Stock market will crash in 60 days...

[Harpy Eagle]

You just said, based upon data being used, the system is flawed and politically biased.

I did not say anything about political bias.

The people creating the reports have no skin in the game, they have no reason to fudge the numbers in one direction or the other.

But yes it is flawed because of the demand for monthly numbers very early each month. That means that the data that can be used is limited.

But it is the same people using the same process no matter who is sitting in the White House.

 

[Delldude]

I did not say anything about political bias.

I did.

But yes it is flawed because of the demand for monthly numbers very early each month.

But with all the instantaneous data available at our finger tips, they just can't seem to ever get it right.

But it is the same people using the same process no matter who is sitting in the White House.

And who is that?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

But with all the instantaneous data available at our finger tips, they just can't seem to ever get it right.

Instantaneous data is not always good data. It is the need to have this report monthly, very early each month, that leads to not all the data being available.

We do the same thing with the GDP report, it is always adjusted twice as more data is collected. But yet people would lose their minds if the report did not come out.

And who is that?

Civil servants working for the DOL.

 

[Delldude]

Instantaneous data is not always good data. It is the need to have this report monthly, very early each month, that leads to not all the data being available.

We have the technology, quit squirming.

Civil servants working for the DOL.

Interesting......and how does the Secretary of Labor get their position?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

We have the technology, quit squirming.

The technology does not magically make the data appear. The statisticians still have to wait on those that provide the data to do so.

What is it you do for a living?

Interesting......and how does the Secretary of Labor get their position?

They are of course appointed by the POTUS.

I know several Stats that work for the USDA and when a Crop report is published the Sec of Ag has no control over its content. The Sec of Ag is given a copy of the Crop report 1 hour before it is released to the press but cannot, by law, change the content.

I would be willing to be the Jobs report is the same way.

 

[Delldude]

The technology does not magically make the data appear.

So how is it the stock market can make daily decisions?

What is it you do for a living?

Rightwuinger got me on as a USMB paid message board poster. I love my job.

The statisticians still have to wait on those that provide the data to do so.

What about the best thing since sliced bread, AI?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

So how is it the stock market can make daily decisions?

The stock market is based upon speculation.

What about the best thing since sliced bread, AI?

AI is useful in helping to process the data, but it cannot make data appear out of thin air. AI is still rather limited in the analyst world to just doing the grunt work.

 

[Delldude]

The stock market is based upon speculation.

Based upon instantaneous available data.

AI is still rather limited in the analyst world to just doing the grunt work.

How is AI used in analytics?

AI models can identify patterns, correlations, anomalies, and trends in the data. A new wave of generative BI tools is revolutionizing this space. Instead of having a data analyst work on manual reporting for days or weeks, you can now get an answer to your business questions in minutes.Jul 17, 2024

Using AI for Data Analysis: The Ultimate Guide (2024) | Luzmo

What is AI data analysis, and why should you do it? Explore the best AI tools for data analysis and how to use them in each stage of the data analytics process.

www.luzmo.com

AI is useful in helping to process the data, but it cannot make data appear out of thin air.

AI evaluates available data.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Based upon instantaneous available data.

Which often turns out to be wrong, thus people lose money.

How is AI used in analytics?

AI models can identify patterns, correlations, anomalies, and trends in the data. A new wave of generative BI tools is revolutionizing this space. Instead of having a data analyst work on manual reporting for days or weeks, you can now get an answer to your business questions in minutes.Jul 17, 2024

Yes, the grunt work. That is what I just said.

 

[Delldude]

Which often turns out to be wrong, thus people lose money.

People do lose money but there are some that are quite adept and make boatloads of money. Maybe they are more savvy at analytics.

Yes, the grunt work. That is what I just said.

That's what AI was made for..............and to put humans out of work.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

That's what AI was made for..............and to put humans out of work.

only if your only job is grunt work.

For us it just allows us to spend more time understanding what the data means instead of cleaning and working it

 

[Delldude]

only if your only job is grunt work.

For us it just allows us to spend more time understanding what the data means instead of cleaning and working it

Enjoy it until there's a knock at your door.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Enjoy it until there's a knock at your door.

I will be long retired before that happens.

 

[Delldude]

I will be long retired before that happens.

It's growing rather quickly. Even freaking out congress and the creators.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

It's growing rather quickly. Even freaking out congress and the creators.

Yes, I know, we use it a lot. That is why I am not worried, it is good at grunt work, not good at thinking that requires intuition and nuisance

 

[Harpy Eagle]

...says best selling author Larry McDonald.

"They're playing catch up, and while they were doing quantitative easing in 2021, inflation started to rage and now they're trying to catch up," The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald said Wednesday on "Mornings with Maria."

"Our 21 Lehman systemic risk indicators that look at equity and credit point to one of the highest probabilities of a crash in the stock market looking out 60 days," McDonald, who is also known for writing a best-selling book on the Lehman Brothers collapse, cautioned.

Stock market will crash in 60 days, best-selling author on Lehman collapse warns

Market risk indicators are signaling one of the highest probabilities of a crash in the next 60 days. The Bear Traps report founder Larry McDonald advises on how to allocate your capital.

www.foxbusiness.com

Don't have anything to add to that...not a stock expert. It just feels very very Black Monday-esque.

The title of that article is a little misleading...McDonald actually says "best chance" if the S&P earning fail to meet expectations.

I wasn't around in 1929...but I was in 1987.

You experts can discuss the ins and outs of the article...I'm just going to read the replies.

Well, most of the replies.

Not the replies from those who know less than I do who will unfailingly post that everything is fine because hope and fairy dust and a potato in the White House.

Why will you not come back to your thread?

Does this look like a crash...

 

[Missourian]

Why will you not come back to your thread?

Does this look like a crash...

View attachment 1000092

I you're mad that I called you an asshole for defending child abuse, just be a man and say so, Low T liberal.

You're an asshole for defending child abuse...

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I you're mad that I called you an asshole for defending child abuse, just be a man and say so, Low T liberal.

You're an asshole for defending child abuse...

I could care less what someone that mocks a special needs kid calls me.

But I would like you to own your failed prediction.

Not that you will, but I am a tad impressed you had to balls to come back to this thread after all this time

 

[Delldude]

Yes, I know, we use it a lot. That is why I am not worried, it is good at grunt work, not good at thinking that requires intuition and nuisance

You're missing the point. It is growing, almost beyond comprehension. Might beat you to your SSA.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

You're missing the point. It is growing, almost beyond comprehension. Might beat you to your SSA.

It really is not, again I work with it, I know its limitations.

It will be a while till Skynet takes over!