The Official Dow 7000 thread

[DavidS]

Well, DavidS.

Looking at it another way, you had a 33.3...% chance of being right.

The Market could have gone up, or down, or stayed the same, yes?

The market never does what I want it to.

I really want the market to tank, to finally bottom out so it can start going up again.

 

[DavidS]

Stocks are up! You're welcome, Care!

 

[wimpy77]

stocks ended the day down 80 points on existing home sells data. at least when the treasury department spoke the market didn't tank.

 

[DavidS]

stocks ended the day down 80 points on existing home sells data. at least when the treasury department spoke the market didn't tank.

You mean the federal reserve? Gietnher wasn't anywhere today...

 

[wimpy77]

yeah

 

[wimpy77]

bernanke in the last couple of days did a pretty good job.

 

[toomuchtime_]

bernanke in the last couple of days did a pretty good job.

He has been a calming presence, but we still don't know exactly what the administration will be willing or able to do. The Fed can help, must help, but it's the Treasury that will have to the heavy lifting and it will be Obama who will have to persuade the people and the Congress to come up with huge sums of money to put into the banks. How much he will ask for we won't know until the Treasury finishes its stress tests. Until then, the markets will go up or down according to the latest rumor.

 

[wimpy77]

according to sen. conrad he expect them to ask for another $500 billion.

 

[toomuchtime_]

according to sen. conrad he expect them to ask for another $500 billion.

The official story is that they won't know how much to ask for until they finish stress testing the 20 largest banks, but perhaps a political decision has been made not to ask for more than $500 billion at this time regardless of what the stress tests show. On the other hand, Conrad might just be repeating a rumor he heard.

 

[wimpy77]

could be we shall see. stress test end in what april?

 

[toomuchtime_]

could be we shall see. stress test end in what april?

I don't know, but they're only going through the books of the top 20 banks, so I don't think it will take any longer than that.

 

[wimpy77]

i look for the dow to go below 7000 tomorrow when the revised gdp numbers come out tomorrow for the 4th quarter of last year. it is expect to be revised to a decline of 5.4%

 

[DavidS]

Here we go.... 30 points above 6999 in DOW futures because of the GDP and because of Citigroup.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Here we go.... 30 points above 6999 in DOW futures because of the GDP and because of Citigroup.

And, I suspect, because private economists are questioning the underlying assumptions Obama's budget is based on.


The Associated Press: Economists question budget's economic assumptions

 

[editec]

Care I believe there's a certain amount of loss you can write off, and beyond that you lose. But I'm not positive what the amount is, or if I'm even correct about that. Toro will certainly have the answer.

As for the DOW, I'm still holding my Double short (DXD) position that I took at DOW 8600, and I'm stopping out at 6500. I believe 6500 will be the bottom if we reach that low. That will be a nice profit for me and it'll make up for some of the longs I've been day trading that I lost on, plus some extra.

After that, I'm out of the trading gig until the market gains some real momentum. Looks like that probably won't be until late this year or early next year.

At least we're not getting killed by inflation right now

Just curious, Paulie.

I have no dog in this fight but what makes you arrive at the number 6500 as the bottom?

SWAG? Crystal ball?

Just a hunch. 7000 will be a resistance level for sure, but if it breaks, I think the next resistance will be 6500. I'm betting that by then, we'll know more about what's going on with the economy and if something positive comes out about the financial system, capital will start coming back into the markets.

If it breaks 6500, I'm clueless. The bottom could literally be anywhere.

So basically the proformance of the market is more dependent on mass psychology than how the companies themselves are actually doing?

That is believable.

 

[Paulie]

Right now Ed, yes. The market is moving almost exclusively on data and other news from Washington, and traders/scalpers/pirates/whatever you wanna call em are playing it for all it's worth.

Since most of the DOW companies, and most banks for that matter, are hurting, the market isn't being played on company strength as much as it's being played on technicals like support/resistance levels and GUESSES.

 

[editec]

Right now Ed, yes. The market is moving almost exclusively on data and other news from Washington, and traders/scalpers/pirates/whatever you wanna call em are playing it for all it's worth.

Since most of the DOW companies, and most banks for that matter, are hurting, the market isn't being played on company strength as much as it's being played on technicals like support/resistance levels and GUESSES.

Like I suggested...SWAG -- Scientific Wild-Assed Guesses

Note how many times I've suggested that the Wall street is clueless?

It was clueless when it thought that its fate was not tied to the fate of the huddle masses on Main Street.

And now that the government is playing lord only knows what kind of games, it is clueless because NOBODY knows what they're doing, where the money's going, how insolvent the insolvent bank really are, or what the net effect of what they're doing will be on the economies over time either.

The masters screwed UP.

They screwed up so badly even THEY don't know whether to shit or go blind.

But by damned they're STILL in charge and they want to continue the same damned system that got us into this fix again, too.

 

[Toro]

I'm feeling oddly calm about this all of a sudden.

I don't even care if we fall another 20%. I am feeling pretty confident that this mess is solvable, that the end of the world is not here and that the economy, despite perhaps even being in a depression, we are not going to collapse. I think the banking system is beginning to repair itself.

 

[editec]

at this point i think what needs to be done needs to be done. bernanke is right until the banks are fixed no amount of stimulus will work. how much more do you think they will end up asking for? another $700 billion.

I don't think you quite understand the plan.

The 700 billion is what the people of the USA get to rebuild the infrastructure and what not

The bankers are promised an amount more like $9 Trillion in cash and guantees for their toxic debts.

 

[editec]

Here we go.... 30 points above 6999 in DOW futures because of the GDP and because of Citigroup.

Would that be the SAME CITIBANK which we were recently told was solvent?

NONE of them are solvent, folks.