I think PA, Michigan and Ohio will all fall in step together. If one goes red so will the others.
You have Obama winning in MI, and Romney winning in PA and OH.
I doubt Romney will win MI or PA and Ohio is looking very good for our President.
Oops, my mistake. I meant to give MI to Romney.
No way.
I don't think it's a canard to feel that a candidate doesn't campaign where they don't think they have a chance or don't need to campaign. The Campaign Explorer at cnn.com shows when candidates were last in each state.
Florida; 10/25 for Obama, 10/27 for Gov. Romney
Ohio; 10/25 for Obama, 10/26 for Gov. Romney
Colorado; 10/24 for Obama, 10/23 for Gov. Romney
Iowa; 10/24 Obama, 10/26 for Gov. Romney
Nevada, 10/25 for Obama, 10/24 for Governor Romney
and finally
Virginia; 10/25 for Obama, 10/17 for Gov. Romney
These are the swing states because you can tell the fervor with which both men are visiting the states.
Now lets look at the other states:
Wisconsin; 10/4 for Obama,
8/12 for Romney.
Pennsylvania; 7/6 for Obama,
9/28 for Gov. Romney
Michigan; 4/18 for Obama,
8/24 for Gov. Romney
North Carolina; 9/6 for Obama,
10/11 for Gov. Romney
It's not an exact science since some of the visits may be for fundraising and not exactly campaigning. The second group are not swing states though; they were decided one way or the other already.
Michigan is Obama's.
Pennsylvania is Obama's.
Wisconsin is Obama's but it's close because of Ryan.
North Carolina is Romney's
It's further emphasized when you look at the explorer and check out how much each campaign has spent in these states; Romney hasn't spent a dime in MI or PA since September. They are barely spending anything in WI.
