You're assuming a lot on the solidarity of the republicans in the senate. I think they'll back Trump. Think about it, palousey is offering money to improve existing immoral walls. She just showed herself as a major hypocrite.
Also if you actually listened to what Trump said about Cohen, there were no threats.
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It just got McConnell to open the floor up in the Senate. It appears that it's not the rosy picture you are trying to paint. McConnell has hitched his wagon to Trump and has stood steadfast using his power of Senate Majority Leader to prevent anything that Trump doesn't like to enter the Senate Floor. That just changed. The House already knows that there is enough Republican Senators to pass their version and not enough republican senators to pass Trumps version. But until now, that was not allowed on the senate floor. Trump is losing support just by that indication. And it appears that McConnell knows that his wagon is in serious trouble if linked to trump. Trump's approval rating just hut 36%, a new low. McConnell is screwed either way and may be just be trying to figure out a way so he doesn't look like a complete idiot in the history books.
The fact is, neither bill that are supposed to be voted on tomorrow is expected to pass. As long as Trump is negotiating against a NO, you won't see any progress. Trump will likely declare an emergency on the border by Friday, after both bills fail. Just having votes on both bills will provide him cover.
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The House bill will pass in the senate but not by the Veto Proof. Trump gets his chance to veto or not on that one. Just like the system is supposed to work. If he does declare an emergency, The Supreme Court is now involved. And I don't believe that Trump can justify a state of Emergency to Roberts and his bunch. If that is the case, look for some ruling that will force the government to open up without either side being placated.
First the courts have no say in a situation where congress gives the president sole desecration. The only remedy in the law is a majority vote in BOTH houses of congress, and that won't happen. Also neither bill will make it past the cloture vote, so neither will get a floor vote.
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Let's take a look at the numbers
There are 52 Republicans, 47 Democrats (including 2 indies that caucus with the Dems) with one Republican that is absent until his term as Governor is completed. The Governor does not have a vote.
There are a number of automatic Red Lever Pullers in serious trouble for 2020. Here they are.
Cory Gardner (R) Colorado. Let's say he has a chance if he breaks free and actually goes against trump. Trump is a parriah in Colorado these days. The Republican Party isn't but as long as it supports Trump, any Senator from Colorado that is on that bandwagon is going back to farming. Not to say that Gardner can't turn that around. He can. His vote isn't a sure thing for the Big Red Lever (or Orange Lever) these days. If all else fails fails, the dems have an ace in the hole, they could run Hickenlooper against him and Gardner is post toastees.
John Kyle (R) Arizona He was appointed to replace the Death of the Republican Senator. He would like to be (re)elected in 2020. But Arizona just replaced it's other Senator with a Democrat. If he stays on the Orange Lever Pulling Brigade, chances are he's toast.
Susan Collins (R) Maine She is a 4 term Republican Senator that many believe is past her sell date. She may very well win reelection but not if she goes with the Orange Lever pull.
Thom Tillis (R) N.C. Somewhat in Cory Gardners condition. North Carolina is now a swing state. Tillis has seized the Orange Lever with all his might. Hitching his entire career on Trump may be his undoing. Trump won over Clinton by a narrow 3% in 2016.
Joni Ernst (R) Iowa She is the first Female Senator from Iowa. But here is the twist. She won in 2014. But in 2018, Iowa did quite a bit of flipping from Republican to Democrats in their State Government. That means she is in the same boat as Gardner without the name and time recognition. She is probably toast.
Then there are the Republican Senators from the Blue States. This group, alone, gives enough for a simple majority or even a vote of 60 to take it to the floor. If you add in the ones I listed above or even half of them, then it could easily reach the 60 and be approved at the senate level. If the ones I listed above just automatically pull the Orange Lever then their careers are pretty much over. If the Blue State Republicans do the same, so are they. The Republicans have a good chance of increasing the numbers in the Senate in 2020 but this is one very sure way to gut their ranks.
No one can predict the outcome on this one until after the final vote.