Do you buy that? I think it's absurd. They lost almost 1/3 of their best armor in the month of March.
I see a series of continuously shrinking objectives. The so-called "cauldron" is basically reduced to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. I expect the Ukrainians will leave a couple thousand fighters inside the cities, and it will be another 2-3 months of street fighting, tying up the Russian forces just like Mariupol.
Russia has to satisfy itself with (at best), a few small isolated encirclements, which the Ukrainians can slip through fairly easily. I recall a couple weeks ago I was hearing how the Ukrainians at Oskil were encircled and about to be destroyed....
Ukraine was making steady progress north of Kharkiv, but they had to freeze that offensive and move some of the 14th TB to Izium to stop the southern/western advance there. I agree with you that Ukraine hasn't shown much in the way of offensive capability- they are not a maneuver army. But their opponent is even worse, so that kind of makes up for a lot of Ukrainian deficiencies...
I also think Ukraine does not really need the east bank of the S-D at this point. It's a good natural defensive line and Russian ability to cross rivers- well we know what that looks like.
If the west would get off their dead asses and give Ukraine what they need- M270 MRLS/GMRLS, HIMARS, NSM, and ATACMS, they could chop the Russian MSR's....Apparently the Europeans are afraid of a Ukrainian victory...
There are videos circulating this morning of T-62 tanks being moved out of Russian storage. I shit you not. T-62's.