The simple brilliance of Darwin's revelation

[Erinwltr]

The simple brilliance of Darwin's revelation

This revelation was natural selection. Evolution appeared, to Darwin, to be a fact that explained the existence of every organism on the planet. And a mechanism to explain this fact was proposed by Darwin: natural selection. But how did Darwin puzzle this out?

By the simple brilliance of recognizing "survivorship bias". Survivorship bias causes us to miss the forest for the trees.

My favorite illustration of this -- for its simplicity -- is Abraham Wald's (who coined the term "survivorship") analysis of how best to armor our bombers during WW II. He was presented with the following information, which shows where returning bombers were hit by enemy strikes:

View attachment 548978
Without recognizing survivorship bias, one might think that the (limited resource, have to conserve weight) armor should be increased in the spots where the bullet holes are concentrated. This would seem to be where most bullet strikes occur, per the data. So more armor should be spent in those places, right?

No. One would better spend the armor on the places where returning planes show fewer strikes. Why? Because the bombers that were hit in those areas did not make it back. They splashed.

Darwin's revelation of natural selection owes itself to the same turn of thought. The other models that are not observed? They died off, and the more successful models propagated instead. That being the case, selection bias would greatly influence what we observe today.

Darwin's answer to the cause of that bias was the brilliant idea of natural selection.

I dig you. Can you please put that in a single sentence or post a video? I'm hung over this morning.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

But you would care if Darwin believed that religion offered a functional advantage that atheism didn't.

I think he very well might have thought that. He even hypothesized about its advantages for tribes.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Protestant Christianity is booming in China

President Xi does not approve

www.economist.com

Ah yes, the 4th largest religion in China, at just over 2% of religious people.

And also, "China has the world's greatest irreligious population", at about 77% and growing. Irreligion in China - Wikipedia

Which was my point. Which you thought you could sidestep with a half truth.

 

[ding]

Ah yes, the 4th largest religion in China, at just over 2% of religious people.

And also, "China has the world's greatest irreligious population", at about 77% and growing. Irreligion in China - Wikipedia

Which was my point. Which you thought you could sidestep with a half truth.

The only one sidestepping the truth is you, bro. You want religion to perish, but it's not going anywhere. That you are proud of a communist atheistic government shows exactly how far you have fallen.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The only one sidestepping the truth is you, bro.

Funny, i am the one that just had to correct the false impression you tried to give with your half truth. Bro.

You want religion to perish, but it's not going anywhere

I have no fantasies that religion will disappear completely, in a species that is basically hardwired to believe utter nonsense. But i would like to see its effects on the world diminish. I can literally sit and do nothing, and that will happen.

 

[ding]

Funny, i am the one that just had to correct the false impression you tried to give with your half truth. Bro.

I have no fantasies that religion will disappear completely, in a species that is basically hardwired to believe utter nonsense. But i would like to see its effects on the world diminish. I can literally sit and do nothing, and that will happen.

Is a growing religion in an atheistic country a half truth

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Is a growing religion in an atheistic country a half truth

Oh boy. Ding, go waste someone else's time.

 

[ding]

Oh boy. Ding, go waste someone else's time.

Best of luck navigating the storms of life without God in your life.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Best of luck navigating the storms of life without God in your life.

Don't need luck or god. Childish ideas for children.

 

[ding]

Don't need luck or god. Childish ideas for children.

Ahhh, vanity. It’s Satan’s favorite sin.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Ahhh, vanity. It’s Satan’s favorite sin.

Hahahah

And the Tooth Fairy's. Grow up.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Okay, now that our daily episode of "Religious Guy Tries to Suck All the Oxygen Out of the Science Thread" has completed...

Circling back to Natural Selection:

One form of natural selection is sexual selection. Sexual selection can produce seemingly absurd traits that would appear to be a disadvantage to the survival of the individuals possessing them.

But our genes do not give a shit about us, really. They only care about themselves.

While sexually selected traits may make an individual less likely to live as long as another without the trait, they make the individual more likely to pass on its genetic code.

This second, brilliant revelation of Darwin helped explain may things environmental selection could not.

Natural selection is brilliant. Realizing also that the "selector" could be the mate (instead of the environment) was the rug that really tied the room together.

 

[ding]

Hahahah

And the Tooth Fairy's. Grow up.

Ahem. Functional advantages.

 

[ding]

Okay, now that our daily episode of "Religious Guy Tries to Suck All the Oxygen Out of the Science Thread" has completed...

Circling back to Natural Selection:

One form of natural selection is sexual selection. Sexual selection can produce seemingly absurd traits that would appear to be a disadvantage to the survival of the individuals possessing them.

But our genes do not give a shit about us, really. They only care about themselves.

While sexually selected traits may make an individual less likely to live as long as another without the trait, they make the individual more likely to pass on its genetic code.

This second, brilliant revelation of Darwin helped explain may things environmental selection could not.

Natural selection is brilliant. Realizing that the "selector" good be the mate (instead of the environment" was the rug that really tied the room together.

I am discussing natural selection.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I think the magic of being human is that our societies evolve.

Yes. Worth repeating.

We have an acute sense of 'self' and of 'other'. We commune for common good and protect the weak. And we have gotten better at this over time. No doubt about it. Our advancement of knowledge is not subject to the sluggish timelines of previous evolutionary mechanisms. This evolution of our socities is hapoening at warp speed, compared to evolution.

 

[Mushroom]

One thing about what Darwin talked about is that few really understand it.

Evolution is still going on today. We can see it all around us, but few recognize it.

during the time of President Lincoln, he "towered' over others. Yet, he was only 6'4". The same was said of President Washington, and he was only 6'2". Look in any museum of "Medieval Armor", and it would fit a modern day 15 year old.

We have gotten significantly larger with each generation. And as advances allow more to reach maturity, they are passing their genes on to more following generations than ever before. Hence, things like myopia are becoming more common through the generations.
'
Evolution is really a crap shoot. A great many mutations pop up all the time. Some are advantageous and survive. Some are not, and fade out again (or are lessened in later generations). But in reality, it is little more than random chance, and that some survive and add to the next generation, and some do not.

And sometimes, it is actually advantageous to become smaller. But even that is not always a solution.

 

[Wuwei]

But our genes do not give a shit about us, really. They only care about themselves

Yes. Worth repeating.

We have an acute sense of 'self' and of 'other'. We commune for common good and protect the weak. And we have gotten better at this over time. No doubt about it. Our advancement of knowledge is not subject to the sluggish timelines of previous evolutionary mechanisms. This evolution of our socities is hapoening at warp speed, compared to evolution.

In short, our genes keep us alive long enough to reproduce and protect our offspring. Society keeps us alive long after that.

.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

In short, our genes keep us alive long enough to reproduce and protect our offspring. Society keeps us alive long after that.

.

Yes, well said.

 

[alang1216]

Yes. Worth repeating.

We have an acute sense of 'self' and of 'other'. We commune for common good and protect the weak. And we have gotten better at this over time. No doubt about it. Our advancement of knowledge is not subject to the sluggish timelines of previous evolutionary mechanisms. This evolution of our socities is hapoening at warp speed, compared to evolution.

I think as our technology has improved our sense of 'us' has also grown. 200 years ago I would have considered myself a Virginian, now I am an American. Much as many despise globalism, my grandchildren will likely consider themselves Earthlings.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I think as our technology has improved our sense of 'us' has also grown. 200 years ago I would have considered myself a Virginian, now I am an American. Much as many despise globalism, my grandchildren will likely consider themselves Earthlings.

Fascinating point.