The Stock Market Crash of 2010 Sept 24th - A day that will live in Infamy.

[loosecannon]

I hope so.

After being shaken, I reestablished my shorts today.

Just asking, but what are you shorting?

I'm not going to say, other than ETFs, because I have been trading very poorly lately, and after a losing a third of my year's profits this week, I am wondering if I am in the proper state of mind.

That's cool.

I am thinking that the time for shorting has passed. And imo it is bad karma.

If debasement is the new global theme then commodities are a sure thing.

 

[FireFly]

I hope so.

After being shaken, I reestablished my shorts today.

Just asking, but what are you shorting?

I'm not going to say, other than ETFs, because I have been trading very poorly lately, and after a losing a third of my year's profits this week, I am wondering if I am in the proper state of mind.

I would not be shorting with the Fed pumping so much money into the system. You never know where it is going to pop up. It is also hard to be long with a sputtering economy.

The M1, M2 & M3 are all rising due to the Fed purchasing Treasuries 10 years out. This is massive Quantitative Easing. It has yet to create measured CPI inflation equaling the massive monetary injection, but it has clearly started rising inflation. Banks have been forced out of treasuries. They tried on the carry trade & Japan stomped them out, so now they are chasing the rare commodities. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Wheat, Corn & Rare Antiques. Christies rare art gallery sold out at this weeks auction. They brought record prices & volume.

People are bailing out of the dollar & buying assets. This may give market some skewed optimism with talking heads screaming the consumer is back. In reality it is lack of confidence in the dollar & people are buying valuable assets that will appreciate & not depreciate like the dollar.

 

[william the wie]

Thanks for the heads up on the art market, firefly. That is far outside of my circle of competence so I never follow it.

 

[Toro]

Just asking, but what are you shorting?

I'm not going to say, other than ETFs, because I have been trading very poorly lately, and after a losing a third of my year's profits this week, I am wondering if I am in the proper state of mind.

I would not be shorting with the Fed pumping so much money into the system. You never know where it is going to pop up. It is also hard to be long with a sputtering economy.

The M1, M2 & M3 are all rising due to the Fed purchasing Treasuries 10 years out. This is massive Quantitative Easing. It has yet to create measured CPI inflation equaling the massive monetary injection, but it has clearly started rising inflation. Banks have been forced out of treasuries. They tried on the carry trade & Japan stomped them out, so now they are chasing the rare commodities. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Wheat, Corn & Rare Antiques. Christies rare art gallery sold out at this weeks auction. They brought record prices & volume.

People are bailing out of the dollar & buying assets. This may give market some skewed optimism with talking heads screaming the consumer is back. In reality it is lack of confidence in the dollar & people are buying valuable assets that will appreciate & not depreciate like the dollar.

There's been a melt-up in the silver market over the past three weeks. Gold hit all-time highs. I read that London real estate is back to its all-time highs. I own gold, at least today I do.

However, the flow of real assets is a pittance compared to the trading flow of financial assets. So when the Fed buys in Treasuries, banks and other institutions are duration matching with the cash they're getting for their T-bonds. Thus, they're buying corporate bonds, stocks, REITs, etc.

I'm short for the near-term. There are a number of technical indicators I look at that show deterioration. Plus we've raced up on volume that has been ~30% lighter than the past five years and we're at resistance. And a few significant charts appear to be rolling over. I might not be short at 2:16pm on Wednesday, or 10am Monday for that matter, but you could see a sell the news reaction after the Fed meeting.

 

[loosecannon]

I would not be shorting with the Fed pumping so much money into the system. You never know where it is going to pop up. It is also hard to be long with a sputtering economy.

The M1, M2 & M3 are all rising due to the Fed purchasing Treasuries 10 years out. This is massive Quantitative Easing. It has yet to create measured CPI inflation equaling the massive monetary injection, but it has clearly started rising inflation. Banks have been forced out of treasuries. They tried on the carry trade & Japan stomped them out, so now they are chasing the rare commodities. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Wheat, Corn & Rare Antiques. Christies rare art gallery sold out at this weeks auction. They brought record prices & volume.

People are bailing out of the dollar & buying assets. This may give market some skewed optimism with talking heads screaming the consumer is back. In reality it is lack of confidence in the dollar & people are buying valuable assets that will appreciate & not depreciate like the dollar.

While I completely agree with everything you posted, firefly, I am not yet convinced things will proceed as intended.

If debasement succeeds there should be a proportional increase in hard commodity prices that corresponds to increase in the money supply. That would indicate that currencies generally were in fact losing value.

But I suspect that something else will happen, that that money supply will not be widely distributed amongst the consuming population and remain trapped within the finance sector and most likely within virtual assets. Like leased gold.

 

[Neubarth]

I can accept that that market would be one that could be predicted within 90% accuracy, after all that is how Goldman Sachs made $100 million/day on the NYSE and Nasdaq in Q1 2009.

But I have a hard time rationalizing that that means much. IMO the stock markets are about as removed from reality as is possible.

Esp since the last year.5 has featured volatility manufactured from thin air.

I care about the goods and services economy and the economies of states, and the American economy. The Finance Economy, as Henry CK Liu defined it, is an abstract. Most of it should be illegal. It looks a LOT more like organized crime and even white collar crime than it does like free markets or capitalism. It is a dangerous risk to all that we rely on as life support.

But then again I have become damned cynical.

GOLDMAN SACHS has been playing games with their computer run trading programs. They can move the market UP on light to moderate trading days. They have shown that to the world on numerous occasions.

In May, Goldman proved that they can tank the market. Yes, a large portion of those sudden sales were from Goldman trading. I do not know if any other house was complicit in the sell off, but they proved that they could tank the market never the less. (Meanwhile everybody is playing a game of "How could this happen?"

It is real simple, you just tell the program to continue round robin selling and selling and selling. I am convinced that the corruption of Goldman Sachs is so total that they will tank the market soon. If they want to play this game to the hilt, you could see it fall to your 6000 number or far lower. Boy could they make those derivatives pay off then!!!!!!

The corruption on Wall Street is manifest.

 

[Toro]

Well, its been the best September in 71 years. Doesn't look like a crash thus far.

 

[loosecannon]

But the fool moon is Thursday and Friday the sky will fall.

You watch!

 

[william the wie]

Well, its been the best September in 71 years. Doesn't look like a crash thus far.

I am wondering when will the back office scandal at the old GMAC start spreading to other banks especially in Europe and the Far East?

 

[Old Rocks]

Again, a worms eye view from the floor of a steel mill. We had been told to expect a slow down by now in orders, with a cooresponding slow down in production by the end of October. Instead, we have had an increase in orders. And actually are adding a few people. And most of our people can expect to work overtime for another couple of months at least.

Don't know how this plays into the national scene, but it is definately better for our people.

 

[william the wie]

Again, a worms eye view from the floor of a steel mill. We had been told to expect a slow down by now in orders, with a cooresponding slow down in production by the end of October. Instead, we have had an increase in orders. And actually are adding a few people. And most of our people can expect to work overtime for another couple of months at least.

Don't know how this plays into the national scene, but it is definately better for our people.

One thing in your favor is that the size of the Chinese labor force is declining due to the one child policy and Germany and Japan are also experiencing labor force declines because of demographics. The one major industrial power with a growing labor force is the US so you may be fine for the foreseeable future.

 

[loosecannon]

bumped for obvious reasons

 

[Toro]

Today's the day!

Too bad I'm not going to be in the office today. I'm going to go watch motorbike racing instead.

 

[loosecannon]

Dow is up, dollar is down, yen is down, gold reached 1300.

Most of those industrial reports were mild.

The dollar is definitely falling, about 4-5% since last week.

The world survived 9/24!

 

[rdean]

10,839.52 +177.10 (1.66%)
Real-time: 11:34AM EDT

24 Sept 2010

When Obama took office, it was around 6,000. Thought I would mention that.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: INDEXDJX:.DJI quotes & news - Google Finance

 

[rdean]

Again, a worms eye view from the floor of a steel mill. We had been told to expect a slow down by now in orders, with a cooresponding slow down in production by the end of October. Instead, we have had an increase in orders. And actually are adding a few people. And most of our people can expect to work overtime for another couple of months at least.

Don't know how this plays into the national scene, but it is definately better for our people.

One thing in your favor is that the size of the Chinese labor force is declining due to the one child policy and Germany and Japan are also experiencing labor force declines because of demographics. The one major industrial power with a growing labor force is the US so you may be fine for the foreseeable future.

That's because of immigrants. Republicans will put a stop to that. They want this country to fail, obviously. All their policies are designed for failure, so that must be the reason.

 

[Paulie]

You make enough predictions, and eventually one of them is bound to come true.

Everytime in the past thirty years when I said something was going to happen is always has.

I have never been wrong.

You got any good stock picks?

 

[Mr Natural]

You make enough predictions, and eventually one of them is bound to come true.

Everytime in the past thirty years when I said something was going to happen is always has.

I have never been wrong.

Better luck next time, pal.

 

[william the wie]

Again, a worms eye view from the floor of a steel mill. We had been told to expect a slow down by now in orders, with a cooresponding slow down in production by the end of October. Instead, we have had an increase in orders. And actually are adding a few people. And most of our people can expect to work overtime for another couple of months at least.

Don't know how this plays into the national scene, but it is definately better for our people.

One thing in your favor is that the size of the Chinese labor force is declining due to the one child policy and Germany and Japan are also experiencing labor force declines because of demographics. The one major industrial power with a growing labor force is the US so you may be fine for the foreseeable future.

That's because of immigrants. Republicans will put a stop to that. They want this country to fail, obviously. All their policies are designed for failure, so that must be the reason.

Even net of immigrants but only very slightly as long as mail order brides are excluded from the immigrant numbers. In all societies but ours and a few analogs lower status males do not breed. In the US you have to be really low status for that to happen. Also upperclass women have lower breeding rates but that response is breeding out worldwide.

 

[Zander]

To be fair, Nuebarth did say "or thereabouts"...so if in the next 30 days the market shits the bed .........we'll see!