Three Election Prediction Models Based on Economics Show Trump getting Easy Win in 2020

JimBowie1958

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Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

  • President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
  • “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
  • Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
  • The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.​

So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.

 

Dekster

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He will probably win if Hillary or Bloomberg don't get in, but I doubt it is a blow out.
 

Rambunctious

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The dems have nothing of value left to offer to the people...everything they propose is a pipe dream...and what they endorse is vacuous and empty....every day that goes by they lose more voters and new voters are now being turned away from the southern border....they are on the brink of political extinction...
that's why I'm smiling....
 

SAYIT

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Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.
I've seen 4 including Moody's.

Dems just can't face the truth or the oncoming 2020 Trump Train. Instead they've hitched their wagon to socialism and can't seem to get it off the tracks. BOOM!!!

Rather than use polls - which as we know struggle to measure Trump's support - Moody's and others employ scientific models to predict the future, and every one I've read says Trump in 2020 ... BIGLY. No wonder the Dems are so hot to impeach.

Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.
Earlier scientific modelers came to the same conclusion as Moody's.

3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020
The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.
  • Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."
  • "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."
  • "Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College."
 

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Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

  • President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
  • “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
  • Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
  • The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.​

So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.

 

Voiceover

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The hard truth to the diversified leftest is that the economy could tank and Trump will still win . The Political Correct crowd has lost its shining light with mainstream America to the point that they are hated and now shunned . I've got several gay friends that wish the left would just evaporate for all the damage theyve done with their over compensation . Now the worm will turn and the tolerance will cease . The bathrooms at Target will return to the two genders and common sense will return to this country . They forced a hard right turn in this country and it's the only way to correct the madness.
 

PoliticalChic

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Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

  • President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
  • “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
  • Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
  • The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.​

So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.



The 'impeachment strategy' is their admission that they can't beat him.
 

Care4all

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The dems have nothing of value left to offer to the people...everything they propose is a pipe dream...and what they endorse is vacuous and empty....every day that goes by they lose more voters and new voters are now being turned away from the southern border....they are on the brink of political extinction...
that's why I'm smiling....
what have Republicans proposed as their agenda???
 

busybee01

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Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

  • President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
  • “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
  • Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
  • The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.​

So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.



The trouble with these models is they only take into account the economy. First all we are facing at least a slowdown while manufacturing is in a recession already. We see fewer jobs being created each month and GDP falling.

Also there are a number of non-economic issues that Trump is on the wrong side of. Voters oppose Trump on nearly every issue. Even Texas Republicans admit Trump will have to fight for Texas. Polls also show in states like Pennsylvania, Trump trails badly even though people say the economy is good.

The key voters will be suburban voters. especially suburban women who have been moving increasingly to Democrats. In 2018, Democrats won suburban based seats in red states like Oklahoma and SC.
 

busybee01

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The dems have nothing of value left to offer to the people...everything they propose is a pipe dream...and what they endorse is vacuous and empty....every day that goes by they lose more voters and new voters are now being turned away from the southern border....they are on the brink of political extinction...
that's why I'm smiling....
It is Republicans who are on the brink of political extinction. If Texas goes then it is over for the Republican Party. Voters oppose Trump on border security and immigration issues.
 

Thinker101

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The dems have nothing of value left to offer to the people...everything they propose is a pipe dream...and what they endorse is vacuous and empty....every day that goes by they lose more voters and new voters are now being turned away from the southern border....they are on the brink of political extinction...
that's why I'm smiling....
It is Republicans who are on the brink of political extinction. If Texas goes then it is over for the Republican Party. Voters oppose Trump on border security and immigration issues.
Yep, who doesn't want to watch Beto change a tire, go to the dentist, get a hair cut, get a flu shot....he da man.
 

BasicHumanUnit

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C'mon...seriously.....who would vote Democrat ?

1). The Chinese - (Steal more American trades secrets, win huge unfair trade incentives that damage America)
2). Russia - (More of America's Plutonium reserves, More Eastern European land grabbing)
3). Socialists - (Wannabe Communists)
4). The Seriously Low IQ crowd
5). Outright brainwashed imbeciles who honestly don't know better but vote democrat because Taylor Swift told them to.
 

BasicHumanUnit

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It is Republicans who are on the brink of political extinction. If Texas goes then it is over for the Republican Party. Voters oppose Trump on border security and immigration issues.
You "almost" got it.....

It is EVERYONE who is on the brink of political extinction as Globalists try to turn the Western world into a Socialist / Communist shit hole where "Misery For All" is the mantra
 

Care4all

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Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

  • President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
  • “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
  • Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
  • The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.​

So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.

I think under any kind of normal circumstances, this prediction would likely be correct!

BUT, this just ain't what anyone, could possibly call normal! :eek:

Trump just isn't normal, any which way you look at it!!! :D

So, I'm not certain anyone can predict how things will turn out using past results based on the statistics of just the economy.,.. we are living under extreme chaos, and very stressful, and hateful conditions, fueled by a president, and an internet social network at our fingertips that thrives and makes all of its money, by how it can keep us mad at each other, and mad at everything!

(if everything were peachy keen, with peace on Earth :) what would draw us to the net (and all those ads), every second we can spare?)

Plus, how many of those previous presidents that were reelected the second time around on a good economy, did not win the popular vote, the first time around???

this 2020 election, if Trump is still around :p

is totally unpredictable,imho!!!
 
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JimBowie1958

JimBowie1958

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I think under any kind of normal circumstances, this prediction would likely be correct!

BUT, this just ain't what anyone, could possibly call normal! :eek:

Trump just isn't normal, any which way you look at it!!! :D
True, Trump is not normal.

He is Super Powered Exceptional. lol

The Dems could not beat him when all the odds were against him.

How are you going to beat him when the odds are in his favor?

Maybe if everyone in America had the same TDS that Dems have you might be right, but they dont.

But the only poll/model that counts is the one in November of next year, and you guys have a chance, so pick you best cand....never mind.

You will lose, lol.
 

JoeB131

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President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
Except the economy is already floundering.

“If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
Except they won't. Trump has made no effort to expand his base beyond the basket of deporables who voted for him.
 

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