The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

[HappyJoy]

Just another exercise in bullshitting for Trumpbots?

Turds like you are doing all the bullshitting.

Right...all the medical experts in the whole world are outright lying, while a few enlightened people like yourself are the only ones that know the truth....

Are you truly that stupid or are you, like I said, just exercising your ability to BULLSHIT?

but it's DAN!!!!! from SQUIRREL HILL for GOD'S SAKE!!!!

why are you questioning DAN????????????? he knows EVERYTHING ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!!! YOU TRAITOR!!!!!!!!!!!!

You can't argue with what he says so you engage in ad hominem attacks.

Typical TDS moron.

yaaaaaaaaa that's the ticket! it couldn't possibly be that good ol' dan has zero credentials & his article is actually just a blog & not anything written in a peer reviewed scholarly journal... my god man - it's like a poll that exclusively asks trump voters if he's doing a good job.... & you point to it & say see? SEE? americans think donny is doing great!!! SEE!!!!

Your fallacy in your argument is called "appeal to authority. " It doesn't matter how many credentials they have, they can still be wrong, and Fauci is obviously encouraging hysteria with his statements.

Since you're argument is simply "Look at Iceland, because I read an article that I want to agree with since everyone has been tested in Iceland that mean......they haven't all been tested?"

Wrong, dumbfuck. That isn't my argument. Obviously, you're too stupid to understand the argument. Of course that has to be the case because all TDS morons are stupid.

I believe you argument is that COVID19 is less deadly than the flu and you're exclusively looking at Iceland to prove that point. Well, point not proven, fatfuck.

 

[Leo123]

There is not a reliable population of data to create an accurate, predictive statistical model.

 

[L.K.Eder]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

That's not a quote from Fauci, Why are you making shit up? Here it is:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 ​

You appear to purposefully remove the "may be".

Here is a very recent interview with Fauci where he describes COVID19 in that it's more contagious and 10 times more lethal than the flu.

We are discussing how lethal it is in this thread. Your claim is based on ignorance, not facts. Fauci doesn't know how lethal it is. He's a TDS moron like you.

No, my claim is based on people who know what they are talking about, not some rando on the internet.

Fauci and Birx are saying 100k-200k deaths most likely in the U.S.

100-200K IF we do everything right. I assume that means continue social distancing for an open amount of time. I'm curious where they get the number, though. 10% dead of our population of 350,000,000 is 350,000. That's more than a 1% death rate.

those numbers do not seem right. lol

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

That's not a quote from Fauci, Why are you making shit up? Here it is:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 ​

You appear to purposefully remove the "may be".

Here is a very recent interview with Fauci where he describes COVID19 in that it's more contagious and 10 times more lethal than the flu.

We are discussing how lethal it is in this thread. Your claim is based on ignorance, not facts. Fauci doesn't know how lethal it is. He's a TDS moron like you.

No, my claim is based on people who know what they are talking about, not some rando on the internet.

Fauci and Birx are saying 100k-200k deaths most likely in the U.S.

100-200K IF we do everything right. I assume that means continue social distancing for an open amount of time. I'm curious where they get the number, though. 10% dead of our population of 350,000,000 is 350,000. That's more than a 1% death rate.

those numbers do not seem right. lol

Yep, 350,000 is about .1%, not 1%

 

[Crixus]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

STOP THAT! YOU MUST PANICK! Now be a good boy and go buy toilet paper to hoard and glue your self to 24/7 news and PANICK!

 

[xyz]

I looked this up by curiosity. Iceland has a population of 364,250.

So very roughly the US has almost 900 times the number of people.

1086 people have the virus in Iceland and only 2 deaths. However, only 157 people have recovered from it, so it's not over and impossible to extrapolate the final death toll.

The US has already passed the roughly 1800 deaths that would make it an equal percentage of deaths per number of people as Iceland, and is now at 2596. The number of people known to have the virus per total number of inhabitants for the US is of course way smaller.

 

[bluzman61]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

NOT that surprising. The lamestream media HAS to somehow make the Chinese Virus much worse than it is, in their lame attempt to make our president look bad and hurt his chances of re-election. The truth of the matter is REGULAR FLU is MUCH more deadly than the Chinese Virus. Our hideously biased media would rather you NOT know this, of course.

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

Commies want this to be a huge disaster. Commies are always full of shit. Ergo, this is bullshit.

.

 

[bripat9643]

I looked this up by curiosity. Iceland has a population of 364,250.

So very roughly the US has almost 900 times the number of people.

1086 people have the virus in Iceland and only 2 deaths. However, only 157 people have recovered from it, so it's not over and impossible to extrapolate the final death toll.

The US has already passed the roughly 1800 deaths that would make it an equal percentage of deaths per number of people as Iceland, and is now at 2596. The number of people known to have the virus per total number of inhabitants for the US is of course way smaller.

2/1086 gives a mortality rate of 0.184% The TDS morons and fake news outlets give a mortality rate of 3%-4%, 20 - 30 times higher.

 

[HappyJoy]

I looked this up by curiosity. Iceland has a population of 364,250.

So very roughly the US has almost 900 times the number of people.

1086 people have the virus in Iceland and only 2 deaths. However, only 157 people have recovered from it, so it's not over and impossible to extrapolate the final death toll.

The US has already passed the roughly 1800 deaths that would make it an equal percentage of deaths per number of people as Iceland, and is now at 2596. The number of people known to have the virus per total number of inhabitants for the US is of course way smaller.

2/1086 gives a mortality rate of 0.184% The TDS morons and fake news outlets give a mortality rate of 3%-4%, 20 - 30 times higher.

Who is currently talking about a final mortality rate of 3-4%?

 

[xyz]

I looked this up by curiosity. Iceland has a population of 364,250.

So very roughly the US has almost 900 times the number of people.

1086 people have the virus in Iceland and only 2 deaths. However, only 157 people have recovered from it, so it's not over and impossible to extrapolate the final death toll.

The US has already passed the roughly 1800 deaths that would make it an equal percentage of deaths per number of people as Iceland, and is now at 2596. The number of people known to have the virus per total number of inhabitants for the US is of course way smaller.

2/1086 gives a mortality rate of 0.184%

Yes, it does, but if only one guy died, it would be something like 0.09%, so how did Dan from Squirrel Hill get his 0.01246% figure?

He must have calculated some partially dead person?

 

[Leo123]

I looked this up by curiosity. Iceland has a population of 364,250.

So very roughly the US has almost 900 times the number of people.

1086 people have the virus in Iceland and only 2 deaths. However, only 157 people have recovered from it, so it's not over and impossible to extrapolate the final death toll.

The US has already passed the roughly 1800 deaths that would make it an equal percentage of deaths per number of people as Iceland, and is now at 2596. The number of people known to have the virus per total number of inhabitants for the US is of course way smaller.

Stats.....Don't try this at home^^^

 

[playtime]

Just another exercise in bullshitting for Trumpbots?

Turds like you are doing all the bullshitting.

Right...all the medical experts in the whole world are outright lying, while a few enlightened people like yourself are the only ones that know the truth....

Are you truly that stupid or are you, like I said, just exercising your ability to BULLSHIT?

but it's DAN!!!!! from SQUIRREL HILL for GOD'S SAKE!!!!

why are you questioning DAN????????????? he knows EVERYTHING ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!!! YOU TRAITOR!!!!!!!!!!!!

You can't argue with what he says so you engage in ad hominem attacks.

Typical TDS moron.

yaaaaaaaaa that's the ticket! it couldn't possibly be that good ol' dan has zero credentials & his article is actually just a blog & not anything written in a peer reviewed scholarly journal... my god man - it's like a poll that exclusively asks trump voters if he's doing a good job.... & you point to it & say see? SEE? americans think donny is doing great!!! SEE!!!!

Your fallacy in your argument is called "appeal to authority. " It doesn't matter how many credentials they have, they can still be wrong, and Fauci is obviously encouraging hysteria with his statements.

you are certifiable with your TDS.

TDS is something Trump haters suffer from, you fucking moron.

Trump Devotion Syndrome you psychophant.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

Everyone hopes the death rate turns out to be very small. But remember, that hope is pinned on a LOT of people being infected, which means a LOT of hospitalizations, which would overwhelm our hospitals. So maybe tame down the little happy dance, bro.

 

[candycorn]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

 

[bripat9643]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

Everyone hopes the death rate turns out to be very small. But remember, that hope is pinned on a LOT of people being infected, which means a LOT of hospitalizations, which would overwhelm our hospitals. So maybe tame down the little happy dance, bro.

No, actually not. TDS morons are hoping the deathrate is high. They make that clear every time they post on the subject. They always choose the methodology that gives the maximum result and attack anyone who proposes a lower result.

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

 

[bripat9643]

Just another exercise in bullshitting for Trumpbots?

Turds like you are doing all the bullshitting.

Right...all the medical experts in the whole world are outright lying, while a few enlightened people like yourself are the only ones that know the truth....

Are you truly that stupid or are you, like I said, just exercising your ability to BULLSHIT?

but it's DAN!!!!! from SQUIRREL HILL for GOD'S SAKE!!!!

why are you questioning DAN????????????? he knows EVERYTHING ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!!! YOU TRAITOR!!!!!!!!!!!!

You can't argue with what he says so you engage in ad hominem attacks.

Typical TDS moron.

yaaaaaaaaa that's the ticket! it couldn't possibly be that good ol' dan has zero credentials & his article is actually just a blog & not anything written in a peer reviewed scholarly journal... my god man - it's like a poll that exclusively asks trump voters if he's doing a good job.... & you point to it & say see? SEE? americans think donny is doing great!!! SEE!!!!

Your fallacy in your argument is called "appeal to authority. " It doesn't matter how many credentials they have, they can still be wrong, and Fauci is obviously encouraging hysteria with his statements.

you are certifiable with your TDS.

TDS is something Trump haters suffer from, you fucking moron.

Trump Devotion Syndrome you psychophant.

No one gave TDS turds the right to change the definition, shit for brains.

 

[initforme]

You can argue semantics, numbers, all you want. Things are gonna be shut down for another 31 days via president Trump. He knows what is happening and would not extend the guidelines if it wasn't warranted. So don't expect people to go back to work for another month. Trump did a great th

 

[candycorn]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

The imaginary ones that visited you sound like they were coming to your house for a douchebag convention . You were hosting