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Arab-Americans are throwing their support behind Barack Obama. And in a tight nationwide race, according to a poll released in Washington today, the votes of Arab-Americans could give a boost in the key swings states like Michigan to Obama over John McCain. It's not the "ethnic vote" you might imagine, however. Arab-Americans are voting the pocket book issues like most other Americans are. They're not voting in a bloc because of Middle East-related issues.
The Zogby International poll for the Arab-American Institute shows that during the Bush presidency Arab-Americans have swung more decisively behind the Democratic Party in general. The respondents overall gave Bush a 76% negative job approval rating, with even those identifying themselves as Republicans registering only a 63%-37% positive-negative rating for the incumbent president. Compared to the year Bush was elected in 2000, when the Democratic-Republican ID breakdown was almost even at 40%-38%, Arab-Americans now identify with the Democratic Party by a margin of more than 2-1. Forty-six percent called themselves Democrats, while only 20% said they were Republicans.
In a two-way race, Obama beats McCain 54% to 33%, but Obama's advantage slips if independent Ralph Nader, who is of Lebanese ancestry, and Libertarian Bob Barr, are in the contest: Obama 46%, McCain 32%, Nader 6% and Barr 1%. Nader bites into Obama's support.
Indeed, analysis released with the poll said the results indicated that Obama's backing was somewhat soft. It noted that John Kerry did much better among independent and Catholic Arab-American voters in the 2004 election than Obama did in the Zogby poll. While independents favored Kerry by 71% to 15%, Obama is tied with McCain among independents at 44% each. Arab-Americans were far more likely to support Obama if they were Muslim. Muslim respondents picked Obama over McCain by a whopping 84%-4%, while Orthodox Christians chose Obama by 47%-43% and Catholic Arab-Americans actually favored McCain over Obama, by 53% to 31%.
It may seem counterintuitive, but Arab-Americans considered jobs and the economy by far to be the most important issue in the election rather than Middle East foreign policy issues. Just 16% of Arab-Americans said they favored McCain because of his stance on foreign policy, and only 3% said that about Obama. Forty percent said they liked Obama because of his positions on domestic issues. The number one reason McCain supporters gave for backing him was "I like him as a man."
Sixty-three percent listed the economy as one of the top two issues facing the country, while only 37% listed Iraq and Middle East peace. Health care, gas prices and terrorism were all much higher among the issues than regional problems like Palestine and Lebanon. Only 1% of the respondents said either of the latter issues were among the top two issues in the election.
When it came to who was better prepared to handle the economic challenges, 52% picked Obama and 34% McCain. Likewise, 48% said Obama was better able to handle the Middle East, while 39% said McCain was.
The poll did not take a sufficient sample to determine regional attitudes, but Zogby noted that about one-third of Arab-Americans reside in five battleground states. The largest bloc, making up 5% of the state's population, live in Michigan, one of the most important swing states. The other states are Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.
There are an estimated 3.5 million Arab-Americans, making up about 1% of the population of the U.S. Almost two-thirds trace their ancestry to countries of the eastern Mediterranean Sea; Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Jordan. Roughly 70% are Christians and 20% Muslims; the poll respondents were identified as 63% Christian, 24% Muslim and 13% other/none.
The Middle East Blog - TIME
The Zogby International poll for the Arab-American Institute shows that during the Bush presidency Arab-Americans have swung more decisively behind the Democratic Party in general. The respondents overall gave Bush a 76% negative job approval rating, with even those identifying themselves as Republicans registering only a 63%-37% positive-negative rating for the incumbent president. Compared to the year Bush was elected in 2000, when the Democratic-Republican ID breakdown was almost even at 40%-38%, Arab-Americans now identify with the Democratic Party by a margin of more than 2-1. Forty-six percent called themselves Democrats, while only 20% said they were Republicans.
In a two-way race, Obama beats McCain 54% to 33%, but Obama's advantage slips if independent Ralph Nader, who is of Lebanese ancestry, and Libertarian Bob Barr, are in the contest: Obama 46%, McCain 32%, Nader 6% and Barr 1%. Nader bites into Obama's support.
Indeed, analysis released with the poll said the results indicated that Obama's backing was somewhat soft. It noted that John Kerry did much better among independent and Catholic Arab-American voters in the 2004 election than Obama did in the Zogby poll. While independents favored Kerry by 71% to 15%, Obama is tied with McCain among independents at 44% each. Arab-Americans were far more likely to support Obama if they were Muslim. Muslim respondents picked Obama over McCain by a whopping 84%-4%, while Orthodox Christians chose Obama by 47%-43% and Catholic Arab-Americans actually favored McCain over Obama, by 53% to 31%.
It may seem counterintuitive, but Arab-Americans considered jobs and the economy by far to be the most important issue in the election rather than Middle East foreign policy issues. Just 16% of Arab-Americans said they favored McCain because of his stance on foreign policy, and only 3% said that about Obama. Forty percent said they liked Obama because of his positions on domestic issues. The number one reason McCain supporters gave for backing him was "I like him as a man."
Sixty-three percent listed the economy as one of the top two issues facing the country, while only 37% listed Iraq and Middle East peace. Health care, gas prices and terrorism were all much higher among the issues than regional problems like Palestine and Lebanon. Only 1% of the respondents said either of the latter issues were among the top two issues in the election.
When it came to who was better prepared to handle the economic challenges, 52% picked Obama and 34% McCain. Likewise, 48% said Obama was better able to handle the Middle East, while 39% said McCain was.
The poll did not take a sufficient sample to determine regional attitudes, but Zogby noted that about one-third of Arab-Americans reside in five battleground states. The largest bloc, making up 5% of the state's population, live in Michigan, one of the most important swing states. The other states are Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.
There are an estimated 3.5 million Arab-Americans, making up about 1% of the population of the U.S. Almost two-thirds trace their ancestry to countries of the eastern Mediterranean Sea; Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Jordan. Roughly 70% are Christians and 20% Muslims; the poll respondents were identified as 63% Christian, 24% Muslim and 13% other/none.
The Middle East Blog - TIME
