There is a 39% chance of a Recession occurring this year

Luckyone said:

Will Trump cause a recession in 2025? Here’s what betting markets are predicting​

Polymarket, one the leading predictors, says there is a 37% chance America will slip into a recession in 2025. Kalshi, another leading predictor, says there’s a 42% chance. Both numbers have rise sharply in the past week.

Who or what is Polymarket?

Understanding Polymarket And Prediction Markets​

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to how a thermometer measures current temperature rather than predicting it.

View attachment 1086267

Simply stated, Polymarket is not predicting anything, meaning that they cannot be accused of being biased. What they report is what the thinking is overall at this time, among the populace.

By the way, the Title says 39% chance and the link above says 37%. The reason for that is that the article is from November 24th and the 39% is from the current number given on their website: Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market
Click to expand...
a recession is necessary to break inflation. now, don't let me be accused of defending Trump mind you. This was just the inevitable outcome of his presidency on the heels of one that was pumping way too much cash into the system to use government spending to pad economic numbers.
 
Rambunctious said:
Market is up today the DOW is 500 pts up and climbing...
Click to expand...
Didn't you mention volatility? This is what volatility is like. In addition, a healthy market has low volatility.

I am going to show you something that I just sent to my subscribers about today's action. Read it and learn what it is that computers and algorithms do "automatically" when there is no new fundamental news out. On Friday, the Jobs report comes out and that report is always a fundamentally catalytical report that will give the bulls or the bears new ammunition. Due to what has happened with other reports this week and what is happening due to Trump's actions, it will likely give the bears (not the bulls) ammunition.

I don't know why I am doing this for you as your bias and low amount of knowledge, suggests that you will not give it the attention that you should give to it. Nonetheless, miracles do happen on occasions

DOW3_5.webp
 
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Woodznutz said:
The stock market is an indicator of how the stock market is doing. The economy, not so much.
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You are not a trader/investor, right>

I hate to say this, but you have no idea of what you are saying. Companies prosper and go up in price when the economy is doing well and vice versa. Do some research before you make such a stupid comment
 
Luckyone said:
Didn't you mention volatility? This is what volatility is like. In addition, a healthy market has low volatility.

I am going to show you something that I just sent to my subscribers about today's action. Read it and learn what it is that computers and algorithms do "automatically" when there is no new fundamental news out. On Friday, the Jobs report comes out and that report is always a fundamentally catalytical report that will give the bulls or the bears new ammunition. Due to what has happened with other reports this week and what is happening due to Trump's actions, it will likely give the bears (not the bulls) ammunition.

I don't know why I am doing this for you as your bias and low amount of knowledge, suggests that you will not give it the attention that it has. Nonetheless, miracles do happen on occasions

View attachment 1086363
Click to expand...
The economy is already improving....
 
Luckyone said:

Will Trump cause a recession in 2025? Here’s what betting markets are predicting​

Polymarket, one the leading predictors, says there is a 37% chance America will slip into a recession in 2025. Kalshi, another leading predictor, says there’s a 42% chance. Both numbers have rise sharply in the past week.

Who or what is Polymarket?

Understanding Polymarket And Prediction Markets​

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to how a thermometer measures current temperature rather than predicting it.

View attachment 1086267

Simply stated, Polymarket is not predicting anything, meaning that they cannot be accused of being biased. What they report is what the thinking is overall at this time, among the populace.

By the way, the Title says 39% chance and the link above says 37%. The reason for that is that the article is from November 24th and the 39% is from the current number given on their website: Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market
Click to expand...
I think they are both low. I'd say recession is a near certainty.
 
Rambunctious said:
Why worry?... Trump repaired Obama's economy and he will do it again... Its called Making America Great Again... sit back and watch...
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Hilarious

shitlers! economic metrics were all worse at the end of his first term.

As they will be after his second term from Biden's numbers.
 
otto105 said:
Hilarious

shitlers! economic metrics were all worse at the end of his first term.

As they will be after his second term from Biden's numbers.
Click to expand...
Only when you include covid numbers and you know that to be true so why do you think anyone will fall for it?....
 
Rambunctious said:
Only when you include covid numbers and you know that to be true so why do you think anyone will fall for it?....
Click to expand...
We include all the numbers just like we do when President Obama had to recover from Bush's Great Recession.
 
Rambunctious said:
Did you sigh when we told you Trump would win and not go to jail?....
Click to expand...
Yes, I did sigh because he evaded justice and no one is supposed to be above the law. This means that this (him not going to jail) was an injustice.

Then again, if people like you had not been so blind-to-justice and vote a found-guilty sex offender and a found-guilty felon into office, Trump WOULD BE GOING to jail.

He needed suckers like you to vote him in to keep him out of jail.
 
Luckyone said:
Yes, I did sigh because he evaded justice and no one is supposed to be above the law. This means that this (him not going to jail) was an injustice.

Then again, if people like you had not been so blind-to-justice and vote a found-guilty sex offender and a found-guilty felon into office, Trump WOULD BE GOING to jail.

He needed suckers like you to vote him in to keep him out of jail.
Click to expand...
They like being suckers. They love being sycophants.
 
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