This is a close election.

[Billy000]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

Historically, there really hasn’t been a race with such a sizeable lead in battleground states.

Biden is going to win huge. Won't even be close. He has like a 12 point lead and climbing.

Without a doubt he’ll win the popular vote by a healthy margin, but I worry about how slim his electoral victory will be. If it’s close, Trumptard will call it illegitimate and won’t concede. I mean hell he’ll say that regardless, but a landslide will help drown him out.

 

[MarathonMike]

The country is totally divided, so the election could be very close. It may even be contested which would fit right into the chaos of 2020.

 

[candycorn]

Democrats went from massive blue wave Biden landslide, to it's going to be close...

Troll boy...the POTUS election was always going to be close. A wave is when you also pick up the Senate (which I don't think will happen either) and expand your margin in the House (which will happen; 10-15 seats).

So all the polls showing Biden winning everything everywhere are wrong? No 12 point lead?

Only trolls call others trolls...

As you called me a troll...you're proving my point troll boy.

Yes...polls showing Biden with a 12 point lead are wrong.

You're the one who started calling me a troll which is a tell tale sign you are one.

You better tell your fellow democrats about the polls because they all believe them. They are that stupid.

Negative... you started it on a different thread. If you don't like it; don't start it.

 

[candycorn]

The country is totally divided, so the election could be very close. It may even be contested which would fit right into the chaos of 2020.

I keep hearing that. What, specifically, does that mean? Contested...? Law suits?

 

[sakinago]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

I don’t even like polls from “likely voters”. They should only be from registered voters. Nearly every self reporting “likely voter” winds up not voting. It’s an odd thing humans do when they lie to complete strangers asking for honest opinions to improve their image to that stranger. Whether it be scientific studies, doctors, pollsters, nobody wants to look bad even if it hurts their health or messes with data. This is also why what’s being called the “shy vote” is going to make an even bigger impact this year.

The topline data (who ya voting for, trump or Biden) isn’t all that useful. Pay attention to cross tabs and methodology. Cross tabs will show you the demographic break down. A lot of these polls are under sampling republican voters for whatever reason. May not be on purpose, may just be pubs don’t answer, idk. Either way many polls are clearly building in 5-10 pt advantages for Biden by under sampling Republicans. That’s just what happens when you poll 60% dems and 40% pubs in a county that went for trump in 2016. That poll is basically garbage. The fact that many of the pollsters aren’t coming out and announcing “hey we only managed to sample 40% pubs” like they should, tells me it may be on purpose in some of these cases.

Another thing I’m noticing is in methodology. I believe it was the recent Ramuessen that stated only some 70% of republicans say they planning on voting trump vs 94% of dems voting Biden. Even those on the left will admit there’s no way that number is true for republicans. So you wonder what type of questions they’re asking voters. Some of the questions I’ve seen get asked like this. “Do you agree with Biden’s message that America should be more united.” Dogshit loaded question. What if, like in the case of basically all right leaning voters, you don’t view Biden’s message as unifying at all. You’re probably all for a more unifying message, but don’t believe Biden is going to deliver. Better way to ask would be along the lines of “Do you believe Biden’s message is unifying.” Or the inverse that I’ve also seen is “Do you agree with trumps divisive rhetoric” is also a dogshit loaded question. No one wants to be viewed as being or agreeing with “divisive rhetoric”. If you want accurate data, you simply CANNOT frame questions these ways. There’s far to much of this type of this nonsense going on to give these polls much weight.

 

[White 6]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

Historically, there really hasn’t been a race with such a sizeable lead in battleground states.

Biden is going to win huge. Won't even be close. He has like a 12 point lead and climbing.

Without a doubt he’ll win the popular vote by a healthy margin, but I worry about how slim his electoral victory will be. If it’s close, Trumptard will call it illegitimate and won’t concede. I mean hell he’ll say that regardless, but a landslide will help drown him out.

It will not be a rout, but I think it will be enough popular vote and electoral vote to be clear enough, by a week after election day or earlier.

 

[Redcurtain]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

Historically, there really hasn’t been a race with such a sizeable lead in battleground states.

Over sampled

 

[Mike473]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

No one is inspired by Biden - Harris. In 47 years, Joe Biden has yet to generate any enthusiasm outside of Delaware. Those not voting for Trump are voting against Trump, not for Biden. I have never seen less enthusiasm for a Presidential ticket. They expect Biden - Harris to turn out more people to vote than Obama when there is no sign on the ground level that anyone cares about Biden? The only excitement about Biden is seen on TV.

 

[candycorn]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

I don’t even like polls from “likely voters”. They should only be from registered voters. Nearly every self reporting “likely voter” winds up not voting. It’s an odd thing humans do when they lie to complete strangers asking for honest opinions to improve their image to that stranger. Whether it be scientific studies, doctors, pollsters, nobody wants to look bad even if it hurts their health or messes with data. This is also why what’s being called the “shy vote” is going to make an even bigger impact this year.

The topline data (who ya voting for, trump or Biden) isn’t all that useful. Pay attention to cross tabs and methodology. Cross tabs will show you the demographic break down. A lot of these polls are under sampling republican voters for whatever reason. May not be on purpose, may just be pubs don’t answer, idk. Either way many polls are clearly building in 5-10 pt advantages for Biden by under sampling Republicans. That’s just what happens when you poll 60% dems and 40% pubs in a county that went for trump in 2016. That poll is basically garbage. The fact that many of the pollsters aren’t coming out and announcing “hey we only managed to sample 40% pubs” like they should, tells me it may be on purpose in some of these cases.

Another thing I’m noticing is in methodology. I believe it was the recent Ramuessen that stated only some 70% of republicans say they planning on voting trump vs 94% of dems voting Biden. Even those on the left will admit there’s no way that number is true for republicans. So you wonder what type of questions they’re asking voters. Some of the questions I’ve seen get asked like this. “Do you agree with Biden’s message that America should be more united.” Dogshit loaded question. What if, like in the case of basically all right leaning voters, you don’t view Biden’s message as unifying at all. You’re probably all for a more unifying message, but don’t believe Biden is going to deliver. Better way to ask would be along the lines of “Do you believe Biden’s message is unifying.” Or the inverse that I’ve also seen is “Do you agree with trumps divisive rhetoric” is also a dogshit loaded question. No one wants to be viewed as being or agreeing with “divisive rhetoric”. If you want accurate data, you simply CANNOT frame questions these ways. There’s far to much of this type of this nonsense going on to give these polls much weight.

" Nearly every self reporting “likely voter” winds up not voting. "

Did a poll tell you that? LOL just kidding. I think the election is going to be incredibly close. There is electoral math that winds up 269-269. That would be a hoot!

 

[candycorn]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

Historically, there really hasn’t been a race with such a sizeable lead in battleground states.

Biden is going to win huge. Won't even be close. He has like a 12 point lead and climbing.

Without a doubt he’ll win the popular vote by a healthy margin, but I worry about how slim his electoral victory will be. If it’s close, Trumptard will call it illegitimate and won’t concede. I mean hell he’ll say that regardless, but a landslide will help drown him out.

It will not be a rout, but I think it will be enough popular vote and electoral vote to be clear enough, by a week after election day or earlier.

Hope so.

 

[basquebromance]

It’s Republicans’ own fault this is happening. It’s their unwillingness to govern

They’ve always been the party that wants to put together electoral coalitions to address policy issues. And under the party of Trump, you’re just vilifying people, not coming up with ideas

Like John McCain would say, 'It's always darkest before it's totally black.'

 

[WelfareQueen]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.

My math makes perfect sense. The Dim formula for winning elections has been the same for 50 years. Dims must get 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to win. Dims hit those numbers they win.

Hillary got 90% of the black vote but black men did not like her and many stayed home. Also she only got 37% of the white vote. Hence, she lost.

I think Trump could get 15-16% of the black vote. If he does Biden likely loses. White turnout will be big in the upper Midwest. Strong white turnout and Trump wins. If Biden hits the 40% white vote and 90% black vote he wins.

Candy, I don't what to brag, but I know my shit. The polls mean nothing. It is all down to who actually shows up to vote. I know Trump voters are highly motivated. I am less certain about Dim voters. But both can win, no question, and right now I honestly do not know who it will be.

 

[candycorn]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.

My math makes perfect sense. The Dim formula for winning elections has been the same for 50 years. Dims must get 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to win. Dims hit those numbers they win.

Hillary got 90% of the black vote but black men did not like her and many stayed home. Also she only got 37% of the white vote. Hence, she lost.

I think Trump could get 15-16% of the black vote. If he does Biden likely loses. White turnout will be big in the upper Midwest. Strong white turnout and Trump wins. If Biden hits the 40% white vote and 90% black vote he wins.

Candy, I don't what to brag, but I know my shit. The polls mean nothing. It is all down to who actually shows up to vote. I know Trump voters are highly motivated. I am less certain about Dim voters. But both can win, no question, and right now I honestly do not know who it will be.

" If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win. "
If Trump wins 15% of the black vote, the most the Dems can win is 85. You have him winning the election with 15%
Then you say that if the Dems can get 90% , they will win. There is a 5% difference in your logic.

 

[candycorn]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.

My math makes perfect sense. The Dim formula for winning elections has been the same for 50 years. Dims must get 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to win. Dims hit those numbers they win.

Hillary got 90% of the black vote but black men did not like her and many stayed home. Also she only got 37% of the white vote. Hence, she lost.

I think Trump could get 15-16% of the black vote. If he does Biden likely loses. White turnout will be big in the upper Midwest. Strong white turnout and Trump wins. If Biden hits the 40% white vote and 90% black vote he wins.

Candy, I don't what to brag, but I know my shit. The polls mean nothing. It is all down to who actually shows up to vote. I know Trump voters are highly motivated. I am less certain about Dim voters. But both can win, no question, and right now I honestly do not know who it will be.

Hillary got 3M more votes than the blob. Just not in the correct states. Macro numbers you're bringing up mean nothing. If a gazillion more black people in California voted for her, she still would have lost.

 

[busybee01]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

You also have to take into account 2018. Whitmer won in Michigan by just under 10 points. Democrats won in Pennsylvania by about 10 points. In Wisconsin, Democrats narrowly won the Governor's race but swept statewide offices. Also Trump is the incumbent. The longer a voter is undecided the more likely they are to not vote or vote against the incumbent.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.

My math makes perfect sense. The Dim formula for winning elections has been the same for 50 years. Dims must get 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to win. Dims hit those numbers they win.

Hillary got 90% of the black vote but black men did not like her and many stayed home. Also she only got 37% of the white vote. Hence, she lost.

I think Trump could get 15-16% of the black vote. If he does Biden likely loses. White turnout will be big in the upper Midwest. Strong white turnout and Trump wins. If Biden hits the 40% white vote and 90% black vote he wins.

Candy, I don't what to brag, but I know my shit. The polls mean nothing. It is all down to who actually shows up to vote. I know Trump voters are highly motivated. I am less certain about Dim voters. But both can win, no question, and right now I honestly do not know who it will be.

" If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win. "
If Trump wins 15% of the black vote, the most the Dems can win is 85. You have him winning the election with 15%
Then you say that if the Dems can get 90% , they will win. There is a 5% difference in your logic.

Math is not your friend. Nor is logic. We'll all see what happens in a few week. Bottom line. It will be close imho.

 

[busybee01]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

It will not be close. Biden will win by 8-10 points. Trump's mishandling of the coronavirus will create the intensity. The wild card will be how successful Republicans are in suppressing the vote.

 

[busybee01]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

It’s not even going to be close.. Democrats are extremely over sampled in every poll these polls are only meant to be morphine for your pain

They are not. Trump is facing massive defections from 2016 with suburban voters.

 

[busybee01]

Democrats went from massive blue wave Biden landslide, to it's going to be close...

Troll boy...the POTUS election was always going to be close. A wave is when you also pick up the Senate (which I don't think will happen either) and expand your margin in the House (which will happen; 10-15 seats).

Democrats could wipe out Republicans in the Senate. When Lindsay Graham is in trouble in SC, Republicans are in trouble.

 

[busybee01]

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

The black vote is the most inconsequential voting blocks, in reality it only makes up a small percentage of the electorate. If President Trump gets 3% more of the non-college whites, which is the biggest electorate, he wins easily. The white vote in general is by far the most important. 1% point swing is way more significant than 5% of blacks or even Latinos. Not that it wouldn’t be helpful to get more black and Latino vote.

Suburban women are the key. In Michigan, 60% voted Democrat which offset a better than expected showing among blacks.