The Official Dow 7000 thread

[DavidS]

Down 85 points right now to 7279.73. Another 279.73 and we're at 7000. I think we're getting close to 7000. If you look at trends - if we close below 7250 today, we're guaranteed to get to 7000 within the next few weeks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI

 

[Truthmatters]

I fear its going to go to Dow 5000

 

[Care4all]

i heard cramer saying, it is bs that buying the market at this time is a good bargain....that the reason the stock market is down 50% is because PROFITS are down 50% for many of these companies...

so if profits are down 50% for most all the companies on the stock market...will our unemployment rise to such? seems impossible but is it really?

I realize that 80% of our businesses are small businesses not on the stock market so maybe, this does translate to 50% of the 20% are off 50% on their profits and the small businesses are doing much better so the unemployment would not go up as much???

 

[Truthmatters]

Many businesses are opperating at a loss right now. If it doesnt start moving (the eoncomy) in a year or so those businesses will go under.

This is why we need a stimulus so bad right now, to stem the damage from spreading further.

Anyone who is against the stimulus efforts are against their own jobs staying in exsistance.

 

[DavidS]

i heard cramer saying, it is bs that buying the market at this time is a good bargain....that the reason the stock market is down 50% is because PROFITS are down 50% for many of these companies...

so if profits are down 50% for most all the companies on the stock market...will our unemployment rise to such? seems impossible but is it really?

I realize that 80% of our businesses are small businesses not on the stock market so maybe, this does translate to 50% of the 20% are off 50% on their profits and the small businesses are doing much better so the unemployment would not go up as much???

The problem with 80% of the small businesses is that they employ less than half of the country. Our economy is far too dependent upon large corporations - thus if a few small businesses were doing badly in one sector, you could take your skills and move to another sector. With large corporations who are dependent upon their stock price and a littany of the same factors, one falls all the rest fall.

I would support some kind of bill limiting the size that a business can grow to in terms of overall revenue and number of employees. Once a business grows too big, spin it off and create another one. And thus you'll have more corporations that are small businesses in the economy and the economy will be much resistent to fads such as housing, railroad or dot-com bubbles. Of course this will never happen because large corporations donate heavily to politicians so congress can pass bills that will favor large corporations.

This country was founded upon the principles that only rich, white men had influence in our government. Not much has changed, unfortunately.

 

[Care4all]

no David, they employ 80% of the country.

BIG Corporations employ only 20%

 

[editec]

no David, they employ 80% of the country.

BIG Corporations employ only 20%

Yup.

Basically that'll be the 20% who simply cannot understand what the rest of us are bitching about, too.

I don't think that, according to what the SBA calls a big business, I've ever worked for a big business.

Done some outside contracting for some of them, but never got a ride on their gravy train.

I'm betting that if you looked at where the profits go, you'd find the same lopsided outcomes, too.

The large coporations making 80% of the profits, while the 20% eek out a living on the remaining 20%.

Sort of mirrors the asset distribution, too doesn't it?

The one that informs us that the lowest 80% of the income scales also only own about 15% of the nation's assets.

My!.. how coincidental!

 

[wimpy77]

cramer says he thinks 6000 is certain in his opinion. he says geithner needs to either start doing his job or resign. i checked the market and from the looks of it the financials aren't the cause today. they aren't doing all that badly atm. its everyone else including the tech stocks.

 

[toomuchtime_]

cramer says he thinks 6000 is certain in his opinion. he says geithner needs to either start doing his job or resign. i checked the market and from the looks of it the financials aren't the cause today. they aren't doing all that badly atm. its everyone else including the tech stocks.

A large part of the problem is a perceived failure of leadership from the Obama administration on financial recovery. Because Obama-Geithner failed to tell investors exactly what they planned to do, Dodd's loose talk on Friday sent the stock markets into a tail spin, and now a Wall Street Journal article saying the administration will put more capital into Citi and will not allow any of the major banks fail along with repeated reassurances from the administration has turned Friday's losers into today's winners.

But while the administration's perceived confusion about how to handle this crisis has been taking the markets on a roller coaster ride, a load of economic data comes out today and with it revised estimates about how long the recession will be and how deep. Within the last week I was reading that the recession was expected to begin easing late this year, but now I'm reading estimates that ti won't begin to recover until some time in 2010. Since the trend has been that analysts keep telling us it is worse than they had previously thought, I'm guessing we'll soon hear the recovery won't begin until late 2010 pretty soon.

 

[DavidS]

The problem is that the markets hate uncertainty and right now the Obama administration isn't really providing details on their fiscal plans. They're saying "Oh, let's do this!" but not saying how - so the markets sell on speculative uncertainty. Of course, Obama hasn't been in office 45 days, yet and the markets are looking for results NOW NOW NOW.

 

[wimpy77]

cramer says he thinks 6000 is certain in his opinion. he says geithner needs to either start doing his job or resign. i checked the market and from the looks of it the financials aren't the cause today. they aren't doing all that badly atm. its everyone else including the tech stocks.

A large part of the problem is a perceived failure of leadership from the Obama administration on financial recovery. Because Obama-Geithner failed to tell investors exactly what they planned to do, Dodd's loose talk on Friday sent the stock markets into a tail spin, and now a Wall Street Journal article saying the administration will put more capital into Citi and will not allow any of the major banks fail along with repeated reassurances from the administration has turned Friday's losers into today's winners.

But while the administration's perceived confusion about how to handle this crisis has been taking the markets on a roller coaster ride, a load of economic data comes out today and with it revised estimates about how long the recession will be and how deep. Within the last week I was reading that the recession was expected to begin easing late this year, but now I'm reading estimates that ti won't begin to recover until some time in 2010. Since the trend has been that analysts keep telling us it is worse than they had previously thought, I'm guessing we'll soon hear the recovery won't begin until late 2010 pretty soon.

i was watching zandi from moody and other economist last night and he was talking about he still think the economy will recover last this year or early next year. i what like to know the sources you are reading. at this point i do agree you though that the market wants the administration to tell us what the heck they are doing to fix the problem.

 

[Paulie]

Shorts are what are holding the market down at the moment.

I suspect some big players are shaking out the longs for their own greedy purposes.

While P/E ratios don't seem rational, don't make the mistake of thinking this drop isn't calculated. I'm not falling for it, myself. I'm sticking with the few long positions I have and averaging down on dips because I smell a rat.

 

[toomuchtime_]

cramer says he thinks 6000 is certain in his opinion. he says geithner needs to either start doing his job or resign. i checked the market and from the looks of it the financials aren't the cause today. they aren't doing all that badly atm. its everyone else including the tech stocks.

A large part of the problem is a perceived failure of leadership from the Obama administration on financial recovery. Because Obama-Geithner failed to tell investors exactly what they planned to do, Dodd's loose talk on Friday sent the stock markets into a tail spin, and now a Wall Street Journal article saying the administration will put more capital into Citi and will not allow any of the major banks fail along with repeated reassurances from the administration has turned Friday's losers into today's winners.

But while the administration's perceived confusion about how to handle this crisis has been taking the markets on a roller coaster ride, a load of economic data comes out today and with it revised estimates about how long the recession will be and how deep. Within the last week I was reading that the recession was expected to begin easing late this year, but now I'm reading estimates that ti won't begin to recover until some time in 2010. Since the trend has been that analysts keep telling us it is worse than they had previously thought, I'm guessing we'll soon hear the recovery won't begin until late 2010 pretty soon.

i was watching zandi from moody and other economist last night and he was talking about he still think the economy will recover last this year or early next year. i what like to know the sources you are reading. at this point i do agree you though that the market wants the administration to tell us what the heck they are doing to fix the problem.

I saw a few articles earlier, but this is the only one I have at hand right now.

Excite News - Forecasters: Economy worse in '09, better in '10

 

[wimpy77]

A large part of the problem is a perceived failure of leadership from the Obama administration on financial recovery. Because Obama-Geithner failed to tell investors exactly what they planned to do, Dodd's loose talk on Friday sent the stock markets into a tail spin, and now a Wall Street Journal article saying the administration will put more capital into Citi and will not allow any of the major banks fail along with repeated reassurances from the administration has turned Friday's losers into today's winners.

But while the administration's perceived confusion about how to handle this crisis has been taking the markets on a roller coaster ride, a load of economic data comes out today and with it revised estimates about how long the recession will be and how deep. Within the last week I was reading that the recession was expected to begin easing late this year, but now I'm reading estimates that ti won't begin to recover until some time in 2010. Since the trend has been that analysts keep telling us it is worse than they had previously thought, I'm guessing we'll soon hear the recovery won't begin until late 2010 pretty soon.

i was watching zandi from moody and other economist last night and he was talking about he still think the economy will recover last this year or early next year. i what like to know the sources you are reading. at this point i do agree you though that the market wants the administration to tell us what the heck they are doing to fix the problem.

I saw a few articles earlier, but this is the only one I have at hand right now.

Excite News - Forecasters: Economy worse in '09, better in '10

tyvm for the link. i agree with the article

 

[wimpy77]

man its down right now over 200. i think we will be at 6800 before the end of the week unless geithner grows a brain by wednesday and actually says something useful.

bank stocks right now are up, but tech sector which had rally on the last couple of weeks have fallen as has the health care stocks which lead this downturn today mostly.

 

[DavidS]

man its down right now over 200. i think we will be at 6800 before the end of the week unless geithner grows a brain by wednesday and actually says something useful.

bank stocks right now are up, but tech sector which had rally on the last couple of weeks have fallen as has the health care stocks which lead this downturn today mostly.

Can you imagine how bad the market would be if the financials were down?

 

[toomuchtime_]

man its down right now over 200. i think we will be at 6800 before the end of the week unless geithner grows a brain by wednesday and actually says something useful.

bank stocks right now are up, but tech sector which had rally on the last couple of weeks have fallen as has the health care stocks which lead this downturn today mostly.

Geithner, Bernanke and Summers are all very smart guys and they all know that unless we recapitalize the financial system we are not going to recover from this recession, but to do that they have to go to Congress and ask for at least $1 trillion, more likely $2 trillion, to put into the banks, those very banks Congress has been demonizing for all these months. My guess is that these three are preparing for a battle in Congress to get that money.

On Wednesday, the "stress tests" begin, and the Treasury will make its own evaluation of the assets and liabilities on the banks' books to decide which banks are insolvent and have to be closed or nationalized, which are solvent but too short on funds to aid the economy and which banks are doing ok on their own. My guess is that armed with this data, Geithner, Summers and Bernanke will go before Congress to ask for the money while Axelrod sends the President on another road trip to explain to the Henriettas and Julios of the country why giving trillions of dollars to the banks instead of to them is really better for them in the long run.

If all goes well, after everyone in Congress gets some face time on tv to damn the banks and bankers for being so stupid, greedy and just plain evil in every way imaginable, Congress will grant the money but with conditions that sound tough but really aren't. The problem is that some of the Democrats in Congress really do believe the class warfare rhetoric they've been running on and won't vote for the appropriation, and so Obama may need help from Republicans to get the money, and it's hard to say how that will play out.

 

[xsited1]

Down 85 points right now to 7279.73. Another 279.73 and we're at 7000. I think we're getting close to 7000. If you look at trends - if we close below 7250 today, we're guaranteed to get to 7000 within the next few weeks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI

As soon as the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, I took my money out of stocks. I'm glad I did.

 

[wimpy77]

when geithner was before the finance committee after his first speech he basically told the whole panel that the fed would just print the money and not come to congress.

 

[driveby]

The Stimulus Bill blah blah blah .........