This is not to say that we can return to the demand-centered policies of the postwar years, when economic growth was well above where it has been over the last three decades,
I don't believe we will ever again have the large numbers of citizens with good disposable incomes like we had in the not to distant past. The jobs that earned that good income are gone. And are not coming back in numbers great enough to make a difference.
Lets say we are moving away from the idea of people being able to move up in "class" through hard work alone; ie from lower to middle to upper middle to affluent to rich to very rich. Lets say we are going to a society of the have and the have nots.
The have nots will be counted on to purchase basic living necessities but will not be much of a contributor to growth in the discretionary spending markets. Their new TV will come from Craigslist or Goodwill or a friend with a good job selling his old stuff.
The future does not look too bright for those without the advantage of education and contacts. Who you know has never been more important than it is today. Relationships with other successful people will be paramount.
If you are poor, un educated, lacking good skills in math and reading (which is millions of people) then you are fucked for your lifetime. Survival will be what you concentrate on.
And we will have a hard time growing like we used to. IMO.
More excellent valid points, but probably not the ones you think:
1. Education - so much of the generic "education" is not financially productive. A graduate degree in "Educational Technology" is a bad financial investment usually. Yes the teacher who as one (like my sister) makes more, but it's a wash when the cost to get that degree plus the interest on the student loan is considered. She would have been better off waiting tables during the time it took to obtain that MA instead of now waiting tables to pay off the loan and pre-spending the raise she anticipated. Ditto for the doctorate she never obtained (family issues prevented her from competing her thesis so she's got a post-graduate certificate). Another sister of mine has an MBA that her company paid for. She is now learning that her MBA didn't teach her how to run a business, it taught her how to be a productive middle management employee in a large company. 10 years later, that doesn't help for advancement. Then there's all the "follow your heart" purists that counseled kids into pursuing esoteric and expensive degrees in history and "general business" without any regard for actual career paths. Most of those people would have been better off learning a skill because when almost everyone has a bachelor's, your bachelor's just gets your foot in the door to an interview. If your skills don't line up with what the employer needs, you won't get the job.
This was true for computer science majors in the early 2000s too. If you could write some extremely tight C++, you might get hired as a trainee in a java shop. If your computer science "education" was theory, algorithms, scheme, fortran, html and fortran, you'd be passed over.
2. The consumer economy: I think this was a bad idea and if it was architected it was especially stupid. It's unsustainable. Give more money to people so that they can spend more money and that creates prosperity? No. It doesn't. It creates a temporary condition of euphoria and living for now because the future is going to take care of itself (because that's how it worked for the previous generation).
3. The survival economy: That's actually not too bad, it's more in line with the good ideals of the pure free market as long as it's an efficient market. A readjustment of expectations wouldn't be terrible. I've had 15 cars in my lifetime and all but two were used. While I believe in choice and freedom, I think it's stupid that we have a system that encourages someone my age who has always made about a third of what I have made to have never bought a used car, ever. Of course now this guy realizes that he's just been kicking the can down the road and he doesn't qualify for financing on the new Passat he wants. He's been paying about the same $300 per month for 20 years and he's been upgrading every few years. Depreciation is a *****. Of course this guy says I'm lucky enough to afford a 2007 BMW because I'm "rich." The Passat he wants is about $30,000. That's what I paid for my used BMW. Yeah, I never get to drive around in a flashy new car that nobody has ever seen, but I like my 07 328. It's fun and affordable. I never thought about buying a $30,000 car when I was making what this guy is making. He's stuck in a cycle of perpetual car payments because he doesn't think he should downgrade. I'm probably going to deliberately downgrade because I have to get serious about retirement now that it's 20 years away.
So the survival economy would be good in that instance.
3.5: The survival economy: Survival is an excellent motivator. One of the reasons so many professionals are bad at finance is because they've been enabled to kick the can down the road for so long. Houses are not financial investments for middle class consumers. Putting vacations and Christmas on credit cards because you can't afford to pay cash for them is bad for the economy (both yours and the nation), and buying a car equal to your yearly take home pay is just stupid. All of these things are common, and in many circles it's said that the reason this happens is because of income inequality.
No, it's financial literacy inequality. I don't want sweeping government power that prevents a middle class person from borrowing a whole lot of money for what they want. But I also don't want a system that encourages them to do so and then allows them the excuse that their potential future earnings were stolen from them due to some trade deal and that if they vote for this person he's going to fix things and make it all work out - and if it doesn't well they'll be fine because here's some assistance because we're "compassionate" and if we just tax the rich folks some more they'll get their promise of prosperity.
It's clear that those with serious financial means have been adept at surviving. Maybe it's time to stop trying to build ourselves up by tearing them down and instead increase financial liberty all around. Don't worry, the rich will pay because their pampered children won't be as hungry as the poor capitalist trying to start the next Broadcast.com. But convincing young people that they don't have a chance and locking them into the entitlement mentality is unsustainable.
4. The future without education and contacts: The Internet is the great equalizer. You don't have to compete with Google or eBay, they are focused on markets a single person can't reach. They are large organizations with large bureaucracies, which means they leave lots of meat on the bone. While an education is still generally a good idea, one does not need a college degree and a set of contacts to prosper. All one needs is an idea the drive to figure out how to reach customers. Facebook, eBay, and Google are excellent conduits - way better than the old Yellow Pages and Chamber of Commerce routes. So many functions that were expensive before are now actually quite cheap. It used to be a big deal to be able to accept credit cards at a business and now anyone with a bank account can do it with a smartphone and paypal. Getting exposure to 1000 people in your town used to be impossible because without a $20,000 budget nobody would make a video and put it on the local TV station for you but now it's possible for cheap using youtube and facebook.
Economists say that most of the new Internet companies are going to follow the same path as the early car manufacturers. In the early 1900s there were over 2000 car manufacturers in Detroit. By the 1930s there were only 10. But the difference now is that things are so much more efficient, anyone can be a business owner and they don't have to take risks that they can't afford. You don't have to invest in huge expensive machines that turn steel into parts which are then assembled into cars. All you need is an a idea and a website.
Maybe this is just a situation where the guarantees decline but the potential increases. That's the problem with the 1950s union tract, it was limited. One could be a great worker and be a senior foreman at 50 doing well, but that was the end of the potential. He was guaranteed a "good" wage and a "good" retirement, but he never got to start his own company. Yay for the guys who never wanted to do that, but it sucked a whole lot for the guys who did but were locked out. Those conditions don't exist anymore. You don't have to be friends with a banker so that he can "take a chance on you" and put you in front of some suits so that they can decide if you get a loan for your new business. Now you have other options - crowdfunding, home equity loans, enterprise encouragement organizations, etc. Plus it's way way cheaper to start a company now than it was back then.