The three choices Truman had. Was there really any choice?

[Theowl32]

The real reason the US dropped the bombs on Japan IMO. After the Yalta conference, it is important to know that is when the official COLD WAR began with the USSR. It is important to know WHEN that was. February of 1945. Ok? About 6 months before the Hiroshima bomb.

The USSR (Stalin) was making a power move. Yalta became controversial after Soviet-American wartime cooperation degenerated into the cold war. Stalin broke his promise of free elections in Eastern Europe and installed governments dominated by the Soviet Union. Then American critics charged that Roosevelt, who died two months after the conference, had “sold out” to the Soviets at Yalta.

Stalin was not stopping there. He was also encroaching in the Far East. The valuable trade routes were certainly catching his attention. It is apparent that there were clandestine meetings going on between Japan and the USSR. I am sure Stalin was negotiating for Japan to surrender to him and Japan would be able to save some face with the Japanese people. Making it attractive to the emperor.

This is the interesting timeline.

February 1945 the Yalta Conference where the official COLD WAR began.

August 6th 1945, the US drops bomb on Hiroshima.

August 8th 1945, the USSR declares WAR ON JAPAN after invading Japan after the USSR invades Manchuria.

August 9th 1945, second bomb dropped on Japan.

August 15th 1945, Japan surrenders and ends WWII.

Now, imagine this if you are in Truman's shoes. It is rather obvious the USSR was pushing its weight around and trying to take Japan. Stalin counting on the fact that the US could not stomach another long drawn out war. Not with Japan (that was over) but with the USSR.

Patton had seen this and wanted to go to war with the USSR. He rightfully pointed out that the USSR would be a major problem, and their army was greatly weakened. Many of their war factories were bombed where the US war factories were in perfect working order. The US Armed forces hardware were already in the region and so the logistics were pretty much in place.

Politically, it would have been impossible for Truman to sell that to the American people. Stalin counted on that and he used that as an opportunity to take Japan.

So, what are the choices?

1. Allow Japan to just surrender to Stalin and the USSR takes over the region even though they had NOT fought in that campaign and lost no one. How would that have been sold to the American people?


2. Go to war with the USSR like Patton wanted. The US would most likely have won the war, but we would not have had an ally in the UK who were decimated. It would have cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The USSR Army, while greatly weakened would have been very tough to beat. How would that have been sold to a war weary American public?

3. Drop the bombs to get the USSR to back the hell off. Sell it like it has been sold all of these years. It is true that it would have saved thousands of American lives. Just not with Japan, but with a HOT conflict with the USSR.


Those are the choices. What do you do? It is important to remember that the "axis and allies" of WWII was done after the Yalta Conference. That is precisely when the COLD WAR began. No longer at the time of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were the USSR and the US allies.

What do you do?

 

[Arianrhod]

This assumes Japan would surrender to the USSR. Why would they?

 

[ScienceRocks]

no goood choice

 

[Theowl32]

This assumes Japan would surrender to the USSR. Why would they?

Well, if it would possibly save face for the emperor. The emperor would have been open to anything. Remember, the Japanese people considered him to be a god of some kind.

 

[TheOldSchool]

The real reason the US dropped the bombs on Japan IMO. After the Yalta conference, it is important to know that is when the official COLD WAR began with the USSR. It is important to know WHEN that was. February of 1945. Ok? About 6 months before the Hiroshima bomb.

The USSR (Stalin) was making a power move. Yalta became controversial after Soviet-American wartime cooperation degenerated into the cold war. Stalin broke his promise of free elections in Eastern Europe and installed governments dominated by the Soviet Union. Then American critics charged that Roosevelt, who died two months after the conference, had “sold out” to the Soviets at Yalta.

Stalin was not stopping there. He was also encroaching in the Far East. The valuable trade routes were certainly catching his attention. It is apparent that there were clandestine meetings going on between Japan and the USSR. I am sure Stalin was negotiating for Japan to surrender to him and Japan would be able to save some face with the Japanese people. Making it attractive to the emperor.

This is the interesting timeline.

February 1945 the Yalta Conference where the official COLD WAR began.

August 6th 1945, the US drops bomb on Hiroshima.

August 8th 1945, the USSR declares WAR ON JAPAN after invading Japan after the USSR invades Manchuria.

August 9th 1945, second bomb dropped on Japan.

August 15th 1945, Japan surrenders and ends WWII.

Now, imagine this if you are in Truman's shoes. It is rather obvious the USSR was pushing its weight around and trying to take Japan. Stalin counting on the fact that the US could not stomach another long drawn out war. Not with Japan (that was over) but with the USSR.

Patton had seen this and wanted to go to war with the USSR. He rightfully pointed out that the USSR would be a major problem, and their army was greatly weakened. Many of their war factories were bombed where the US war factories were in perfect working order. The US Armed forces hardware were already in the region and so the logistics were pretty much in place.

Politically, it would have been impossible for Truman to sell that to the American people. Stalin counted on that and he used that as an opportunity to take Japan.

So, what are the choices?

1. Allow Japan to just surrender to Stalin and the USSR takes over the region even though they had NOT fought in that campaign and lost no one. How would that have been sold to the American people?


2. Go to war with the USSR like Patton wanted. The US would most likely have won the war, but we would not have had an ally in the UK who were decimated. It would have cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The USSR Army, while greatly weakened would have been very tough to beat. How would that have been sold to a war weary American public?

3. Drop the bombs to get the USSR to back the hell off. Sell it like it has been sold all of these years. It is true that it would have saved thousands of American lives. Just not with Japan, but with a HOT conflict with the USSR.


Those are the choices. What do you do? It is important to remember that the "axis and allies" of WWII was done after the Yalta Conference. That is precisely when the COLD WAR began. No longer at the time of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were the USSR and the US allies.

What do you do?

Option 4. Sign a peace treaty with Japan, nuke Moscow, and take over the world!!!

 

[georgephillip]

Now, imagine this if you are in Truman's shoes. It is rather obvious the USSR was pushing its weight around and trying to take Japan.

The Soviet army invades Korea a full month before the US arrives. If Stalin wanted Japan, why did he share Korea?
A Pop Quiz on Korea

 

[IsaacNewton]

The Soviet Union didn't want to 'take' Japan. Stalin just wanted to gobble up as much territory in China as he could before the war ended. Even after Japan surrendered the Soviet Army continued pushing into China to grab territory and say they helped defeat Japan and should have a say in any peace deal afterwards.

Truman dropped the bombs to end the war quick and save hundreds of thousands of American lives, that is what he said many times. And it worked.

 

[Picaro]

Re option 2 the Soviet Union wasn't that hard to beat, as it was us who kept them in the war at all; while a substantial amount of western aid was still in their hands, and their machine tools were up to date, it wouldn't have been enough to stop a U.S. effort to drive them out of the eastern European countries and back to their own borders.

 

[georgephillip]

"DWIGHT EISENHOWER

"...in [July] 1945... Secretary of War Stimson, visiting my headquarters in Germany, informed me that our government was preparing to drop an atomic bomb on Japan.

"I was one of those who felt that there were a number of cogent reasons to question the wisdom of such an act. ...the Secretary, upon giving me the news of the successful bomb test in New Mexico, and of the plan for using it, asked for my reaction, apparently expecting a vigorous assent.

"During his recitation of the relevant facts, I had been conscious of a feeling of depression and so I voiced to him my grave misgivings, first on the basis of my belief that Japan was already defeated and that dropping the bomb was completely unnecessary, and secondly because I thought that our country should avoid shocking world opinion by the use of a weapon whose employment was, I thought, no longer mandatory as a measure to save American lives.

"It was my belief that Japan was, at that very moment, seeking some way to surrender with a minimum loss of 'face'. The Secretary was deeply perturbed by my attitude..."
Hiroshima: Quotes
- Dwight Eisenhower, Mandate For Change, pg. 380

 

[Theowl32]

Re option 2 the Soviet Union wasn't that hard to beat, as it was us who kept them in the war at all; while a substantial amount of western aid was still in their hands, and their machine tools were up to date, it wouldn't have been enough to stop a U.S. effort to drive them out of the eastern European countries and back to their own borders.

They had a substantial army. That is not really the point though. I think the US could beat them, just based on the significant logistical advantages. However, it would have been an endeavor that Truman would NOT have been able to sell.

The simple fact is Stalin was encroaching on the far east. It was very valuable and Japan dominated the entire region. They were formidable and extremely ruthless. Even more ruthless than the nazis.

A famous very disturbing photo of a Chinese baby on a bayonet.

Anyway, the strange coincidence that the DAY BEFORE the US dropped "fat man" on Nagasaki, the USSR had declared WAR ON JAPAN. That was on August 8th and August 9th the US dropped second bomb.

Effectively ending the war and clearly stopping Stalin's encroachment. That is until they got a bomb of their own. Thanks Rosenbergs.

So, the bombs were as much about stopping the USSR or at the very least letting them know what will happen if they are pushed to a HOT war.

 

[there4eyeM]

4. Instead of wasting bombs on helpless Japanese, nuke Moscow with Stalin and the entire leadership there. The totally subservient Soviet system, lacking all orders from the no longer existent 'top', would have crumbled.

 

[Theowl32]

4. Instead of wasting bombs on helpless Japanese, nuke Moscow with Stalin and the entire leadership there. The totally subservient Soviet system, lacking all orders from the no longer existent 'top', would have crumbled.

Yeah, uhhh, the soviets still had significant defenses. The Enola Gay flew over Japan unescorted cause the Japanese did not even have pilots.

If the US "bombed" the soviets (the US did not have an endless supply of atomic weapons) it would have been an almost impossible sell. The country was weary and did not have the stomach for what would have been a long drawn out campaign.

So, your choice would have been for a hot war with the soviets?

Interesting.

 

[Syriusly]

This assumes Japan would surrender to the USSR. Why would they?

Well, if it would possibly save face for the emperor. The emperor would have been open to anything. Remember, the Japanese people considered him to be a god of some kind.

But why would they surrender to the Soviets?

The Soviets were strong- but had absolutely no way to invade Japan. They wouldn't have been able to even attack Japan by air since they had few if any long range bombers and no aircraft carriers.

The only ones with the capability to invade Japan was the United States and its allies.

What you have proposed is an interesting suggestion- but I don't think it is well fleshed out or completely supported by the facts.

Why did the Soviets attack when they did?

Because they knew the bomb attack was coming and the invasion soon after that and they wanted to lay claim to as much Japanese outlying territory as they could before the war was over.

 

[Syriusly]

4. Instead of wasting bombs on helpless Japanese, nuke Moscow with Stalin and the entire leadership there. The totally subservient Soviet system, lacking all orders from the no longer existent 'top', would have crumbled.

Well a few problems with that:
a) Why do you think that the entire leadership would have been there?
b) That would have been political suicide in the United States for Truman- the Soviets were still seen as our allies.
c) It would have been illegal as hell- since we were not at war with the Soviets- Truman rightfully could have been impeached, tried and convicted of war crimes for doing such a thing.

 

[Syriusly]

Re option 2 the Soviet Union wasn't that hard to beat, as it was us who kept them in the war at all; while a substantial amount of western aid was still in their hands, and their machine tools were up to date, it wouldn't have been enough to stop a U.S. effort to drive them out of the eastern European countries and back to their own borders.

By 1945 that was no longer the case. By 1945 the Soviets had the most powerful army in the world, and likely the second most powerful air force. Their factories had been moved far east, and they had all of the Western rail engines to move their cargo with.

We easily could have lost more men than we lost against either Germany or Japan- the Soviets had superior armor, more artillery, and a decent air force. Our strengths- our naval power- was meaningless against the Soviets- our air power would likely have prevailed eventually- but until then our armor would have been chopped up by Soviet T34/85's and JS II's and JS III's.

 

[Theowl32]

This assumes Japan would surrender to the USSR. Why would they?

Well, if it would possibly save face for the emperor. The emperor would have been open to anything. Remember, the Japanese people considered him to be a god of some kind.

But why would they surrender to the Soviets?

The Soviets were strong- but had absolutely no way to invade Japan. They wouldn't have been able to even attack Japan by air since they had few if any long range bombers and no aircraft carriers.

The only ones with the capability to invade Japan was the United States and its allies.

What you have proposed is an interesting suggestion- but I don't think it is well fleshed out or completely supported by the facts.

Why did the Soviets attack when they did?

Because they knew the bomb attack was coming and the invasion soon after that and they wanted to lay claim to as much Japanese outlying territory as they could before the war was over.

I am following the timeline, beginning with the Yalta conference. Just to reiterate that history will show that it is after this conference in Feb of 1945 that the COLD WAR officially started.

Then combined with the Soviets invading Manchuria and declaring war on Japan on August 8th (two days AFTER Hiroshima) one day BEFORE the US dropped FAT MAN.

It is apparent that the emperor could have seen this as an opportunity to save face with the people. I mean he could have spun it any which way. They certainly controlled the media whatever that was in Japan.

Just remember that at the time of the bombing that the US and soviets were NO LONGER allies. It is a strange overlap in history but significant.

Lets assume for one moment Japan was thinking about surrendering to Stalin and Stalin was encroaching into the region (he already held up a big middle finger to Britain and the US and essentially said what are you gonna do about it) what would you have done.

I am basing it on facts in evidence from the cold war to when they declared war on Japan and it being the VERY NEXT DAY they dropped FAT MAN.

 

[whitehall]

Propaganda photos notwithstanding it seems that the Japanese holdouts were desperate to surrender but Truman refused to talk except to demand unconditional surrender. Meanwhile the Japanese were trying to negotiate with an American ally, Joe Stalin. The issue the Japanese had with the terms of surrender was a guarantee that the emperor would not be tried for war crimes and executed. After both bombs were dropped on civilians ironically the Japanese emperor was saved. Should Truman have adhered to harsh surrender terms dictated by a dead man (FDR) or should he have tried to avoid the incineration of innocent Japanese civilians with nuclear weapons? My guess is that Truman was pressured by the egg head scientists who worked so hard on the Bomb and were dying to use it on humans.

 

[there4eyeM]

What a lack of imagination.
The Soviets would not have been looking for an Enola Gay and would not have intercepted it. They, nor anyone else, would have known what hit them. The Soviet system was notoriously top-down. Take out an officer and the entire unit stopped until politically correct replacements were found. A few key generals assassinated concurrently, and Bob's your uncle.
Make it look like some kind of Nazi vengeance weapon, or a Soviet accident. Or show there was Soviet provocation, with 'proof' they were about to invade France. By the time anyone had the slightest idea about the 'truth' (whatever that was or is), it would all be a 'fait accompli'.
Look at the Gulf of Tonkin, the Mexican-American War, the Iraq invasion. People still believe the excuses. Heck, some still think Pearl Harbor was a surprise!
No Iron Curtain. No Cold War. Perfect and permanent U.S. hegemony. Pax Americana for generations.

 

[Unkotare]

Ignored Japanese Peace Bids Plague U. S., West, with What Might Have Been (August 14, 1965)

 

[Unkotare]

MILITARY VIEWS About Dropping the Atomic Bomb