You forgot to mention the weather effects on 2020/2021 oil production as one more excuse for Biden's war on energy, and high oil prices.
My simple point is this, if Trump was president instead of Biden we would still have an oil surplus and would not be headed for $200/bbl oil. We wouldn't be having Putin's war in Ukraine either, but that's a different topic.
While I generally agree with your post, you keep ignoring the FACT that US oil production is being kept artificially low by Biden's War on Oil.
Tell me why oil producers are balking at more production at $200/bbl???????????????
IMHO its that they don't trust Biden and his green hoards and they can't waste capital with the Fed raising interest rates and the stock market getting tight.
Bottom line: Biden's war on energy contributes to the $200/bbl price of oil since oil companies can't trust his "green" policies. When a GOP president comes in, maybe that will shake loose more US oil.