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If it were propaganda, I'd probably be saying something like "Law & Order!" and "MAGA!"/——/ And folks, this is the morning update direct from LiberalPropagandaville.I tend to think same...but it's due to jade and some other things that I'm not allowing the optimism to seep through. The buzz out there is that most folks are sick and fuckin tired of not just Trump himself...but hearing about Trump...seeing Trump, how polarized he makes everything...etc, it really seems like a fed-up with Trump electorate this year and I hope for a humongoid landslide...but I'm kind of thinking it's going to be close, and close isn't good based on Bubble-butt's rhetoric on the process./——/ Why? Because it doesn’t fit your narrative?Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
My narrative is that this is a close election. It fits my narrative just right.
Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
Yeah I think it’s going to be close too. And I should clarify. Nearly all Un-registered but self reporting likely voters usually don’t wind up voting.I don’t even like polls from “likely voters”. They should only be from registered voters. Nearly every self reporting “likely voter” winds up not voting. It’s an odd thing humans do when they lie to complete strangers asking for honest opinions to improve their image to that stranger. Whether it be scientific studies, doctors, pollsters, nobody wants to look bad even if it hurts their health or messes with data. This is also why what’s being called the “shy vote” is going to make an even bigger impact this year.Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
The topline data (who ya voting for, trump or Biden) isn’t all that useful. Pay attention to cross tabs and methodology. Cross tabs will show you the demographic break down. A lot of these polls are under sampling republican voters for whatever reason. May not be on purpose, may just be pubs don’t answer, idk. Either way many polls are clearly building in 5-10 pt advantages for Biden by under sampling Republicans. That’s just what happens when you poll 60% dems and 40% pubs in a county that went for trump in 2016. That poll is basically garbage. The fact that many of the pollsters aren’t coming out and announcing “hey we only managed to sample 40% pubs” like they should, tells me it may be on purpose in some of these cases.
Another thing I’m noticing is in methodology. I believe it was the recent Ramuessen that stated only some 70% of republicans say they planning on voting trump vs 94% of dems voting Biden. Even those on the left will admit there’s no way that number is true for republicans. So you wonder what type of questions they’re asking voters. Some of the questions I’ve seen get asked like this. “Do you agree with Biden’s message that America should be more united.” Dogshit loaded question. What if, like in the case of basically all right leaning voters, you don’t view Biden’s message as unifying at all. You’re probably all for a more unifying message, but don’t believe Biden is going to deliver. Better way to ask would be along the lines of “Do you believe Biden’s message is unifying.” Or the inverse that I’ve also seen is “Do you agree with trumps divisive rhetoric” is also a dogshit loaded question. No one wants to be viewed as being or agreeing with “divisive rhetoric”. If you want accurate data, you simply CANNOT frame questions these ways. There’s far to much of this type of this nonsense going on to give these polls much weight.
" Nearly every self reporting “likely voter” winds up not voting. "
Did a poll tell you that? LOL just kidding. I think the election is going to be incredibly close. There is electoral math that winds up 269-269. That would be a hoot!
Here’s the other problem. Polls are almost exactly where they were in 2016. The problems those polls had are not being corrected. This is why cross tabs are important. This is why reading the methodology is important. I can’t tell you why they’re under sampling Republicans. I can tell you why they’re crafting loaded questions. Same reason the social sciences aren’t even science anymore. The proper Methodology that is required for accurate polling and accurate social sciences has gone out the window. It’s inexcusable.I don’t even like polls from “likely voters”. They should only be from registered voters. Nearly every self reporting “likely voter” winds up not voting. It’s an odd thing humans do when they lie to complete strangers asking for honest opinions to improve their image to that stranger. Whether it be scientific studies, doctors, pollsters, nobody wants to look bad even if it hurts their health or messes with data. This is also why what’s being called the “shy vote” is going to make an even bigger impact this year.Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
The topline data (who ya voting for, trump or Biden) isn’t all that useful. Pay attention to cross tabs and methodology. Cross tabs will show you the demographic break down. A lot of these polls are under sampling republican voters for whatever reason. May not be on purpose, may just be pubs don’t answer, idk. Either way many polls are clearly building in 5-10 pt advantages for Biden by under sampling Republicans. That’s just what happens when you poll 60% dems and 40% pubs in a county that went for trump in 2016. That poll is basically garbage. The fact that many of the pollsters aren’t coming out and announcing “hey we only managed to sample 40% pubs” like they should, tells me it may be on purpose in some of these cases.
Another thing I’m noticing is in methodology. I believe it was the recent Ramuessen that stated only some 70% of republicans say they planning on voting trump vs 94% of dems voting Biden. Even those on the left will admit there’s no way that number is true for republicans. So you wonder what type of questions they’re asking voters. Some of the questions I’ve seen get asked like this. “Do you agree with Biden’s message that America should be more united.” Dogshit loaded question. What if, like in the case of basically all right leaning voters, you don’t view Biden’s message as unifying at all. You’re probably all for a more unifying message, but don’t believe Biden is going to deliver. Better way to ask would be along the lines of “Do you believe Biden’s message is unifying.” Or the inverse that I’ve also seen is “Do you agree with trumps divisive rhetoric” is also a dogshit loaded question. No one wants to be viewed as being or agreeing with “divisive rhetoric”. If you want accurate data, you simply CANNOT frame questions these ways. There’s far to much of this type of this nonsense going on to give these polls much weight.
Here is the problem. The IBD/TIPP poll gives Biden a 11 point lead. It is one of the better pollsters. IBD is a Trump friendly publication. Also you had no problems with Rasmussen when their results were what you wanted to hear.
That’s the topline data. Not all that useful. A. Not indicative of battleground states. We don’t have a system where you have to win 1 popular vote, but instead have to win enough of the 50 different popular votes happening simultaneously. Yes Biden will probably “win” the popular vote. But that’s coming out of the heavily populated left leaning coastal states. I don’t see Biden winning more than + 4 million in the popular vote. Interestingly enough those are also the same states, NY and CA, that people are leaving in droves at a time where Americans are more stationary than ever. The 2024 electoral map is going to be interesting.Biden is going to win huge. Won't even be close. He has like a 12 point lead and climbing.Historically, there really hasn’t been a race with such a sizeable lead in battleground states.Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
It’s not just, “some of the polls were wrong in some states.” It’s they were so wrong that Hillary started out the day with an 80% chance of winning. Theres plenty of evidence to suggest enthusiasm for trump from the GOP. The libertarian party is basically nonexistent in this election. They’re voting trump, whether they’re splitting the baby with their hardline views, or in my case the policy of trump is actually impressed them. Republicans are scared of the dems. Anecdotally I personally know 3 previously non-political people, non trump fans in 2016 who have turned hard trump in the wake of the lockdown and riots. Anecdotal yes, I don’t give much weight to anecdotal evidence. But it’s a bizarre phenomenon of people who previously “hated” politics that are now sending me political news articles, and even start dabbling in Qanon. My only explanation as to this change is that politics is drastically effecting them enough so now they’re paying attention. They see lockdowns then see the media and dems encourage protesting that often turns into fires of peace, and see right through the BS. People don’t like it when someone is trying to dupe them. The riots of peaceful flames, and the justice looting is such a bad lie it’s pushing non-conspiracy theorist into qanon (which I personally think Qanon is a seed of truth in a Forrest of bullshit).There's zero evidence that Trump voters are more enthusiastic to vote now than they were in 2016. There's zero evidence of minorities breaking more for Trump. Thus, basing conclusions based entirely on such wishful thinking is not logical.
We do know that polls did correct the 2016 bias that underpredicted turnout of the uneducated, so "But a few 2016 state polls were wrong, so all polls are wrong!" is not a valid argument.
We do know that polls underpredicted the magnitude of the Democratic win in 2018. So, if anything, the most recent evidence suggests the Democratic vote is what's being underpredicted by polls now.
There's zero evidence that Trump voters are more enthusiastic to vote now than they were in 2016.
It doesn't take a Nostradamus to know that Biden will be spending his twilight years behind bars in an asylum when his multiple extortion trips at the taxpayer's expense are taken to the bar. Commaluh will be repatriated to undisclosed parts when her secret crimes come to light. And when the swamp is drained, President will clean up the oceans for which a new Ocean Ecologist's hall of fame will be built in his honor./——/ Why? Because it doesn’t fit your narrative?Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
My narrative is that this is a close election. It fits my narrative just right.
Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.
If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.
Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.
It doesn't take a Nostradamus to know that Biden will be spending his twilight years behind bars in an asylum when his multiple extortion trips at the taxpayer's expense are taken to the bar. Commaluh will be repatriated to undisclosed parts when her secret crimes come to light. And when the swamp is drained, President will clean up the oceans for which a new Ocean Ecologist's hall of fame will be built in his honor./——/ Why? Because it doesn’t fit your narrative?Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
My narrative is that this is a close election. It fits my narrative just right.
It doesn't take a Nostradamus to know that Biden will be spending his twilight years behind bars in an asylum when his multiple extortion trips at the taxpayer's expense are taken to the bar. Commaluh will be repatriated to undisclosed parts when her secret crimes come to light. And when the swamp is drained, President will clean up the oceans for which a new Ocean Ecologist's hall of fame will be built in his honor./——/ Why? Because it doesn’t fit your narrative?Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
My narrative is that this is a close election. It fits my narrative just right.
Precisely none of that will ever come true.
A perfectly understandable and warranted position given the 2000 and 2016 General Elections.Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.
My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.
If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.
Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.
We do know that polls underpredicted the magnitude of the Democratic win in 2018. So, if anything, the most recent evidence suggests the Democratic vote is what's being underpredicted by polls now.
