- Jun 6, 2007
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Yesterday, there appeared on TV an excellent interview about Syria by Charlie Rose with Senator John McCain who had just come back from an actual trip to Syria where he met with Syrian rebels. This writer is not one of these disciple types of Senator McCain I think he holds bygone 1950's views of America's strength and ability to change things in the world and he is too willing to sacrifice the life and limb of American service men and women on foreign missions no matter how noble, nevertheless when the Senator advocates in the right which he did in this interview I believe he deserves to be listened to!
The Senator made the point that what is currently going on in Syria with the Hezbollah fighters flooding in from Lebannon to help the Assad regime is a game changer it is like the Battle of Benghazi in the Libyan war where the Libyan rebels were surrounded in Benghazi and faced with annihilation and thus the end of their rebellion; the world had a decision to make then do we let that rebellion fail and face the consequences or help the rebellion and it faces such a decision in Syria today! Remember, these Hezbollah fighter aren't shop keepers with guns they are hardened soldiers that have fought the the Lebanese Army to a standstill over the past decades. They were crucial in Assad's forces today being able to re-take the city of Qusair a key supply hub for Assad's forces. The immense value of Hezbollah fighters is quite clear when one thinks what they offer Assad they can bring hundreds if not thousands of soldiers to a battle that fight in an organized, disciplined and committed manner the rebels are a rag tag bunch of fighters where there is no unified command and control among them and thus no unified fighting force you couple this with Assad's huge advantage in weaponry and wealth it is only a matter of time before the rebel movement is defeated!
Senator McCain made some very prudent assessments of what will happen if the current Syrian rebellion is defeated and it is not only the obvious the loss of an opportunity to bring true democracy to a counrty which is the only form of government that offers a long-term good future for any people and the loss of an opportunity to end a family line controlled dictatorship that is brutal and oppressive in the extreme. After Assad wins, the Hezbollah movement of Lebannon is going to want payment from Assad for saving his neck which in practical terms means they are going to want weapons from Assad to hurt Israel and they will get it because of this debt and what this means is more violent and bloody war between Lebannon and Israel. After the Assad regime defeats the rebels his security forces and their allies are going to go on a revenge rampage like Assad's father did and one can pretty well rest assured that when its over there won't be any significant rebellion effort for democracy in Syria for at least a generation which means the world for decades to come is going to have to live with a radical Islamic terrorist friendly dictatorship regime in Syria supporting terrorism and the threat of terrorism throughout the world a pretty bleak and bad development I would submit. Also, if the Syrian rebels lose do you think the Syrian refugees that have dispersed throughout the region are going to want to return to Syria for they are largely Sunni and Assad is an Alawite a Shiite. What this means is that for countries like Jordan where the current government's hold on power is tenuous and a large number of Syrian refugees have currently sought refuge and the country already has a large Palestinian refugee population and there is many other Jordanian citizens that don't like King Abdullah of Jordan's stance of peace toward Israel which indicates that it is more likely that in the not to distant future through popular uprising King Abdullah and his family will be removed from power and an anti-Israel government will arise in Jordan. So besides the Jordanian government this will leave Israel surrounded with a strongly anti-Israel Assad government in Syria, a militarily strong Hezbollah population in Lebannon who the world knows hates Israel, the Muslim Brotherhood in power in Egypt whose strong religious convictions create a strong conviction to see the destruction of Israel. It would just be a matter of time before they decide they'll get a country with good borders for the Palestinian people and wage a war against Israel to do so and obviously with the weapons the parties can bring to bear the bloodshed will be extreme on all sides I don't think the majority of Americans want this future!
If Assad wins in Syria this is a pivotal event that long-term dashes hope for peace in the Muslim world another thing the world doesn't need. This writers no expert on the subject but it is obvious to reasonably informed members of the world public this would be the case. The Syrian conflict is really a conflict between the Sunni and Shiite Sects of Islam, the rebels are Sunni and the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran are Shiites. If Assad wins its a victory for Iran and we know that Iran at least from a religious standpoint is behind the violence in Iraq the essence of the conflict in Iraq is the coward and character depraved Prime Minister Maliki and his Shiite government are persecuting and mistreating the Sunni population of Iraq and it is a fact that Maliki stays in power because of the support of the Muqtada al Sadr faction of Shiites and Sadr lived and studied the Muslim religion for a long time in Iran where he became a disciple of the Iranian Shite theocracy where he is doing its bidding in suppressing Sunnism in Iraq. It's well known that Iran is trying to sow inter-Muslim discord throughout the Middle East leaders in Saudi Arabia have acknowledged such in their country. Heck even the conflict in Afghanistan is largely an inner Muslim conflict, the Taliban are Islamic extremist and the non-Taliban to a significant degree are secular Muslims.
Another reason why the White House might want to rethink their position on Syria is that if the Syrian rebellion fails President Barack Obama'a credibility in the Arab World crashes and his ability to get stuff done with these peoples takes a big hit! He will be perceived by the Arab street as not caring about Muslims as not a stand-up guy and that his word means nothing. Muslims will think this guy told the Syrian government not to use chemical weapons on its people or you'll pay a severe price and these weapons are used not once but like five times and the American President does nothing he deserves no respect.
Senator McCain said some really wise things about America and its allies military options in Syria. America doesn't have to put any boots on the ground and no pilots over Syrian territory where they could be shot down. Senator McCain is just calling for the establishment of a "safe zone" in northern Syria for the rebels. The biggest threat to the rebels in Syria is the Syrian army's air power, if the wings of Syrian airforce could be dramatically clipped the rebels with the help of the world could create this safe zone. The senator's contention is that there is about four or five Syrian airfields that really threaten the safe zone. What the U.S. should do is use its "cruise" missiles to disable these airfields runways and possibly some planes on the ground and as they rebuild repeat this "cruise" suppression. The U.S. and Turkey should also move the patriot batteries to the border of Turkey bordering the safe zone and use those batteries to shoot down Syrian planes that enter the safe zone where possible. Also use U.S. drones in the safe zones that have air to air missles that could fight the Syrian Airforce's planes. The real destructive threat to the rebels from the Syrian airforce currently is that those planes and helicoptors have the capacity to get low and on top of the rebels and drop their bombs and rockets effectively, the U.S. and its allies could arm the rebels with high caliber large machine guns that could stop this Syrian close air support threat. Of course, the U.S. would not give the Syrian rebels any stinger (ground-to-air) missiles that could find their way into the hands of Israel's enemies or the U.S.'s enemies in Afghanistan that could be used to shoot down U.S. pilots currently operating there!
Arming the non-Jihadi rebels and helping create a "safe zone" should be a game changer in favor of the Syrian rebels. First, creating a safe zone would allow for the rebels to put together a formidable controlled fighting force not a perfect one but it doesn't have to be perfect they only have to be strong enough to beat the Syrian army just like the Libyan rebels. Secondly creating a safe zone would allow the rebels to assemble an important ground to ground weapons force (of course with the weapon donations from the U.S. and others) which they could use to drive down the center of the country within range of Lebanon. There they could finish what they started in subjecting Hezbollah bases in Lebanon and Hezbollah routes into Syria to artillery fire. This would create compelling pressure on Hezbollah leaders to rethink their decision to come to the aid of Assad. If Hezbollah can be taken out of the equation the long held prevailing wisdom about Syria returns which is it is only a matter of time before Assad falls he has too much blood on his hands there is too much hatred toward him in Syria and he is a member of a minority group in Syria, Alawites make up twelve percent of the population and Sunnis make up seventy-four percent and Assad turned this into a religious war. The rebellion in Libya crystal clearly teaches any group of peoples that want to defeat a very mediocre army like exists in Syria today how to do it, give the rebels artillery power and time and they can just pound their enemies into submission and defeat. The other thing that could result if the U.S. and its allies efforts on this safe zone and arming the rebels ideas takes hold is that Assad ends up coming to the negotiating table and a deal is struck where Assad permanently takes a hike from Syria and fair elections are held in Syria to determine his replacement. Assad's Syrian backers are just human if the rebels get this upper hand the backers will realize it's in their best financial and quality of life interests to get Assad out of the picture and they'll pressure him to accept this deal!
The Senator made the point that what is currently going on in Syria with the Hezbollah fighters flooding in from Lebannon to help the Assad regime is a game changer it is like the Battle of Benghazi in the Libyan war where the Libyan rebels were surrounded in Benghazi and faced with annihilation and thus the end of their rebellion; the world had a decision to make then do we let that rebellion fail and face the consequences or help the rebellion and it faces such a decision in Syria today! Remember, these Hezbollah fighter aren't shop keepers with guns they are hardened soldiers that have fought the the Lebanese Army to a standstill over the past decades. They were crucial in Assad's forces today being able to re-take the city of Qusair a key supply hub for Assad's forces. The immense value of Hezbollah fighters is quite clear when one thinks what they offer Assad they can bring hundreds if not thousands of soldiers to a battle that fight in an organized, disciplined and committed manner the rebels are a rag tag bunch of fighters where there is no unified command and control among them and thus no unified fighting force you couple this with Assad's huge advantage in weaponry and wealth it is only a matter of time before the rebel movement is defeated!
Senator McCain made some very prudent assessments of what will happen if the current Syrian rebellion is defeated and it is not only the obvious the loss of an opportunity to bring true democracy to a counrty which is the only form of government that offers a long-term good future for any people and the loss of an opportunity to end a family line controlled dictatorship that is brutal and oppressive in the extreme. After Assad wins, the Hezbollah movement of Lebannon is going to want payment from Assad for saving his neck which in practical terms means they are going to want weapons from Assad to hurt Israel and they will get it because of this debt and what this means is more violent and bloody war between Lebannon and Israel. After the Assad regime defeats the rebels his security forces and their allies are going to go on a revenge rampage like Assad's father did and one can pretty well rest assured that when its over there won't be any significant rebellion effort for democracy in Syria for at least a generation which means the world for decades to come is going to have to live with a radical Islamic terrorist friendly dictatorship regime in Syria supporting terrorism and the threat of terrorism throughout the world a pretty bleak and bad development I would submit. Also, if the Syrian rebels lose do you think the Syrian refugees that have dispersed throughout the region are going to want to return to Syria for they are largely Sunni and Assad is an Alawite a Shiite. What this means is that for countries like Jordan where the current government's hold on power is tenuous and a large number of Syrian refugees have currently sought refuge and the country already has a large Palestinian refugee population and there is many other Jordanian citizens that don't like King Abdullah of Jordan's stance of peace toward Israel which indicates that it is more likely that in the not to distant future through popular uprising King Abdullah and his family will be removed from power and an anti-Israel government will arise in Jordan. So besides the Jordanian government this will leave Israel surrounded with a strongly anti-Israel Assad government in Syria, a militarily strong Hezbollah population in Lebannon who the world knows hates Israel, the Muslim Brotherhood in power in Egypt whose strong religious convictions create a strong conviction to see the destruction of Israel. It would just be a matter of time before they decide they'll get a country with good borders for the Palestinian people and wage a war against Israel to do so and obviously with the weapons the parties can bring to bear the bloodshed will be extreme on all sides I don't think the majority of Americans want this future!
If Assad wins in Syria this is a pivotal event that long-term dashes hope for peace in the Muslim world another thing the world doesn't need. This writers no expert on the subject but it is obvious to reasonably informed members of the world public this would be the case. The Syrian conflict is really a conflict between the Sunni and Shiite Sects of Islam, the rebels are Sunni and the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran are Shiites. If Assad wins its a victory for Iran and we know that Iran at least from a religious standpoint is behind the violence in Iraq the essence of the conflict in Iraq is the coward and character depraved Prime Minister Maliki and his Shiite government are persecuting and mistreating the Sunni population of Iraq and it is a fact that Maliki stays in power because of the support of the Muqtada al Sadr faction of Shiites and Sadr lived and studied the Muslim religion for a long time in Iran where he became a disciple of the Iranian Shite theocracy where he is doing its bidding in suppressing Sunnism in Iraq. It's well known that Iran is trying to sow inter-Muslim discord throughout the Middle East leaders in Saudi Arabia have acknowledged such in their country. Heck even the conflict in Afghanistan is largely an inner Muslim conflict, the Taliban are Islamic extremist and the non-Taliban to a significant degree are secular Muslims.
Another reason why the White House might want to rethink their position on Syria is that if the Syrian rebellion fails President Barack Obama'a credibility in the Arab World crashes and his ability to get stuff done with these peoples takes a big hit! He will be perceived by the Arab street as not caring about Muslims as not a stand-up guy and that his word means nothing. Muslims will think this guy told the Syrian government not to use chemical weapons on its people or you'll pay a severe price and these weapons are used not once but like five times and the American President does nothing he deserves no respect.
Senator McCain said some really wise things about America and its allies military options in Syria. America doesn't have to put any boots on the ground and no pilots over Syrian territory where they could be shot down. Senator McCain is just calling for the establishment of a "safe zone" in northern Syria for the rebels. The biggest threat to the rebels in Syria is the Syrian army's air power, if the wings of Syrian airforce could be dramatically clipped the rebels with the help of the world could create this safe zone. The senator's contention is that there is about four or five Syrian airfields that really threaten the safe zone. What the U.S. should do is use its "cruise" missiles to disable these airfields runways and possibly some planes on the ground and as they rebuild repeat this "cruise" suppression. The U.S. and Turkey should also move the patriot batteries to the border of Turkey bordering the safe zone and use those batteries to shoot down Syrian planes that enter the safe zone where possible. Also use U.S. drones in the safe zones that have air to air missles that could fight the Syrian Airforce's planes. The real destructive threat to the rebels from the Syrian airforce currently is that those planes and helicoptors have the capacity to get low and on top of the rebels and drop their bombs and rockets effectively, the U.S. and its allies could arm the rebels with high caliber large machine guns that could stop this Syrian close air support threat. Of course, the U.S. would not give the Syrian rebels any stinger (ground-to-air) missiles that could find their way into the hands of Israel's enemies or the U.S.'s enemies in Afghanistan that could be used to shoot down U.S. pilots currently operating there!
Arming the non-Jihadi rebels and helping create a "safe zone" should be a game changer in favor of the Syrian rebels. First, creating a safe zone would allow for the rebels to put together a formidable controlled fighting force not a perfect one but it doesn't have to be perfect they only have to be strong enough to beat the Syrian army just like the Libyan rebels. Secondly creating a safe zone would allow the rebels to assemble an important ground to ground weapons force (of course with the weapon donations from the U.S. and others) which they could use to drive down the center of the country within range of Lebanon. There they could finish what they started in subjecting Hezbollah bases in Lebanon and Hezbollah routes into Syria to artillery fire. This would create compelling pressure on Hezbollah leaders to rethink their decision to come to the aid of Assad. If Hezbollah can be taken out of the equation the long held prevailing wisdom about Syria returns which is it is only a matter of time before Assad falls he has too much blood on his hands there is too much hatred toward him in Syria and he is a member of a minority group in Syria, Alawites make up twelve percent of the population and Sunnis make up seventy-four percent and Assad turned this into a religious war. The rebellion in Libya crystal clearly teaches any group of peoples that want to defeat a very mediocre army like exists in Syria today how to do it, give the rebels artillery power and time and they can just pound their enemies into submission and defeat. The other thing that could result if the U.S. and its allies efforts on this safe zone and arming the rebels ideas takes hold is that Assad ends up coming to the negotiating table and a deal is struck where Assad permanently takes a hike from Syria and fair elections are held in Syria to determine his replacement. Assad's Syrian backers are just human if the rebels get this upper hand the backers will realize it's in their best financial and quality of life interests to get Assad out of the picture and they'll pressure him to accept this deal!
