Abdullah Gul said that Turkey was still trying to establish the exact circumstances of the incident. Regional security may hinge on the details that emerge, including whether the jet may have been brought down in Turkish territory. The incident comes at the tense moment when the Syrian regime has lost control in large parts of the countryside and blames Turkey for assisting rebels. Friday saw another spate of news about Syrian military defections, a mass killing and weapons smuggled into rebel enclaves from Turkey.
Turkish authorities said they lost contact with an F-4 Phantom around noon on Friday about 13 kilometres from the port of Latakia, but initially seemed reluctant to blame Syria for shooting down the jet. In the early hours of Saturday morning, however, the Syrian state news agency SANA released a bulletin in English, French and Arabic saying that security forces had fired on an unidentified aircraft over Syrian territory. An unidentified aerial target violated Syrian airspace, coming from the west at a very low altitude and at high speed over territorial waters, the agency said.
The Syrian government said its anti-aircraft artillery hit the plane about one kilometre offshore before it crashed farther out in the Mediterranean. The target turned out to be a Turkish military plane, the news agency said. Turkey held a two-hour meeting of top security officials on Friday night; a terse statement afterward said that Turkey understood its plane had been shot down by Syrian forces and promised, without elaborating, that Ankara will determinedly take necessary steps in response.
Earlier in the day, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the fate of the jet and crew remains unknown. He also emphasized that whatever brought down the aircraft may have happened some distance from the place where it eventually crashed, perhaps indicating that Turkey did not intend an aerial incursion. It would be very significant, and unprecedented, if Turkey intentionally violated Syrian airspace, said Elizabeth O'Bagy, an Arabic-speaking Syria analyst at the Washington-based U.S. Institute for the Study of War. I personally don't think that's likely, considering the stakes.
Syria has some of the best air defences in the Middle East. An analysis published by Sean O'Connor, an expert at the think tank Air Power Australia, shows that Syria has early-warning radar with visibility deep inside Turkey; this could have alerted Syrian officials about the plane's approach when it was roughly half the distance from its reported takeoff location, the Erhac military base in the eastern province of Malatya, to the spot off the coast where the plane disappeared.
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