Three Election Prediction Models Based on Economics Show Trump getting Easy Win in 2020

[PoliticalChic]

Moody's Analytics election model predicts Clinton win

October 25, 2016...NYTimes gave Hillary 93% chance of winning the election.
2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President?


Seems they left this off.....
Disclaimer “past performance is no guarantee of future results”



Republicans are strongly focused on winning the 2020 election.
Democrats are strongly focused on winning the 2016 election.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

• President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
• “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
• Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
• The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.

Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.​

So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.

I think under any kind of normal circumstances, this prediction would likely be correct!

BUT, this just ain't what anyone, could possibly call normal!

Trump just isn't normal, any which way you look at it!!!

So, I'm not certain anyone can predict how things will turn out using past results based on the statistics of just the economy.,.. we are living under extreme chaos, and very stressful, and hateful conditions, fueled by a president, and an internet social network at our fingertips that thrives and makes all of its money, by how it can keep us mad at each other, and mad at everything!

(if everything were peachy keen, with peace on Earth what would draw us to the net (and all those ads), every second we can spare?)

Plus, how many of those previous presidents that were reelected the second time around on a good economy, did not win the popular vote, the first time around???

this 2020 election, if Trump is still around

is totally unpredictable,imho!!!

"this 2020 election, if Trump is still around

is totally unpredictable,imho!!!"


And this world if Trump is not around,and your Democrats win...


1. America would fall back to this:
“Team Obama: Sorry, America, the ‘new normal’ may be here to stay

The good times may be over for good. In a speech to the Economic Club of New York yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said the US GDP growth rate, adjusted for inflation, is now projected to run a little above 2% a year.”
Team Obama: Sorry, America, the 'new normal' may be here to stay - AEI


2. The hard working American taxpayer would pay for illegal alien's healthcare

3. There'd be no penalty for sneaking over the border.....no sovereignty.

4. The world's worst state sponsor of terrorism would have nuclear weapons.

5. Infanticide, post-birth abortion, would be legalized

6. Taxes would be increased and tax cuts reversed

7. Sharia would become de rigueur

8. Free speech would be outlawed as 'hate speech.

9. Jewish persons would have to find shelter elsewhere

10. We could look forward to the end of private health insurance, reparations for slavery and drug dealers, financial security for those who ‘don’t care to work,’ abortion rights for 'transwomen (men), and packing the Supreme Court.

11. The abolition of prisons so that convicted criminals would be free to prey on innocent citizens.

Oh....and this....

12. Abortion rights for men."AOC Wants to Abolish Prisons

...saying that lawmakers needed to explore the mass release of America's prison population.





What sort of imbecile would vote for this???

Raise your paw.