There's Always Money for War

[boedicca]

Here's how tax cuts benefit all Americans via spurring Economic Growth:

Unemployment is @ 4.5%.

Homeownership is at record high rates.

50% of Americans own stock.

There's also the bit about how Poor Americans Are FAT - in most countries, the poor are starving.

 

[GeeWhiz]

Here's how tax cuts benefit all Americans via spurring Economic Growth:

Unemployment is @ 4.5%.

Homeownership is at record high rates.

50% of Americans own stock.

There's also the bit about how Poor Americans Are FAT - in most countries, the poor are starving.

Your unemployment record doesn't take into account those that are not counted. Once you are not receiving unemployment compensation you are no longer counted. The 4.5 % is false.

The Housing bubble popped. It is projected that up to a million homes will be forclosed in the coming years, 100,000 Americans will loose their homes for sure.

Stocks is nothing more than a big Casino. You win some you loose some nothing to brag about there. Let's not forget 50 people pooled their money together to buy 1 share. This hardly puts them in the same league as the wealthiest top ten percent of our nation.

 

[MtnBiker]

Your unemployment record doesn't take into account those that are not counted. Once you are not receiving unemployment compensation you are no longer counted. The 4.5 % is false.

If the unemployed are counted by means of unemployement benifits how are the employed counted?

 

[boedicca]

Your unemployment record doesn't take into account those that are not counted. Once you are not receiving unemployment compensation you are no longer counted. The 4.5 % is false.

Actually, it's not, if you understand the statistical method used. It does not involve unemployment claims - it is based upon a detailed household survey. This method is more valid because it captures self-employeed and contract workers who are not eligible for unemployment.

The Housing bubble popped. It is projected that up to a million homes will be forclosed in the coming years, 100,000 Americans will loose their homes for sure.

The biggest impact of the bubble pop (which is regional - not all areas are affected) involves spec houses. Yes, some people will lose their homes - but many more who never would have been owners in the past will keep them. The speculators who gorged on condos in hot markets will lose some capital, rent them out at cheap rates to cover as much carrying costs as possible, thus providing a nice source of rental housing for their markets.

Stocks is nothing more than a big Casino. You win some you loose some nothing to brag about there. Let's not forget 50 people pooled their money together to buy 1 share. This hardly puts them in the same league as the wealthiest top ten percent of our nation.

Stocks are only a big Casino if one doesn't bother to research one's investments. Over time, even after the impact of severe corrections/crashes, market returns are far superior to fixed interest rate or (horror of horrors) Social Security returns. Many workers own stock in their 401Ks and IRAs, which is nowhere near having to pool money to buy one share.

 

[MtnBiker]

It is projected that up to a million homes will be forclosed in the coming years, 100,000 Americans will loose their homes for sure.

Is there supporting evidence for such a claim?

 

[GeeWhiz]

If the unemployed are counted by means of unemployement benifits how are the employed counted?

Several ways; direct and indirect. For tax purposes employers sends in the social security number of their employees to the government agencies that requires it.

For tax purposes employers takes out taxes from their employees paycheck and sends it to the IRS. This is how cross references are made. When an employee files his or her taxes it must match the records that the employer or banks or other financial institutions sends to the IRS.

This is how goverments both state and local projects a budget. They estimate the taxes they will take in based on a guess as to how many people will remain employed in the next year. It is predictable because employees wages are fixed. Unlike a business one cannot know for sure if the busines will make money or loose money.

At the end of the year one can get a good estimate as to how many are employed in the past year based on tax returns.

 

[MtnBiker]

So, are such numbers compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics credible?

 

[GeeWhiz]

Is there supporting evidence for such a claim?

http://www.responsiblelending.org/issues/mortgage/reports/page.jsp?itemID=31214551

A new CRL study reveals that millions of American households will lose their homes and as much as $164 billion due to foreclosures in the subprime mortgage market.

The “Losing Ground” study is the first comprehensive, nationwide review of millions of subprime mortgages originated from 1998 through the third quarter of 2006. CRL finds that despite low interest rates and a favorable economic environment during the past several years, the subprime market has experienced high foreclosure rates, and we project that one out of five (19.4%) subprime loans issued during 2005-2006 will fail.

The report discusses a number of factors that drive subprime foreclosures—these include adjustable rate mortgages with steep built-in rate and payment increases, prepayment penalties, limited income documentation, and no escrow for taxes and insurance. We also determine that these features cause a higher risk of default regardless of the borrower’s credit score.

Our study also finds that recent high appreciation in many areas has masked problems in the subprime market, and that the cooling housing market will cause failure rates to rise sharply in many major markets. California, Arizona, Nevada, and greater Washington DC will be especially hard hit. Also in this report, we project lifetime foreclosure rates for 2006-originated subprime loans in each MSA in the United States.

 

[boedicca]

Riddle me this:

Subprime loans generally involve little or no down payments - so where does the $164B that is supposed to be lost come from?

 

[GeeWhiz]

So, are such numbers compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics credible?

It does not take into account those that are not on unemployment compensation.

If you have 100 people that are on unemployment compenstation and 50 of them exhausted their compensation, this will make it look as if unemployment dropped because you now only have 50 people on unemployment compensation. The real picture should still be 100 people are unemployed; but it is not counted that way. It's counted based on how many are on unemployment compensation.

 

[boedicca]

It does not take into account those that are not on unemployment compensation.

If you have 100 people that are on unemployment compenstation and 50 of them exhausted their compensation, this will make it look as if unemployment dropped because you now only have 50 people on unemployment compensation. The real picture should still be 100 people are unemployed; but it is not counted that way. It's counted based on how many are on unemployment compensation.

Unemployment stats are not based upon Unemployment payments - they are based upon a household survey.

 

[GeeWhiz]

Riddle me this:

Subprime loans generally involve little or no down payments - so where does the $164B that is supposed to be lost come from?

From the money that has already been paid in. You forget that many of these homeowners have been making payments and and have been making payments for quite some time know; couple that with the new bankruptcy law.

The new bankruptcy law makes it harder for a person to get rid of the wolfs at the door. As long as you have a job even if you loose your home you may still be hit with having to pay some of your debt. You may become an indentured servant unable to get the debt off your back.

 

[Annie]

I guess no one wishes to address the expressed powers of the federal government?

I'm off to watch Jack deal with.

 

[MtnBiker]

Technical Note


This news release presents statistics from two major surveys, the Current
Population Survey (household survey) and the Current Employment Statistics
survey (establishment survey). The household survey provides the informa-
tion on the labor force, employment, and unemployment that appears in the
A tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample survey of about 60,000 house-
holds conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

 

[GeeWhiz]

Unemployment stats are not based upon Unemployment payments - they are based upon a household survey.

Where do these household survey's come from?

The only one that I know of is the census bureau which comes around every once every ten years. In the meanwhile news and goverment uses the unemployment record because that is the most recent source they have.

 

[boedicca]

U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://stats.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

Where do the statistics come from?

Early each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor announces the total number of employed and unemployed persons in the United States for the previous month, along with many characteristics of such persons. These figures, particularly the unemployment rate--which tells you the percent of the labor force that is unemployed--receive wide coverage in the press, on radio, and on television.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

Other people think that the Government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted--just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long. Besides, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker come to their homes every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940 when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. As explained later, the CPS estimates, beginning in 1994, reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey.

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. The sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, first, the 3,141 counties and county-equivalent cities in the country are grouped into 1,973 geographic areas. The Bureau of the Census then designs and selects a sample consisting of 754 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State.

Each of the 754 areas in the sample is subdivided into enumeration districts of about 300 households. The enumeration districts, in turn, are divided into smaller clusters of about four dwelling units each, through the use of address lists, detailed maps, and other sources. Then, the clusters to be surveyed are chosen statistically, and the households in these clusters are interviewed.

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.

Each month, 1,500 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the week that includes the 12th of the month (the reference week). This information, relating to all household members 16 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, D.C. In addition, a portion of the sample is interviewed by phone through two central data collection facilities. (Prior to 1994, the interviews were conducted using a paper questionnaire which had to be mailed in by the interviewers each month.)

Each person is classified according to the activities he/she engaged in during the reference week. Then, the total numbers are "weighted," or adjusted to independent population estimates (based on updated decennial census results). The weighting takes into account the age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and State of residence of the population, so that these characteristics are reflected in the proper proportions in the final estimates.

A sample is not a total count and the survey may not produce the same results that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population. But the chances are 90 out of 100 that the monthly estimate of unemployment from the sample is within about 230,000 of the figure obtainable from a total census. Since monthly unemployment totals have ranged between about 5 and 8 million in recent years, the possible error resulting from sampling is not large enough to distort the total unemployment picture.

Because these interviews are the basic source of data for total unemployment, information must be factual and correct. Respondents are never asked specifically if they are unemployed, nor are they given an opportunity to decide their own labor force status. Unless they already know how the Government defines unemployment, many of them may not be sure of their actual classification when the interview is completed.

Similarly, interviewers do not decide the respondents' labor force classification. They simply ask the questions in the prescribed way and record the answers. Individuals are then classified as employed or unemployed by the computer based on the information collected and the definitions programmed into the computer.

All interviews must follow the same procedures to obtain comparable results. Because of the crucial role interviewers have in the household survey, a great amount of time and effort is spent maintaining the quality of their work. Interviewers are given intensive training, including classroom lectures, discussion, practice, observation, home-study materials, and on-the-job training. At least once a year, they convene for day-long training and review sessions, and, also at least once a year, they are accompanied by a supervisor during a full day of interviewing to determine how well they carry out their assignments.

A selected number of households are reinterviewed each month to determine whether the information obtained in the first interview was correct. The information gained from these reinterviews is used to improve the entire training program.

 

[MtnBiker]

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: FEBRUARY 2007 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

[GeeWhiz]

MtnBiker and boedicca,

The BLS admits their stats is based on a sample and not a total count. The screw you effect is not taken into account and trust me that is to technical to get into here.

The other factor which is not considered is the nature of the employment. Millions lost their jobs during the first term of the Bush watch.

What is not take into account is a person whom was making $14 dollars an hour looses his job and is now making $6 dollars an hour when he returned to working. He is counted as being employed either way.

The low unemployment is misleading in that millions of Americans that have lost their jobs did not return to work at the same pay they had before they lost their job. Americans under Bush'es watch lost big time. Look at the big picture.

The facts the two of you are denying is the low unemployment says nothing of the major shrinkage in the middle class and the major increase of the deep poverty.

What I'm trying to say here are two factors when combined shows the people of this country got screwed. First factor the unemployed returned to inadequate jobs second the sample method the BLS uses will not account for a huge number out there in the United States that are not working. Combined together America under Bush'es watch is doing terrible.

Another factor is the increase in the uninsured. This is because those whom returned to work in a lower than adequate pay are unable to afford insurance.

These stats are real: the increase in low paying jobs, the decrease in high paying jobs, the increase in people out of work, the increase in people without insurance.


I hope that the two of you are surely jesting if you're trying to give others the impression that under Bush'es watch the average American has been doing swimmingly.

 

[red states rule]

The economy is growing because of the tax cuts

Real Wages Rose 2.2 Percent Over The Past 12 Months Ending In January. This is substantially faster than the average rate of the late 1990s economy, and it means an extra $1,279 in the past year for the typical family with two wage earners.

Real After-Tax Income Per Person Has Risen By 10 Percent – More Than $2,900 – Since President Bush Took Office.

The Economy Has Now Experienced Over Five Years Of Uninterrupted Growth, Averaging 3.0 Percent A Year Since 2001.

The Dow Is Up Over 40 Percent Since The President's Tax Relief Took Effect. The NASDAQ is up more than 55 percent over the same period.

Most economic numbers are equal to or better then Bill Clinton's. So was Clinton's economy bad?

Remember, the corporate cooking of the books occured under Bill

 

[red states rule]

Where do these household survey's come from?

The only one that I know of is the census bureau which comes around every once every ten years. In the meanwhile news and goverment uses the unemployment record because that is the most recent source they have.

Libs are usually uninformed


Two employment surveys

The payroll survey estimates the nation's employment based on responses from a sample of about 400,000 business establishments, which account for about one-third of total nonfarm payroll employment. With a lag of about one year, the BLS revises the payroll estimate to an almost-complete count of U.S. payroll employment; this results in what is known as the "benchmark revision."

The household survey, in contrast, estimates the nation's employment based on responses from interviews with approximately 60,000 households; the BLS then inflates the survey data by the most recent estimates of the population. Unlike the payroll survey, the raw household survey data are not revised, but the population estimates used to inflate them are occasionally updated to incorporate new information from censuses and new estimates of immigration.

Beyond these differences, the two employment measures also differ in concept. First, the payroll survey counts the number of jobs, while the household survey counts the number of employed individuals. Therefore, a person with multiple jobs will be counted several times in the payroll survey but only once in the household survey. Second, their scopes are different; while the payroll survey covers only wage and salary workers on nonfarm payrolls, the household survey covers those individuals as well as agricultural workers, the self-employed, workers in private households, unpaid family workers, and workers on unpaid leaves. Finally, payroll employment includes wage and salary workers under the age of 16, while the household survey does not.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2004/el2004-23.html