Swing states

[Listening]

What I want to know is how Obama is going to react when someone informs him he's lost.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

What I want to know is how Obama is going to react when someone informs him he's lost.

what a juvenile and pathetic post.

and you wonder why people mock and make fun out of you while viewing you as a complete moron?

I bet you think the image offends? Well it does, but NOT in the way you intend. It offends in that it is so pathetic. It's like waking up and finding out the douchebagh on the other end of the web site is a demented and angry child posting as an adult.




my bad. it's time to stop posting with you

 

[Pasco08]

I think Florida will be tight there are actually more registered Dem's here then Republicans 08 Obama held Florida but it was tight i think he might take Florida again. Besides everyone here is really irritated with Scott.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

I think Florida will be tight there are actually more registered Dem's here then Republicans 08 Obama held Florida but it was tight i think he might take Florida again. Besides everyone here is really irritated with Scott.

It's a tough call. Florida is a sick state. No offense, but...

 

[Wroberson]

I've done my own National Polls. One uses minority voters against white voters. The other I used early voters versus Nov 6 voters. I've already posted my thread on that so I didn't post any numbers.

Colorado -Romney
Florida- Romney+
New Hampshire - Romney
North Carolina- Romney+
Pennsylvania- Romney
Virginia- Romney
Wisconsin- Obama-
Iowa- Obama-
Michigan- Obama
Nevada- Obama
Ohio- Obama*

*Ohio Poll:

Ohio Voters: 4,620,000 (based on 7.7 million registered votes and a 60% voter turnout)
Early Voter: 40% 1,848,000
Early Votes: 40% Romney 739,200
Early Votes: 60% Obama 1,108,800

Poll Number Votes: 2,772,000 (latest poll numbers less early voters)
48% Romney 1,330,560
48% Obama 1,330,560
4% Not Counted 110,880

Ohio vote totals:
Romney 2,069,760
Obama 2,439,360

Lawyers for Romney will sue Obama Campaign and USA over early
votes citing fraud with a request to check signatures versus the registry.


+ I'm taking the news reports of Florida and North Carolina as Romney states as true.
- I am also taking the news that Wisconsin and Iowa are Obama states as correct.
All the other states are guesses.

I've done national polling using their numbers and have not been able to put Romney ahead. The reason for this is I believe the poll numbers do not reflect or take into account early voting. If you read the poll information, they say "likely voters" and "registered voters". Only the exit polls use "early voters". I think this is the reason they get Romney leaning numbers while I get Obama leaning numbers. Some polls say they are conservative polls, and I still can't get Romney the lead.

 

[buckeye45_73]

If Obama doesn't win, it means Romney CHEATED!!!!!!!



.

Yep that's the default liberal response.......liberals wont understand you're mocking them.....

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

If Obama doesn't win, it means Romney CHEATED!!!!!!!



.

Yep that's the default liberal response.......liberals wont understand you're mocking them.....

okie dokey

 

[MarcATL]

I think Florida will be tight there are actually more registered Dem's here then Republicans 08 Obama held Florida but it was tight i think he might take Florida again. Besides everyone here is really irritated with Scott.

It's a tough call. Florida is a sick state. No offense, but...

Let's not forget the Trayvon Martin fiasco.

What those police did, or didn't do rather won't be forgotten.

That entire state needs a good cleaning out!!

 

[BluePhantom]

Well let's have a look at some polling data. Now this is just the way I am looking at things. If I was performing a full statistical analysis I would never do what I am about to do (which is toss a lot of polls over my shoulder) but here's how I see it. I will use the following guidelines (and I will be happy to demonstrate the truth of them if anyone really wants to split hairs over it).

a) I will ignore university, media or media affiliated polls. They are heavily biased toward Obama and are way out of line with the average of the professional pollsters. The only exceptions will be Suffolk and Quinnapiac as historically they are the exception to the rule but only when they poll alone.

b) I will ignore polls that were begun before the 23rd. This is because the final debate was on the 22nd so anything before that is only relevant for the purposes of establishing a trend.

c) I will ignore any pollster affiliated with either party for obvious reasons of bias.

d) I will consider that 60% of undecided voters break for the challenger which is roughly the historical average.

Now once you do all that you aren't left with a whole lot but more will come in over time. Let's have a look

Colorado - The only poll meeting the criteria is the Purple Strategies poll of the 25th that shows Obama +1 with 7% uncommitted to either. It's hard to make a good call here because we just don't have other qualifying polls to refute or confirm the data. If you look at the polls prior to the 23rd, you see WAA and Rasmussen average out a 2.5% Romney lead. I find it pretty hard to believe that Obama closed 3.5 points with all the crap that is going on so my gut is that Purple is probably off a bit in Obama's favor. Regardless, if you apply point d above it means Romney would squeak out a very close win. My gut is this one is going to Romney bringing his total to 200 EV vs. Obama's 201.

Florida - I can't believe anyone really thinks Obama will take Florida, but let's look at it anyhow. Among qualifying polls (Gravis and Rasmussen) Romney has a 1.5% lead with 2% undecided. The trends favor Romney. This is Romney's to lose. Romney 229, Obama 201.

Iowa - Gravis is the only qualifying poll and it's 50/46 Obama. Even if Romney got 75% of undecided voters he would still lose. Unless this is an outlier Obama probably takes Iowa. Romney 229, Obama 207.

Michigan - There are no qualifying polls but I don't buy that Michigan is close for a moment. This is Obama's. Romney 229, Obama 223

Nevada - Again Gravis is the only qualifying poll and they have Obama +1 with 1% undecided. My guess is that Obama will probably win Nevada although I don't have a high degree of confidence in that projection. Romney 229, Obama 229

New Hampshire - The only qualifying poll is Rasmussen's R+2 with 2% undecided. I am not terribly confident in this projection either but for now I will give it to Romney. Romney 233, Obama 229

North Carolina - Qualifying polls are Gravis and Rassmussen's average of R+7 with 2% undecided. See notes on Michigan. This is Romney's all the way. Romney 248, Obama 229

Ohio - The big tamale. Qualifying polls are ARG, Gravis, Rasmussen, and Purple that average out to O+1.25 with 4.75 undecided. Applying point d above suggests an absolute dead heat. What I will say is that the trend is toward Romney and the news right not is not good for Obama. My guess is Romney will just barely squeak this out but boy it's gonna be close. Romney 266, Obama 229

Pennsylvania - Rasmussen's O+5 is the only qualifying poll and that seems right about where PA has been for a while. Obama's state. Romney 266, Obama 249

Virginia - Gravis, Rasmussen, and Purple combine for R+0.67 with 4% undecided. Given point d above and the news and trends Romney should win this state in a close one. Romney 279, Obama 249

Wisconsin - Rassmussen is the only qualifying poll and they have it a tie with 2% undecided. Despite that I still can't call this state for Romney. Their history of being reliably blue is so long...I need to see other current polling that supports that data so for now I still have it in Obama's column. Romney 279, Obama 259

And that's the way I see it.

 

[RoadVirus]

My predictions

Colorado -Obama
Florida- Romney
Iowa- Obama
Michigan- Obama
Nevada- Romney
New Hampshire - Romney
North Carolina- Obama
Ohio- Romney
Pennsylvania- Romney
Virginia- Obama
Wisconsin- Romney

Va and NC are going Romney. I also think Colorado might go Romney, but Ohio and Penn.....maybe not.

 

[AmyNation]

It's not that close. Obama will win with 300-320 electoral votes.

If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.

Actually, they do.

The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.

There is no way Obama takes FL.

 

[candycorn]

If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.

Actually, they do.

The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.

There is no way Obama takes FL.

He won it 4 years ago, with PA, MI, OH, and WI. Yet somehow, you think he won't win any of them this time around--event though the Romney campaign has basically pulled out of PA and WI and has token presence now in WI.

Obama doesn't need FL to win. He needs it to get 300+ unless he sweeps all of the other swing states which won't happen either.

I think he'll win it. Momentum is back on his side and the longer it goes on, the more more the Governor is being exposed for his pander-a-thon.

 

[JimH52]

NC will be going to Romney.

hope Amynation's right on PA... if so, it don't matter what happens in the Buckeye.

Penn. Nev, and Wisconsin are going Obama...stay tuned

 

[AceRothstein]

Well let's have a look at some polling data. Now this is just the way I am looking at things. If I was performing a full statistical analysis I would never do what I am about to do (which is toss a lot of polls over my shoulder) but here's how I see it. I will use the following guidelines (and I will be happy to demonstrate the truth of them if anyone really wants to split hairs over it).

a) I will ignore university, media or media affiliated polls. They are heavily biased toward Obama and are way out of line with the average of the professional pollsters. The only exceptions will be Suffolk and Quinnapiac as historically they are the exception to the rule but only when they poll alone.

b) I will ignore polls that were begun before the 23rd. This is because the final debate was on the 22nd so anything before that is only relevant for the purposes of establishing a trend.

c) I will ignore any pollster affiliated with either party for obvious reasons of bias.

d) I will consider that 60% of undecided voters break for the challenger which is roughly the historical average.

Now once you do all that you aren't left with a whole lot but more will come in over time. Let's have a look

Colorado - The only poll meeting the criteria is the Purple Strategies poll of the 25th that shows Obama +1 with 7% uncommitted to either. It's hard to make a good call here because we just don't have other qualifying polls to refute or confirm the data. If you look at the polls prior to the 23rd, you see WAA and Rasmussen average out a 2.5% Romney lead. I find it pretty hard to believe that Obama closed 3.5 points with all the crap that is going on so my gut is that Purple is probably off a bit in Obama's favor. Regardless, if you apply point d above it means Romney would squeak out a very close win. My gut is this one is going to Romney bringing his total to 200 EV vs. Obama's 201.

Florida - I can't believe anyone really thinks Obama will take Florida, but let's look at it anyhow. Among qualifying polls (Gravis and Rasmussen) Romney has a 1.5% lead with 2% undecided. The trends favor Romney. This is Romney's to lose. Romney 229, Obama 201.

Iowa - Gravis is the only qualifying poll and it's 50/46 Obama. Even if Romney got 75% of undecided voters he would still lose. Unless this is an outlier Obama probably takes Iowa. Romney 229, Obama 207.

Michigan - There are no qualifying polls but I don't buy that Michigan is close for a moment. This is Obama's. Romney 229, Obama 223

Nevada - Again Gravis is the only qualifying poll and they have Obama +1 with 1% undecided. My guess is that Obama will probably win Nevada although I don't have a high degree of confidence in that projection. Romney 229, Obama 229

New Hampshire - The only qualifying poll is Rasmussen's R+2 with 2% undecided. I am not terribly confident in this projection either but for now I will give it to Romney. Romney 233, Obama 229

North Carolina - Qualifying polls are Gravis and Rassmussen's average of R+7 with 2% undecided. See notes on Michigan. This is Romney's all the way. Romney 248, Obama 229

Ohio - The big tamale. Qualifying polls are ARG, Gravis, Rasmussen, and Purple that average out to O+1.25 with 4.75 undecided. Applying point d above suggests an absolute dead heat. What I will say is that the trend is toward Romney and the news right not is not good for Obama. My guess is Romney will just barely squeak this out but boy it's gonna be close. Romney 266, Obama 229

Pennsylvania - Rasmussen's O+5 is the only qualifying poll and that seems right about where PA has been for a while. Obama's state. Romney 266, Obama 249

Virginia - Gravis, Rasmussen, and Purple combine for R+0.67 with 4% undecided. Given point d above and the news and trends Romney should win this state in a close one. Romney 279, Obama 249

Wisconsin - Rassmussen is the only qualifying poll and they have it a tie with 2% undecided. Despite that I still can't call this state for Romney. Their history of being reliably blue is so long...I need to see other current polling that supports that data so for now I still have it in Obama's column. Romney 279, Obama 259

And that's the way I see it.

I'd like to know what you think of Rasmussen and Gravis polls that are conducted in 1 day. I personally think they are more likely to be outliers.

 

[AmyNation]

Actually, they do.

The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.

There is no way Obama takes FL.

He won it 4 years ago, with PA, MI, OH, and WI. Yet somehow, you think he won't win any of them this time around--event though the Romney campaign has basically pulled out of PA and WI and has token presence now in WI.

Obama doesn't need FL to win. He needs it to get 300+ unless he sweeps all of the other swing states which won't happen either.

I think he'll win it. Momentum is back on his side and the longer it goes on, the more more the Governor is being exposed for his pander-a-thon.

PA and OH tipping Romney is based solely on living in the area, I could see those going Obama as well.

I haven't seen any major polls that suggest Obama is pulling ahead in FL and WI. Today is not 4 years ago. I think voter turn out will be low on both sides ofthe aisle, and between the walker recall and Obamacare, Obama has lost WI and FL.

 

[BluePhantom]

I'd like to know what you think of Rasmussen and Gravis polls that are conducted in 1 day. I personally think they are more likely to be outliers.

Polls should be conducted in the shortest time possible. We live in a fast information age and what people think one day can completely change with breaking news on the next. Take the Cincinnati Enquirer poll of Ohio taken from the 18th-23rd. It's totally useless. Debate #3 was on the 22nd, so some of the data is pre-debate and some of it is post-debate. A poll is a snapshot...you want the shortest time frame possible.

As far as outliers....ok an outlier is when you have one poll showing something completely different than all the other polls. Arguing that multiple polls are outliers is a contraditcion as each is supported by other polls.

 

[candycorn]

There is no way Obama takes FL.

He won it 4 years ago, with PA, MI, OH, and WI. Yet somehow, you think he won't win any of them this time around--event though the Romney campaign has basically pulled out of PA and WI and has token presence now in WI.

Obama doesn't need FL to win. He needs it to get 300+ unless he sweeps all of the other swing states which won't happen either.

I think he'll win it. Momentum is back on his side and the longer it goes on, the more more the Governor is being exposed for his pander-a-thon.

PA and OH tipping Romney is based solely on living in the area, I could see those going Obama as well.

I haven't seen any major polls that suggest Obama is pulling ahead in FL and WI. Today is not 4 years ago. I think voter turn out will be low on both sides ofthe aisle, and between the walker recall and Obamacare, Obama has lost WI and FL.

Florida I'll give you; it's a tough road to hoe for the Obama Campaign. I'm confident that there is undersampling of Democrats without home phones in Florida. I'm also confident that Romney/Ryan's medicare overhaul will be their undoing in Florida.

As for Wisconsin, you should take an interest in it:

Wisconsin '12 Presidential General Election Poll - Thursday, October 25, 2012 - 2012 Election - POLITICO.com

Even Rasmussen has Obama ahead.

Keep in mind, Politico isn't polling...it's showing polls from several different sources. Take a look.

Just for the record...

Here is PA:

Pennsylvania '12 Presidential General Election Poll - Saturday, October 27, 2012 - 2012 Election - POLITICO.com

Romney isn't in shouting distance of Obama there.

Do I need to show you Michigan? Oh what the hell..

Michigan '12 Presidential General Election Poll - Wednesday, October 17, 2012 - 2012 Election - POLITICO.com


If you're not aware of these multiple polls covering 3 states ...I don't know what to tell you.


=============
Lets look at Florida:

Florida '12 Presidential General Election Poll - Monday, October 29, 2012 - 2012 Election - POLITICO.com

Pretty evenly split although Romney is ahead in recent polling more often than not.

Obama gots it in the bag.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.

Actually, they do.

The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.

There is no way Obama takes FL.

Agreed.

But Obama doesn’t need Florida.

Or North Carolina

Or Virginia.

Or Colorado

Or even New Hampshire

He needs only Ohio – where he’s ahead; and Iowa – where he’s ahead.

Or Ohio and Nevada, the latter where he’s ahead as well.

The problem for Romney has always been EC math: just California, Illinois, and New York alone get the president a third of the way there. It gives Obama more routes to 270, more states he doesn’t need or can lose.

Romney simply doesn’t have that luxury; even if Romney wins all the states he’s supposed to win, and some he isn’t, he still doesn’t get to 270.

 

[Jarlaxle]

On the radio today, I heard a discussion that, astoundingly, Pennsylvania is in play; as of Saturday, polls of likely voters had Obama ahead, but were within the margin of error. Both sides are putting out big bucks for campaigning in PA this week.

Barack's trashing of the coal industry might end up costing him the election.

 

[AceRothstein]

I'd like to know what you think of Rasmussen and Gravis polls that are conducted in 1 day. I personally think they are more likely to be outliers.

Polls should be conducted in the shortest time possible. We live in a fast information age and what people think one day can completely change with breaking news on the next. Take the Cincinnati Enquirer poll of Ohio taken from the 18th-23rd. It's totally useless. Debate #3 was on the 22nd, so some of the data is pre-debate and some of it is post-debate. A poll is a snapshot...you want the shortest time frame possible.

As far as outliers....ok an outlier is when you have one poll showing something completely different than all the other polls. Arguing that multiple polls are outliers is a contraditcion as each is supported by other polls.

Wouldn't a one day poll only be useful if the pollster is releasing that poll every few days? It seems kind of silly to stand by a poll taken over one day as opposed to two or three, you are going to have as extreme of swings as you are going to have with one day polls.

The reason I asked about Gravis is it consistently seems to be an outlier, both ways but more frequently in Romney's favor.