CDZ The Economy

Rye Catcher

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
 

Mac1958

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort.

Things have changed, profoundly, and no one knows how this turns out. Welcome to Capitalism 2.0: Destination Unknown.
 
Last edited:
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Rye Catcher

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort.

Things have changed, profoundly, and no one knows how this turns out. Welcome to Capitalism 2.0: Destination Unknown.
The worst scenario is a Depression, and Capitalism 2.0 may very well bring us inflation and deflation at the same time. Real Estate will fall in value and the cost of everything else will inflate. Unemployment will rise, rent and thus mortgages will default and Trump Towns will proliferate from sea to sea.
 
Last edited:

Mac1958

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort.

Things have changed, profoundly, and no one knows how this turns out. Welcome to Capitalism 2.0: Destination Unknown.
The worst scenario is a Depression, and Capitalism 2.0 may very well bring us inflation and deflation at the same time., Real Estate will fall in value and the cost of everything else will inflate.
It really is tough to say. We should have seen significant inflation after the Fed bailed us out of the Meltdown. And now, the Fed is being used to (1) buy up all crap securities as needed and when needed, and then (2) sell them back off before they start buying again.

Hell, this is my profession, and I don't really know what to expect. It could be that adding the Fed to the mix could help us avoid significant downdrafts. Or, it could be that we'll do with the Fed as we've done with the debt, and just pile more and more onto its balance sheet and create what you suggest. Very possible, too.

Add to that the rapidly changing domestic and global economies, and it's just a mystery.
 

Zorro!

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
I don't think your scenario accounts for just how strong Household balance sheets were going into the sharp COVID contraction. It just goes to show that when you have an opportunity to strengthen your balance sheet, do it, because you never know what emergency is unknown and just around the corner. Going into this challenge, Household balance sheets measured their strongest position, ever.


Unsurprisingly, the economy is roaring back, with job growth exceeding more, each month, than expected by the amazed "experts". By the way, no one really needs an economic "experts" with a perpetually look of amazement on their faces.

We have already regained more than half the job loss and the Atlanta Fed pegs our current GDP reading at over 30% annualized growth, an incredible number far in excess of the best any of us have ever seen.

The Federal Reserve of Atlanta reported, "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 30.8% on September 10, up from 29.6% on September 3.

Double-digit growth in the GDP? That is historic economic expansion.

The Economy is coming back to full strength in record time. We will soon return to full employment with the wage gains common when employers are competing for workers. As incredible as it is now, wait until the rest of the states lift their restrictions.

Once the big states get pro-growth, once they lift restrictions because the disease incidence is less, we’re going to get that economy that continues to boom. We’re perfectly poised for a very, very rapid, continued recovery in this economy.'

The President set the table for American success by ridding it of unnecessary regulations, reducing corporate taxes to the world average of 21%, and by making better trade deals.

As good as it has been through his first term, you aint seen nuthin' get!
 
OP
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Rye Catcher

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
I don't think your scenario accounts for just how strong Household balance sheets were going into the sharp COVID contraction. It just goes to show that when you have an opportunity to strengthen your balance sheet, do it, because you never know what emergency is unknown and just around the corner. Going into this challenge, Household balance sheets measured their strongest position, ever.


Unsurprisingly, the economy is roaring back, with job growth exceeding more, each month, than expected by the amazed "experts". By the way, no one really needs an economic "experts" with a perpetually look of amazement on their faces.

We have already regained more than half the job loss and the Atlanta Fed pegs our current GDP reading at over 30% annualized growth, an incredible number far in excess of the best any of us have ever seen.

The Federal Reserve of Atlanta reported, "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 30.8% on September 10, up from 29.6% on September 3.

Double-digit growth in the GDP? That is historic economic expansion.

The Economy is coming back to full strength in record time. We will soon return to full employment with the wage gains common when employers are competing for workers. As incredible as it is now, wait until the rest of the states lift their restrictions.

Once the big states get pro-growth, once they lift restrictions because the disease incidence is less, we’re going to get that economy that continues to boom. We’re perfectly poised for a very, very rapid, continued recovery in this economy.'

The President set the table for American success by ridding it of unnecessary regulations, reducing corporate taxes to the world average of 21%, and by making better trade deals.

As good as it has been through his first term, you aint seen nuthin' get!
See this link dated July 1, 2019:


"Just 18 percent of Americans say they could live off their savings for at least six months. That’s the lowest percentage of people with an adequate savings cushion in nine years of conducting Bankrate’s poll."

This was before Covid and 30 months into Trump's Presidency.
 

Natural Citizen

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort.

Things have changed, profoundly, and no one knows how this turns out. Welcome to Capitalism 2.0: Destination Unknown.
The worst scenario is a Depression, and Capitalism 2.0 may very well bring us inflation and deflation at the same time., Real Estate will fall in value and the cost of everything else will inflate.
It really is tough to say. We should have seen significant inflation after the Fed bailed us out of the Meltdown. And now, the Fed is being used to (1) buy up all crap securities as needed and when needed, and then (2) sell them back off before they start buying again.

Hell, this is my profession, and I don't really know what to expect. It could be that adding the Fed to the mix could help us avoid significant downdrafts. Or, it could be that we'll do with the Fed as we've done with the debt, and just pile more and more onto its balance sheet and create what you suggest. Very possible, too.

Add to that the rapidly changing domestic and global economies, and it's just a mystery.
The Fed is the problem. It always has been.
 

danielpalos

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort.

Things have changed, profoundly, and no one knows how this turns out. Welcome to Capitalism 2.0: Destination Unknown.
The worst scenario is a Depression, and Capitalism 2.0 may very well bring us inflation and deflation at the same time., Real Estate will fall in value and the cost of everything else will inflate.
It really is tough to say. We should have seen significant inflation after the Fed bailed us out of the Meltdown. And now, the Fed is being used to (1) buy up all crap securities as needed and when needed, and then (2) sell them back off before they start buying again.

Hell, this is my profession, and I don't really know what to expect. It could be that adding the Fed to the mix could help us avoid significant downdrafts. Or, it could be that we'll do with the Fed as we've done with the debt, and just pile more and more onto its balance sheet and create what you suggest. Very possible, too.

Add to that the rapidly changing domestic and global economies, and it's just a mystery.
The Fed is the problem. It always has been.
Why is that? The Fed only commands monetary policy to support the command of Congress and fiscal policy.
 

Zorro!

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
I don't think your scenario accounts for just how strong Household balance sheets were going into the sharp COVID contraction. It just goes to show that when you have an opportunity to strengthen your balance sheet, do it, because you never know what emergency is unknown and just around the corner. Going into this challenge, Household balance sheets measured their strongest position, ever.


Unsurprisingly, the economy is roaring back, with job growth exceeding more, each month, than expected by the amazed "experts". By the way, no one really needs an economic "experts" with a perpetually look of amazement on their faces.

We have already regained more than half the job loss and the Atlanta Fed pegs our current GDP reading at over 30% annualized growth, an incredible number far in excess of the best any of us have ever seen.

The Federal Reserve of Atlanta reported, "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 30.8% on September 10, up from 29.6% on September 3.

Double-digit growth in the GDP? That is historic economic expansion.

The Economy is coming back to full strength in record time. We will soon return to full employment with the wage gains common when employers are competing for workers. As incredible as it is now, wait until the rest of the states lift their restrictions.

Once the big states get pro-growth, once they lift restrictions because the disease incidence is less, we’re going to get that economy that continues to boom. We’re perfectly poised for a very, very rapid, continued recovery in this economy.'

The President set the table for American success by ridding it of unnecessary regulations, reducing corporate taxes to the world average of 21%, and by making better trade deals.

As good as it has been through his first term, you aint seen nuthin' get!
See this link dated July 1, 2019:


"Just 18 percent of Americans say they could live off their savings for at least six months. That’s the lowest percentage of people with an adequate savings cushion in nine years of conducting Bankrate’s poll."

This was before Covid and 30 months into Trump's Presidency.
Well if you like higher savings rate, then you love the Trump economy, we are at historic highs.

 

Zorro!

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
I don't think your scenario accounts for just how strong Household balance sheets were going into the sharp COVID contraction. It just goes to show that when you have an opportunity to strengthen your balance sheet, do it, because you never know what emergency is unknown and just around the corner. Going into this challenge, Household balance sheets measured their strongest position, ever.


Unsurprisingly, the economy is roaring back, with job growth exceeding more, each month, than expected by the amazed "experts". By the way, no one really needs an economic "experts" with a perpetually look of amazement on their faces.

We have already regained more than half the job loss and the Atlanta Fed pegs our current GDP reading at over 30% annualized growth, an incredible number far in excess of the best any of us have ever seen.

The Federal Reserve of Atlanta reported, "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 30.8% on September 10, up from 29.6% on September 3.

Double-digit growth in the GDP? That is historic economic expansion.

The Economy is coming back to full strength in record time. We will soon return to full employment with the wage gains common when employers are competing for workers. As incredible as it is now, wait until the rest of the states lift their restrictions.

Once the big states get pro-growth, once they lift restrictions because the disease incidence is less, we’re going to get that economy that continues to boom. We’re perfectly poised for a very, very rapid, continued recovery in this economy.'

The President set the table for American success by ridding it of unnecessary regulations, reducing corporate taxes to the world average of 21%, and by making better trade deals.

As good as it has been through his first term, you aint seen nuthin' get!
See this link dated July 1, 2019:


"Just 18 percent of Americans say they could live off their savings for at least six months. That’s the lowest percentage of people with an adequate savings cushion in nine years of conducting Bankrate’s poll."

This was before Covid and 30 months into Trump's Presidency.
Well if you like higher savings rate, then you love the Trump economy, we are at historic highs.

[/QUOTE]
 

MadChemist

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort.

Things have changed, profoundly, and no one knows how this turns out. Welcome to Capitalism 2.0: Destination Unknown.
The worst scenario is a Depression, and Capitalism 2.0 may very well bring us inflation and deflation at the same time. Real Estate will fall in value and the cost of everything else will inflate. Unemployment will rise, rent and thus mortgages will default and Trump Towns will proliferate from sea to sea.
Do you have actual economic models you are drawing from ?

These would be computer models with numbers that be used to simulate the scenarios you are describing ?
 

Bob Blaylock

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All of these posts and no one mentions the China Flu. Intetesting......
He made a passing reference to the "health crisis".
Which isn't really a health crisis at all.

It's a crisis of political corruption and abuse, formed by criminals in government creating a fake “crisis” out of a hyperbolized routine flu outbreak, and using that as an excuse to seize and abuse unprecedented powers, and to deliberately sabotage the economy.

The only thing that will save the economy is to end the illegal #CoronaHoax2020 shutdowns, let all businesses reopen that are able, and let everyone go back to work. And for good measure,the criminal filth in government responsible for this and related abuses need to be removed from their positions, and criminally charges for fraud and malfeasance.
 

Zorro!

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort....
Yes. The Fed is not bashful. They will jump in to maintain liquidity and keep interest rates positive.


It looks like their cash infusion is over for now, and they are maintaining at $7.0T

 

MadChemist

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort....
Yes. The Fed is not bashful. They will jump in to maintain liquidity and keep interest rates positive.


It looks like their cash infusion is over for now, and they are maintaining at $7.0T

Computer models that support the predictions that are being made.

Historical data like you've shown, could be used as input.....but it isn't a model.
 

Zorro!

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort....
Yes. The Fed is not bashful. They will jump in to maintain liquidity and keep interest rates positive.

It looks like their cash infusion is over for now, and they are maintaining at $7.0T

Computer models that support the predictions that are being made.

Historical data like you've shown, could be used as input.....but it isn't a model.
With all the junk predictions from models that are clearly politically driven rather than data driven, I don't pay much attention to them other than to test them against real world data up to the current date.

As for the Fed's interventionist behavior, clearly the results are much better than the dire predictions that have been bandied about for the last decade.

If you want to follow models rather than test them against real world data, you are free to do so.
 

MadChemist

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Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort....
Yes. The Fed is not bashful. They will jump in to maintain liquidity and keep interest rates positive.

It looks like their cash infusion is over for now, and they are maintaining at $7.0T

Computer models that support the predictions that are being made.

Historical data like you've shown, could be used as input.....but it isn't a model.
With all the junk predictions from models that are clearly politically driven rather than data driven, I don't pay much attention to them other than to test them against real world data up to the current date.

As for the Fed's interventionist behavior, clearly the results are much better than the dire predictions that have been bandied about for the last decade.

If you want to follow models rather than test them against real world data, you are free to do so.
My apologies.

I did not realize your intent was to make that distinction.

I might have a few questions for you.

Thank you for helping me understand.
 

Zorro!

Gold Member
Joined
Apr 9, 2019
Messages
8,005
Reaction score
1,595
Points
265
Premise: The United States Economy is Consumer Driven

Today we are faced with high unemployment which has impacted much of the middle class and nearly all of the working poor. Before the health crisis it had been reported that 50% of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. We can infer that all of their monthly income went to rent or mortgage, food, energy (HVAC & transportation), car payments, credit card payment and insurance.

Given that Restaurants, Hotels, Bars and movie theaters are not in the picture of the paycheck to paycheck families, and even the upper middle classes and the very wealthy don't eat out or vacation these days, these industries have laid off many of these workers too. Thus, when their shelter bills are due and there is not money to pay them, they will be evicted and be forced to live on the streets, or in cars or vans which may not be paid for.

Owners of Apt Building likely have bills to pay and without rents they too maybe forced to default to the bank. Banks will foreclose and housing will devalue and taxes will not be paid to local governments.

I could go one but I believe I painted a picture that we are facing a Depression unless the Federal Government faces reality and takes action. So far we can't even pass a bill in the Senate to provide families with enough money to survive.

What say you? How does one untangle this Gordian Knot.
The Federal Reserve is standing by with more trillions as needed.

That's not its responsibility, but the Fed is now as important to the economy as the consumer. It now literally purchases stocks & bonds as the buyer of last resort....
Yes. The Fed is not bashful. They will jump in to maintain liquidity and keep interest rates positive.

It looks like their cash infusion is over for now, and they are maintaining at $7.0T

Computer models that support the predictions that are being made.

Historical data like you've shown, could be used as input.....but it isn't a model.
With all the junk predictions from models that are clearly politically driven rather than data driven, I don't pay much attention to them other than to test them against real world data up to the current date.

As for the Fed's interventionist behavior, clearly the results are much better than the dire predictions that have been bandied about for the last decade.

If you want to follow models rather than test them against real world data, you are free to do so.
My apologies.

I did not realize your intent was to make that distinction.

I might have a few questions for you.

Thank you for helping me understand.
No worries. And it is very important to remain cognizant of the distinction between prediction and data. And that's what a model is, a prediction. When a model accurately predicts data, it's done it's job. When it fails to do so or at least approximate it, the sensible thing to do would be to adjust it.

I've noticed that the econometric models fairly consistently over-predicted the Obama economy and under-predict the Trump economy. Clearly these models need some tuning.
 

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