The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread

[iamwhatiseem]

Oil touched below $80 and rallied. Europe is rallying off the lows this morning on what appears to be technical buying. This has caused a a retreat off the highs in precious metals.

Pure anarchy is what it is.
I run a business, so I don't have the time to track stocks day after day like this...I prefer to invest/cash out at opportunities only a couple times a year. With this kind of insane day to day falling and recovering - my dough is just sitting idle. Just get the freakin down adjustment over with so I can invest back in already
I did almost 40% in 2009..about 10% in 2010...and it has been sitting out this whole year as I have been expecting this bubble to pop all year now.

[and here comes the post about how this evil conservative wants the economy to crash)

 

[Toro]

Oil touched below $80 and rallied. Europe is rallying off the lows this morning on what appears to be technical buying. This has caused a a retreat off the highs in precious metals.

Pure anarchy is what it is.
I run a business, so I don't have the time to track stocks day after day like this...I prefer to invest/cash out at opportunities only a couple times a year. With this kind of insane day to day falling and recovering - my dough is just sitting idle. Just get the freakin down adjustment over with so I can invest back in already
I did almost 40% in 2009..about 10% in 2010...and it has been sitting out this whole year as I have been expecting this bubble to pop all year now.

[and here comes the post about how this evil conservative wants the economy to crash)

I appreciate you sharing this. It is a common refrain from retail investors.

 

[KissMy]

Oil touched below $80 and rallied. Europe is rallying off the lows this morning on what appears to be technical buying. This has caused a a retreat off the highs in precious metals.

Pure anarchy is what it is.
I run a business, so I don't have the time to track stocks day after day like this...I prefer to invest/cash out at opportunities only a couple times a year. With this kind of insane day to day falling and recovering - my dough is just sitting idle. Just get the freakin down adjustment over with so I can invest back in already
I did almost 40% in 2009..about 10% in 2010...and it has been sitting out this whole year as I have been expecting this bubble to pop all year now.

[and here comes the post about how this evil conservative wants the economy to crash)

All you can do is come up with the SHTF level that you believe is a great price for stock. Then set your triggers at those levels & let the market come to you. Don't worry, this wild market will come to you & execute your trade.

 

[ShackledNation]

My guess is the stock market will rally a little bit again, and then come tumbling down back to very low levels. The inflationary monetary policies of the Federal Reserve simply cannot work forever. Not to mention there are trillions of dollars overseas being held by foreigners. When they start to lose faith in the dollar, dollars will pour back into the US, causing serious inflation. When banks start loaning again, there will also be inflation.

Gold and silver are good choices in this economy, IMO.

 

[Toro]

It looks like the market wants to retest the lows.

 

[KissMy]

It looks like the market wants to retest the lows.

If the Dow only goes down to last weeks low of 10,662, that means gold must at least hit $2,133. I think the Dow is headed below 10,000. It will get to where less than 5oz of gold = the Dow. We will have a negative or flat quarter, but we will not have the aid of cheap oil to help us out this time because OPEC cut production last quarter. This time it is going to be rough.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

You guys catch one of the chief economist for JP on Cavuto a few minutes ago?
As you all know JP downgraded estimated growth for Q4 to basically flat.
When asked 'when it is this close to zero...what would it take to see negative growth for the 4th quarter?"
"There is certainly an elevated risk of that, it won't take much...things are not looking good".

 

[KissMy]

You guys catch one of the chief economist for JP on Cavuto a few minutes ago?
As you all know JP downgraded estimated growth for Q4 to basically flat.
When asked 'when it is this close to zero...what would it take to see negative growth for the 4th quarter?"
"There is certainly an elevated risk of that, it won't take much...things are not looking good".

Third quarter will be flat to negative, then the government will step in to save the fourth quarter. Stimulus 2.0 is coming in September. Until then we are going to retest the lows.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

You guys catch one of the chief economist for JP on Cavuto a few minutes ago?
As you all know JP downgraded estimated growth for Q4 to basically flat.
When asked 'when it is this close to zero...what would it take to see negative growth for the 4th quarter?"
"There is certainly an elevated risk of that, it won't take much...things are not looking good".

Third quarter will be flat to negative, then the government will step in to save the fourth quarter. Stimulus 2.0 is coming in September. Until then we are going to retest the lows.

Well that is embarrassing...don't I feel like a freshman right now.
Of course JP would put a bad spin on the 4th quarter...they must be salivating at the mere thought of another taxpayer windfall.

 

[Zander]

There will not be a second stimulus. It will never pass the House. Period. Obama knows it, but he will still propose one. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6Trillion - he just wants to get some mileage out of saying "republicans are holding back the economy". Fortunately that tactic won't work. Americans are seeing through his cheap rhetoric and realizing that electing a dilettante with no experience was a bad idea. Once he is gone we should see a strong wave of optimism from the business community. Until then, we are going to muddle through.....

 

[Rozman]

IMO, the looming government spending cuts are contributing to world wide panic.

Yeh,crazy huh...trying to get a Government to live within it's means just doesn't make sense to some people for some reason...SPEND,SPEND,SPEND,AND SPEND SOME MORE.

 

[BoycottTheday]

i havnt heard that excuse used yet anywhere else,

did bloomberg insert their political opinion by chance?

Load of crap imho

 

[Trajan]

Oil touched below $80 and rallied. Europe is rallying off the lows this morning on what appears to be technical buying. This has caused a a retreat off the highs in precious metals.

Pure anarchy is what it is.
I run a business, so I don't have the time to track stocks day after day like this...I prefer to invest/cash out at opportunities only a couple times a year. With this kind of insane day to day falling and recovering - my dough is just sitting idle. Just get the freakin down adjustment over with so I can invest back in already
I did almost 40% in 2009..about 10% in 2010...and it has been sitting out this whole year as I have been expecting this bubble to pop all year now.

[and here comes the post about how this evil conservative wants the economy to crash)

Oil touched below $80 and rallied. Europe is rallying off the lows this morning on what appears to be technical buying. This has caused a a retreat off the highs in precious metals.

Pure anarchy is what it is.
I run a business, so I don't have the time to track stocks day after day like this...I prefer to invest/cash out at opportunities only a couple times a year. With this kind of insane day to day falling and recovering - my dough is just sitting idle. Just get the freakin down adjustment over with so I can invest back in already
I did almost 40% in 2009..about 10% in 2010...and it has been sitting out this whole year as I have been expecting this bubble to pop all year now.

[and here comes the post about how this evil conservative wants the economy to crash)

I appreciate you sharing this. It is a common refrain from retail investors.

my goal is simple, retirement value.
Iam and I discussed this at another venue 3 years ago, as I told him then I cashed almost completely out then (80%), and have been waiting, my gold buy 20 months ago was a lark, the luckiest move I ever made, now, I am looking for co's that last have innate and intrinsic value, in any market; proctor and gamble, Johnson and Johnson, walmart, Pepsico, I am buying to hold for the distance. with the limited years I have left, its my last major portfolio move.

 

[Toro]

I have made a list of high quality, high dividend paying companies too, i.e. PG. But I'm going to wait a bit. I want to buy them when they are stupid cheap. They're just cheap now. If you buy those companies and hold them for 20 years, they will generate returns of 10%-12% a year. However, over the next 20 months, they could generate -40%. Many high quality companies traded at 6x-7x earnings with 6%-8% dividend yields at the bottom in the 70s. These types of valuations occur at generational bottoms. We may get one of those over the next 5 years.

 

[dilloduck]

I have made a list of high quality, high dividend paying companies too, i.e. PG. But I'm going to wait a bit. I want to buy them when they are stupid cheap. They're just cheap now. If you buy those companies and hold them for 20 years, they will generate returns of 10%-12% a year. However, over the next 20 months, they could generate -40%. Many high quality companies traded at 6x-7x earnings with 6%-8% dividend yields at the bottom in the 70s. These types of valuations occur at generational bottoms. We may get one of those over the next 5 years.

and I assume these tips are guaranteed ?

 

[Ravi]

There will not be a second stimulus. It will never pass the House. Period. Obama knows it, but he will still propose one. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6Trillion - he just wants to get some mileage out of saying "republicans are holding back the economy". Fortunately that tactic won't work. Americans are seeing through his cheap rhetoric and realizing that electing a dilettante with no experience was a bad idea. Once he is gone we should see a strong wave of optimism from the business community. Until then, we are going to muddle through.....

Republicans are holding back the economy. You don't cut spending when the economy is teetering on the brink.

 

[Trajan]

I have made a list of high quality, high dividend paying companies too, i.e. PG. But I'm going to wait a bit. I want to buy them when they are stupid cheap. They're just cheap now. If you buy those companies and hold them for 20 years, they will generate returns of 10%-12% a year. However, over the next 20 months, they could generate -40%. Many high quality companies traded at 6x-7x earnings with 6%-8% dividend yields at the bottom in the 70s. These types of valuations occur at generational bottoms. We may get one of those over the next 5 years.

well we both know that there is no guarantee that they will get that low, I don't see JJ or PG dropping back another 10-15%....of course I could be wrong and I will have to make up that ground....I went to each of their sites, and downloaded their historical performance, I boxed out their performance vs. the last 2 downturns, I think they have another 5% tops, against that history to go, then wham its time. ( see attachment)

Also it appears to me, now vs. a decade or 2 ago companies are a lot more facile and quicker on the mark to get to net operating bottom+ leaner quicker= net profit, they shed workers quicker, markets are more expansive/varied, supply chains more responsive....

edit- shit you cannot post excel here, anyway, as I said, I did my homework, I have a 13-17 year window, that will work.

 

[Trajan]

There will not be a second stimulus. It will never pass the House. Period. Obama knows it, but he will still propose one. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6Trillion - he just wants to get some mileage out of saying "republicans are holding back the economy". Fortunately that tactic won't work. Americans are seeing through his cheap rhetoric and realizing that electing a dilettante with no experience was a bad idea. Once he is gone we should see a strong wave of optimism from the business community. Until then, we are going to muddle through.....

Republicans are holding back the economy. You don't cut spending when the economy is teetering on the brink.

I think we tried that...the spending thing.

now while I agree that killing all gov. spending is not the way to go, there does come a time when that spending adds net debt that outweighs the short term advantages gained, MOST ESPECIALLY when it doesn't do what it is advertised to do, prime the pump to the economy putting it on autopilot driving higher revenues to offset the spending........

 

[BoycottTheday]

Whats holding back the economy is the liberals war on capitalism.

 

[Zander]

There will not be a second stimulus. It will never pass the House. Period. Obama knows it, but he will still propose one. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6Trillion - he just wants to get some mileage out of saying "republicans are holding back the economy". Fortunately that tactic won't work. Americans are seeing through his cheap rhetoric and realizing that electing a dilettante with no experience was a bad idea. Once he is gone we should see a strong wave of optimism from the business community. Until then, we are going to muddle through.....

Republicans are holding back the economy. You don't cut spending when the economy is teetering on the brink.

That bit of Keynesian wisdom is great if you are following a Keynesian economic plan: running surpluses in good times, and deficit spending in bad times. The problem is we have a huge national debt. We Americans don't run "surpluses" except in our caloric intake. We spend, spend, spend and spend some more!! So Keynes' bromides for economic recovery are ineffective.

We have no other choice except to take our medicine and cut spending. Cut it drastically and deal with the pain all at once. Do that and in 1 year this economy will bounce back with a vengeance.