Swing states

[C_Clayton_Jones]

My predictions

Colorado -Obama
Florida- Romney
Iowa- Obama
Michigan- [Romney]
Nevada- Romney
New Hampshire - Romney
North Carolina- Obama
Ohio- Romney
Pennsylvania- Romney
Virginia- Obama
Wisconsin- Romney

‘Gut feeling’ or do you have any polling data to back that up?

Based on polling data and analysis:

Florida- Romney
Iowa- Obama
Michigan- Obama
Nevada- Obama
North Carolina- Romney
Ohio- Obama
Pennsylvania- Obama
Wisconsin- Obama.

Romney will win the following:

Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire

Obama: 277
Romney: 261

 

[AmyNation]

Gut feeling.

I'm from Ohio, and it feels like the Obama tide has turned. I think all polls will start to show Romney gaining in Ohio/pa/MI and election night will see him eek by and win them.

 

[MarcATL]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

 

[candycorn]

I think PA, Michigan and Ohio will all fall in step together. If one goes red so will the others.

You have Obama winning in MI, and Romney winning in PA and OH.

I doubt Romney will win MI or PA and Ohio is looking very good for our President.

Oops, my mistake. I meant to give MI to Romney.

No way.

I don't think it's a canard to feel that a candidate doesn't campaign where they don't think they have a chance or don't need to campaign. The Campaign Explorer at cnn.com shows when candidates were last in each state.

Florida; 10/25 for Obama, 10/27 for Gov. Romney
Ohio; 10/25 for Obama, 10/26 for Gov. Romney
Colorado; 10/24 for Obama, 10/23 for Gov. Romney
Iowa; 10/24 Obama, 10/26 for Gov. Romney
Nevada, 10/25 for Obama, 10/24 for Governor Romney
and finally
Virginia; 10/25 for Obama, 10/17 for Gov. Romney
These are the swing states because you can tell the fervor with which both men are visiting the states.

Now lets look at the other states:

Wisconsin; 10/4 for Obama, 8/12 for Romney.
Pennsylvania; 7/6 for Obama, 9/28 for Gov. Romney
Michigan; 4/18 for Obama, 8/24 for Gov. Romney
North Carolina; 9/6 for Obama, 10/11 for Gov. Romney

It's not an exact science since some of the visits may be for fundraising and not exactly campaigning. The second group are not swing states though; they were decided one way or the other already.

Michigan is Obama's.

Pennsylvania is Obama's.

Wisconsin is Obama's but it's close because of Ryan.

North Carolina is Romney's

It's further emphasized when you look at the explorer and check out how much each campaign has spent in these states; Romney hasn't spent a dime in MI or PA since September. They are barely spending anything in WI.

 

[blackhawk]

We will all know for sure sure in just over a week this election is to close for anyone to be sure about it Obama could squeak out a narrow win but so could Romney.

 

[blackhawk]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

How will a left wing radical like you react if Obama loses scream racism and cry the election was stolen ?

 

[AmyNation]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

Was that an "in general" whine, or directed at me?

 

[g5000]

If Romney doesn't win, it means Obama CHEATED!!!!!!!




.

 

[MarcATL]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

Was that an "in general" whine, or directed at me?

lol

How will you react when Obama wins Amy?

 

[Listening]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

We've already put a Tea Party house in place to rebuff him.

Now, if we don't win the senate out and out....it will be more Tea party.....Cruz, Murdouch, and even (possibly) Akin.....Berg, Fischer...etc.

I'm not worried at all.

 

[g5000]

If Obama doesn't win, it means Romney CHEATED!!!!!!!



.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Gut feeling.

I'm from Ohio, and it feels like the Obama tide has turned. I think all polls will start to show Romney gaining in Ohio/pa/MI and election night will see him eek by and win them.

really?

Cassidy on Ohio - "Sources tell me that the two campaigns’ internal polling also have Obama ahead, with Romney’s vote seemingly stalled in the mid-to-high forties." -

Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker

 

[blackhawk]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

Was that an "in general" whine, or directed at me?

I would say in general based on his past post he gives anyone who is not as far left as he is the RW radical label.

 

[AmyNation]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

Was that an "in general" whine, or directed at me?

lol

How will you react when Obama wins Amy?

I will shrug, then get on here and laugh at KG, and Misty, and LGS and a few of the other diehards as they melt down.

Now ask me how i'll react when Romney wins

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

many will pout. Some always go berserk and others still go into denial more or more factually, stay in denial mode.

a few people here promised to leave USMB. I hope they don't. the entertainment value alone of having them here is....


priceless

 

[AmyNation]

Gut feeling.

I'm from Ohio, and it feels like the Obama tide has turned. I think all polls will start to show Romney gaining in Ohio/pa/MI and election night will see him eek by and win them.

really?

Cassidy on Ohio - "Sources tell me that the two campaigns’ internal polling also have Obama ahead, with Romney’s vote seemingly stalled in the mid-to-high forties." -

Read more Cassidy's Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio? : The New Yorker

I suppose we'll see

 

[candycorn]

We will all know for sure sure in just over a week this election is to close for anyone to be sure about it Obama could squeak out a narrow win but so could Romney.

It's not that close. Obama will win with 300-320 electoral votes.

 

[MarcATL]

How will you RW radicals react when Obama wins handily...again?

We've already put a Tea Party house in place to rebuff him.

Now, if we don't win the senate out and out....it will be more Tea party.....Cruz, Murdouch, and even (possibly) Akin.....Berg, Fischer...etc.

I'm not worried at all.

lol...OK.

 

[blackhawk]

We will all know for sure sure in just over a week this election is to close for anyone to be sure about it Obama could squeak out a narrow win but so could Romney.

It's not that close. Obama will win with 300-320 electoral votes.

If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.

 

[candycorn]

We will all know for sure sure in just over a week this election is to close for anyone to be sure about it Obama could squeak out a narrow win but so could Romney.

It's not that close. Obama will win with 300-320 electoral votes.

If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.

Actually, they do.

The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.