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Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
A weak El Niño continued during September 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained nearly unchanged across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). Since the transition to El Niño conditions during June, the weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index have remained between +0.7oC and +0.9oC (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. In addition, two westerly wind bursts were observed over the western equatorial Pacific, the first occurring early in the month and the second occurring near the end of the month (Fig. 5). These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Niño.
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
A weak El Niño continued during September 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained nearly unchanged across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). Since the transition to El Niño conditions during June, the weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index have remained between +0.7oC and +0.9oC (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. In addition, two westerly wind bursts were observed over the western equatorial Pacific, the first occurring early in the month and the second occurring near the end of the month (Fig. 5). These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Niño.
