage. That did turn out to be correct. The polls this time are giving Hillary a +10-12% advantage.

Does anyone really believe that?

Nate Silver was right in 2008, 2012, and 2014. Now his predictions closely mirror what we are seeing in the polls.

Actually...you're wrong. I happened to read an article in the Huffington Post this morning critical of Nate Silver because Nate is basically saying he doesn't trust the polls this election cycle and and skewed his data in Trump's favor.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls -- All Of Them -- In Trump's Direction | Huffington Post


Nate also missed 2014 but not as bad as the main pollsters. The GOP won by 4.5% nationally, but the polls said they would only win by 1.5%. 3 points in an election is huge. Also...Nate has dropped Clinton's chances of winning every day for the last week.

One of the things I love about Nate Silver is that he's not afraid to admit when he may have been wrong. I have seen him say a few times at least that he underestimated Trump in the primaries, but won't underestimate him in the general. He'll still post his analysis using the same methodology that he did before, but will also write his own opinion pieces on what his actual views on the candidates' chances are.

As far as Silver dropping Hillary's chances of winning look no further than the biggest news story this past week. Comey came out and said when he broke the news about new emails that they may not even be significant, but some jumped to conclusions, and ran with it. Silver still has Hillary at a better chance of winning, and after today's news those numbers will likely stabilize.

Honestly, this election cycle has been so fucking crazy that I wouldn't bet anything on either candidate. You'd think everything was pretty well locked up with only two days to go, but this circus keeps on delivering laughs. I don't want it to end.

I agree with your post Aaron....and yeah....I like Nate Silver as well. I think he is generally very fair. As for the polls......I have no idea although I think the race will be much tighter than the polls indicate. As of this morning Nate gave Hillary a 64% chance of winning. I think she was at 91% about a week ago.

I guess we'll all find out on Tuesday.