The Coming Civil War - David Betz

[Zincwarrior]

Nope.

 

[Zincwarrior]

You don't have to assume that, because that is pretty much a fact of war.
What else are suggesting it could be, "Yay fun, we won" or something?

I don't know. I did not start the thread

 

[Zincwarrior]

Lolz, "Keeping It Weird" Austin, I should have known.
I'm over that direction a lot, although I don't wander south of the Beer Market in Florence, unless going to Lake Georgetown.

North of Austin. I like TSA in Florence.

 

[Zincwarrior]

Lolz, "Keeping It Weird" Austin, I should have known.
I'm over that direction a lot, although I don't wander south of the Beer Market in Florence, unless going to Lake Georgetown.

Try the Palace Theater there. They have fun musicals. 600 degree pizza is nice too.

 

[Bitterhook]

Try the Palace Theater there. They have fun musicals. 600 degree pizza is nice too.

There is surprisingly a lot to do all around that neck of the woods North of Austin, and I usually stay at one of two places on the San Miguel River (that even has water in it sometimes).

I am not really knocking Austin because I don't go there and wouldn't know, but I do know a lot of folks from Austin.
The last time I was down there, some friends with me were going shopping in Round Rock, and I gave them $40 and told them to pick up something for dinner. They brought back some $38 artisan gucci pizza that was kind of small and tasted like ass.

Pizza is much better in Florence.

 

[marvin martian]

Now we're talking.
View attachment 1199613

LOL! ^^^Something only a Euro cosplaying as an American would post,

 

[marvin martian]

There is surprisingly a lot to do all around that neck of the woods North of Austin, and I usually stay at one of two places on the San Miguel River (that even has water in it sometimes).

I am not really knocking Austin because I don't go there and wouldn't know, but I do know a lot of folks from Austin.
The last time I was down there, some friends with me were going shopping in Round Rock, and I gave them $40 and told them to pick up something for dinner. They brought back some $38 artisan gucci pizza that was kind of small and tasted like ass.

Pizza is much better in Florence.

Zincwarrior doesn't live in Texas, he's just cosplaying.

 

[el midgetron]

So you are not in denial which means you know its going to happen, right? If so wouldn't you be leaving the country?

I don’t know what’s going to happen but I’m also not afraid of what might happen. None of us are going to live forever.

You leftists are way more wrapped up in yourselves. Gotta have your own special pronouns and your virtue signaling yard signs. A unhealthy preoccupation with self preservation is more a narcissistic leftist thing. If it gets ugly, most liberals will double mask-up, take the experimental vaccine and be to freaked out to leave their homes.

 

[Zincwarrior]

I don’t know what’s going to happen but I’m also not afraid of what might happen. None of us are going to live forever.

You leftists are way more wrapped up in yourselves. Gotta have your own special pronouns and your virtue signaling yard signs. A unhealthy preoccupation with self preservation is more a narcissistic leftist thing. If it gets ugly, most liberals will double mask-up, take the experimental vaccine and be to freaked out to leave their homes.

You are not afraid but wanting it. Thats not mentally lucid.

 

[Nobody911]

I've been listening a lot to this guy lately. It's absolutely fascinating.



He's a professor of war in the modern world at the Department of War, King's College London.

David Betz - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The tl;dr version is that based on his studies of civil war around the world, civil war is inevitable in the west. We've already gone over the tipping point and it will likely occur within the near future.

He says the run up to civil war is characterized by three things. First is extreme factionalism, where people in the country become tribalized and stop talking to the other tribe within the country over issues. The second is "downgrading," or the academic term for The Great Replacement Theory, where the dominant group loses status to other groups. The third is the loss of trust, particularly in government to solve issues, with the ruling elites ignoring the wishes of the dominant group.

He says all civil wars are different, and there aren't many great analogues since context varies greatly from country to country. He believes that the coming civil war will be a low grade war, characterized by paramilitary groups, assassinations, clashes, and sieges particularly around attacks on infrastructure.

Here are strategies to mitigate the risk of potential civil wars.

1. Inequality & grievance – Reducing material disparity tackles the “relative deprivation” driver that Fearon & Laitin identify as a strong predictor of civil war.
2. Polarisation & legitimacy – Inclusive politics and transparent governance restore faith in the state, counteracting the “loss of shared narrative” Betz warns about.
3. Identity‑based fault lines – Targeted reconciliation and anti‑hate policies prevent racism or ethnic bias from being weaponised by extremist groups.
4. State capacity – Hardened infrastructure and decentralised response limit the effectiveness of “system‑disruption” attacks that Betz flags as a catalyst for escalation.
5. Hybrid‑war tools – Cyber‑defences and media‑literacy blunt the modern “dirty‑war” tactics that can turn small‑scale unrest into a broader conflict.
6. Social cohesion – Strong civil‑society networks act as a buffer, providing non‑violent outlets for dissent and reducing the appeal of militant groups.
7. Early‑warning – Continuous monitoring catches the combination of stressors before they reach a tipping point, allowing pre‑emptive policy adjustments.

Do you know? Why a bullet or a bomb cannot destroy water?

 

[TimFitz]

You're a sociopath. You just lie without any feeling of shame or guilt.
That's dangerous territory.
I refuse to argue with the mentally ill.
So you're now on my Ignore list, asshole.
Go **** yourself.

Funny, you’ve never refuted, rebutted, or disproved anything I have ever said.

Yo just call juvenile names.

I don’t have an ignore list.

 

[Dagoth-Ur]

It makes sense, since they're a death cult.

They can drink the Kool Aid and get on with it!

 

[Zincwarrior]

Funny, you’ve never refuted, rebutted, or disproved anything I have ever said.

Yo just call juvenile names.

I don’t have an ignore list.

How many Americans are more than three weeks away from dropping dead if their prescriptions are cut off?

 

[Dagoth-Ur]

Here are strategies to mitigate the risk of potential civil wars.

1. Inequality & grievance – Reducing material disparity tackles the “relative deprivation” driver that Fearon & Laitin identify as a strong predictor of civil war.
2. Polarisation & legitimacy – Inclusive politics and transparent governance restore faith in the state, counteracting the “loss of shared narrative” Betz warns about.
3. Identity‑based fault lines – Targeted reconciliation and anti‑hate policies prevent racism or ethnic bias from being weaponised by extremist groups.
4. State capacity – Hardened infrastructure and decentralised response limit the effectiveness of “system‑disruption” attacks that Betz flags as a catalyst for escalation.
5. Hybrid‑war tools – Cyber‑defences and media‑literacy blunt the modern “dirty‑war” tactics that can turn small‑scale unrest into a broader conflict.
6. Social cohesion – Strong civil‑society networks act as a buffer, providing non‑violent outlets for dissent and reducing the appeal of militant groups.
7. Early‑warning – Continuous monitoring catches the combination of stressors before they reach a tipping point, allowing pre‑emptive policy adjustments.

Do you know? Why a bullet or a bomb cannot destroy water?

So basically the left needs to stop doing what they are doing…Hell will freeze before this.

 

[Dagoth-Ur]

Funny, you’ve never refuted, rebutted, or disproved anything I have ever said.

Yo just call juvenile names.

I don’t have an ignore list.

That’s literally all you do.

 

[Zincwarrior]

So basically the left needs to stop doing what they are doing…Hell will freeze before this.

How do you find the left in your civil war fantasy?

 

[JLW]

It was also an act of terrorism by the left. What they were essentially saying was "You'd better not elect Trump again, or we'll burn this country to the ground."

Talk about a total lack of self-awareness! The only people who tried to “burn the country to the ground” were you MAGA insurrectionists who tried to overturn the 2020 election by violence. After Trump won in 2024 show me where a liberal mob stormed the Capital? You can’t can you.

I tell you what, when 2028 comes around and a Democrat win, it will be you MAGA who will once again falsely claim fraud and riot again. Mark my words!

 

[Bitterhook]

How many Americans are more than three weeks away from dropping dead if their prescriptions are cut off?

Tough question to answer seeing as according to the CDC 28% of the prescriptions written are never filled*.



*The report is in a pdf file, but you can look it up if necessary.

 

[Stryder50]

You can post as many pictures as you want.

None of them have a thing to do with overthrowing the govern,ent.

You supported that, not me.

If you knew history and the many cases of government overthrow you'd know that it most often starts on the fringe, in outlier locations and cities, before it moves towards a capital.

You are either grossly ignorant or intentional a liar.
I vote the latter.
Makes you useless scum and shyte in this discussion.

 

[JGalt]

Talk about a total lack of self-awareness! The only people who tried to “burn the country to the ground” were you MAGA insurrectionists who tried to overturn the 2020 election by violence. After Trump won in 2024 show me where a liberal mob stormed the Capital? You can’t can you.

I tell you what, when 2028 comes around and a Democrat win, it will be you MAGA who will once again falsely claim fraud and riot again. Mark my words!

The value of the arson, vandalism, and looting that took place at the Capitol on Jan 6 was estimated to be $1.5 million for physical damage. Now compare that to the $2 billion dollars of widespread arson, vandalism, and looting that took place in over 40 cities, during the 2020 riots.

A total of 5 people died during or shortly after the January 6 protest, while over eight times the number of people died during the 2000 riots.

We can't talk about "self-awareness", because apparently you have none to talk about.