The Seven States That Will Cost Obama The Election.Based On Current Polling

[JoeB131]

Although Conservatives know of the states Obama is in serious trouble with, The GOP candidate will only have to flip one of these states to take the victory.
First Seven States GOP shouldn't have any problem flipping from 2008:
Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Now, this leaves three other swing states:
Michigan, Florida, New Jersey.

GOP candidate will only need to take one of these states to win in 2012.
Check out this web-page and try to find any way Obama can win. It seems impossible!
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

If the GOP nominates Romney, they won't take VA or NC. Too many Baptists who won't vote for a Mormon.

PA might be a moot point if the Legislature there awards delegates proportionately.

If Romney is the Nominee, The GOP might well lose Missouri, Arkansas and perhaps even Texas. The combination of Evangelicals and Hispanics there could tip the balance in Obama's favor.

 

[oreo]

Michigan went republican in 2010...after 8 year of democrat. I think he'll loose Michigan this time around!!

Obama can't win Colorado again--even democrat governor Hickenlooper stated that Obama is going to have a very tough time keeping this state in his column.

 

[Trajan]

Pennsylvania is close but not there yet.

heres a great site I keep track of.

Columnist Salena Zito - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Salena gets around, big time, small towns, the 'ring' counties around Philly...the regional states in that area...

she thinks right now, it would still go obama....but....

 

[JoeB131]

Actually, I think Obama is going to have a pretty easy time of it if the GOP Nominates Romney.

He really made a race of it in a lot of those Baptist filled Southern States against McCain, and now the GOP is going to put up Romney.

Liberal, RINO, Mormon Mitt Romney.

Obama only lost Georgia by 200K votes. The largest denomination in Georgia? Baptists.

he only lost by 900,000 in Texas.

Now imagine that. YOu have all these Evagelicals in Texas, all these Hispanics who aren't going to like that Romney said their children don't deserve a college education. And you'll have a GOP effort left to a Governor who isn't going to be terribly motivated to help out the guy who beat him.

Think Obama will have a hard time flipping 450,000 votes?

 

[Lovebears65]

Even with those 7 states, that still puts the other 50 states in play.

That's just what I was thinking.

 

[JoeB131]

Even with those 7 states, that still puts the other 50 states in play.

That's just what I was thinking.

Oh, I get it now...

Yeah, that's funny.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

well you also have to consider the chunk of voters who are in that "Anyone But Obama" club. just like alot of the hillary supporters who hated obama, but didn't wanna take a chance with McCain/Palin. Romney is in that situation now. But like i mentioned, if its a Romney/Cain ticket,,,,Obama is toast.

 

[JoeB131]

well you also have to consider the chunk of voters who are in that "Anyone But Obama" club. just like alot of the hillary supporters who hated obama, but didn't wanna take a chance with McCain/Palin. Romney is in that situation now. But like i mentioned, if its a Romney/Cain ticket,,,,Obama is toast.

But there werent' any Hillary supporters who "hated" Obama.

A few who didn't like they way he disrespected her, sure. And a lot today who probably think, "Man, if only Hillary were in there. Boenher would have been found in Fort Marcy Park by now!"

Having talked to Evangelicals, they really think Mormonism is in league with the Devil. They just merely dislike Obama.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

and there's always going to be those in the "Obama 20% Strongly Approve Club" who claim Obama will win in a landslide. Ok, so prove it, find some current facts&polls that state that obama has a 55% approval in Ohio/Pennsylvania and Florida. I am yet to find them on any trusted polling web sight.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

Fl. will again decide this election. He's pissed off a rather large community of Jewish people.

did you mess with the "Click The States" page. There are a few combinations out there where he wont need florida to win. Now this is assuming there will be no voter fraud in Colorado,Nevada and Wisconsin.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Although Conservatives know of the states Obama is in serious trouble with, The GOP candidate will only have to flip one of these states to take the victory.
First Seven States GOP shouldn't have any problem flipping from 2008:
Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Now, this leaves three other swing states:
Michigan, Florida, New Jersey.

GOP candidate will only need to take one of these states to win in 2012.
Check out this web-page and try to find any way Obama can win. It seems impossible!
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

I hate to say it, but Obama WILL win Virgina, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New hemphere, maybe North Carolina.

He WILL win New jersey, Michigan and a strong chance at florida.

300 elv for Obama if you run Cain. Count on it.

Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[TruthSeeker56]

Although Conservatives know of the states Obama is in serious trouble with, The GOP candidate will only have to flip one of these states to take the victory.
First Seven States GOP shouldn't have any problem flipping from 2008:
Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Now, this leaves three other swing states:
Michigan, Florida, New Jersey.

GOP candidate will only need to take one of these states to win in 2012.
Check out this web-page and try to find any way Obama can win. It seems impossible!
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

I don't think NJ is a swing state....national elections are VERY different than statewide elections. Just because they have a Republican governor doesn't mean they're a swing state-Massachusetts was never a swing state in recent history...and they had Romney. I also don't think Iowa, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania are give mes for the GOP (they're swing for sure though).

Florida is certainly NOT a "swing" state. Florida is a GOP certainty.

New Hampshire is also a GOP certainty. New Hampshire swung to the GOP in the 2010 mid-terms, on the federal AND state level. I live in New Hampshire. The liberals are TOAST in this state for a LONG time to come.

I would not call Pennsylvania a GOP state. PA is definitely a swing state. Michigan is definitely a swing state. Ohio is slightly GOP. New Jersey is a swing state.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

well if anyone ever has any doubt regarding any of the swing states,just do what I have been doing for weeks, plug in "Obama in serious trouble in {name of state} or anything relating to Obama's approval in any state. Sometimes I plug in "Obama Will Lose Ohio" or Colorado in play 2012. So far, I havent found any true factoids showing Obama with any significant leads in any of those seven states.

 

[ScienceRocks]

well if anyone ever has any doubt regarding any of the swing states,just do what I have been doing for weeks, plug in "Obama in serious trouble in {name of state} or anything relating to Obama's approval in any state. Sometimes I plug in "Obama Will Lose Ohio" or Colorado in play 2012. So far, I havent found any true factoids showing Obama with any significant leads in any of those seven states.

If you run Cain

Obama will win Colorado by 10 points
Obama will win Ohio by 6 points


Bush hardly beat gore in Florida by half of Percent.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

I think that by the end of the year, we will have a pretty good idea of what to expect next November.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

the only way O'Bozo would win Florida,would be if all the Jewish People forget to vote and if we dig up 950,000 dead people and register them to vote!

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

So now I am hearing that Washington State may come into play, anyone know why?

 

[theDoctorisIn]

1.) Obama still has an overwhelming majority support among Jews.

2.) Cain won't take any "black" votes from Obama.

3.) New Jersey is FAR from "in play". Obama will win Jersey in a LANDSLIDE.

 

[JamesInFlorida]

Although Conservatives know of the states Obama is in serious trouble with, The GOP candidate will only have to flip one of these states to take the victory.
First Seven States GOP shouldn't have any problem flipping from 2008:
Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Now, this leaves three other swing states:
Michigan, Florida, New Jersey.

GOP candidate will only need to take one of these states to win in 2012.
Check out this web-page and try to find any way Obama can win. It seems impossible!
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

I don't think NJ is a swing state....national elections are VERY different than statewide elections. Just because they have a Republican governor doesn't mean they're a swing state-Massachusetts was never a swing state in recent history...and they had Romney. I also don't think Iowa, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania are give mes for the GOP (they're swing for sure though).

Florida is certainly NOT a "swing" state. Florida is a GOP certainty.

New Hampshire is also a GOP certainty. New Hampshire swung to the GOP in the 2010 mid-terms, on the federal AND state level. I live in New Hampshire. The liberals are TOAST in this state for a LONG time to come.

I would not call Pennsylvania a GOP state. PA is definitely a swing state. Michigan is definitely a swing state. Ohio is slightly GOP. New Jersey is a swing state.

Don't bank on Florida going GOP-it's open:

-There's more registered Dems than Reps here

-The population growth mainly comes from the northeast (aka-blue states), they're more likely to be Dem, thus making Florida more blue (not that it's a blue state).

-Each governor election while remaining GOP lately, the Dems have closed in. Sink lost by a HAIR to Scott. This illustrates how Florida is becoming a swing-state.

-Speaking of Scott-he's a very unpopular governor at the moment, and at the minimum will be a wash in the election (with a good chance of hurting the GOP).

-Rubio won for 2 main reasons: 1-it was a 3-way race, and Meek took a lot of votes from Crist. 2-He rallied a much larger hispanic vote than most politicians do here. It wasn't based on his campaign/what he ran on.

Ultimately I think Florida will go to the GOP, however I think it's going to come down to the wire.

 

[JoeB131]

Actually, a bigger problem the GOP is going to have is money. Obama raised 90 million last quarter and he doesn't have an opponent in the primaries.

Perry raised 17 million and Romney raised 14 million. Most of that will be spent in the primaries.

Now again, here's the lowdown as I see it. Because we have this functionally retarded system called the electoral college, half the pie is already baked. There are the 20 or so states that Kerry and Gore carried. There's really no reason to believe that Obama won't carry them as well, especially against GOP candidates this weak.

We then have 10 states that Bush carried once or both times, but Obama carried in 2008. They are NV, CO, NH (1) IA (1) NM(1) IN, OH, VA, NC and of course, FL.

Assuming the nominee is Romney, I can see him maybe taking NV and CO. I don't see him doing well in the bible belt states- VA, NC, FL, IN or IA.

Then we get to the states that McCain carried. Bush carried them all, too. Some I see being very close because of alienated Evagelicals are MO, AR, GA and perhaps the biggest upset of the lot, TX.

Texas could be a serious problem for Romney for a couple of reasons. First, any effort he makes there is going to be spearheaded by Rick Perry's political machine. YOu see Perry going all out for this guy? I don't.

Second, Lots and Lots of Evangelicals. The GOP establishment seriously has disdain for the Evangelicals, but they can't win elections without them. Ever. Nominating Romney is a big thumb to the eye to them, because of his LDS membership and his flip-flopping on social issues.

Third- Hispanics. They are 37% of Texas' population. Let's see how Romney stacks up with them.

Well, his whacky religion thinks that their dark skin is a curse from God. That's going to go over well.

(cursed by God, apparently)

Then there's the fact he made hay by bashing Rick Perry on the tuition for illegals thing. A lot of them are going to remember that. Perry probably damaged himself with the worst elements of the GOP Base by not answering that question well, but Romney was trolling for those folks.

Finally, there's the hypocrisy stance. Old Mitt, who owns four mansions, some of which aren't big enough, used illegal labor to do the yard work on them. Yuppers, that's going to go over well.