Sorry Trumpers ... This Measure Says Growth Is Slower Under Trump Than Obama

[Harpy Eagle]

From the third link you seem to like so much, remember that article only considers USMCA and didn't include the effects of the China deal.

While the 0.35 percent growth to GDP and 0.12 percent increase in employment in the first six years after implementation is relatively modest growth, White House officials were more concerned with the actual release of the study, which was a necessary step before Congress can act.

.

I liked it because it was not from the Trump administration. I am not sure about you, but I do not put much stock in what any administration tells me, they all tend to elaborate..to put it politely.

As for the China deal, all we have heard about Phase 1 is that it basically resets things to 18 months ago. Trump pulls back some tariffs and China goes back to buy more Ag products. Great news for me, but not sure it will help the economy much.

Most American financial rags are pro-Globalist, including the WSJ.
Trump isn't.
You haven't figured this out, dummy!

He was pretty much a Globalist till he choose to run for POTUS as a Repub and not a Dem, then he found the song of the siren that he knew would get him the nomination.

But he got it.....and has successfully run with it!

He has been better than the last two, I will give you that much

 

[OKTexas]

IF Trump gets another 4 years there will be a recession during the Trump era. The only question is how deep.

Considering Trump's first three years of padding an already growing and healthy economy an additional $3 trillion dollars, with trillion dollar annual deficits into the foreseeable future,when a recession hits, the US will be up shit creek.
Of course our economy is continuing the same projectile Trump inherited, but then he threw trillions of dollars into the economy. Obama had four straight years of sub trillion deficits and the economy grew.
So, Obama grew the economy while cutting deficits, Trump continued the growth while almost doubling the deficits. That approach has a short term effect. But in long term, annual trillion dollar deficits will have along term effect and it isn't going to be good, at all.

Yet maobama added more than 9 trillion to the national debt during his term, go figure.

.

Well,,,,,,,from Forbes.
Trump’s Budget Deficits Could Almost Double Obama’s

That's one guys opinion, we'll see if it holds water in an expanding economy.

.

How much longer do you suspect it will continue to expand given that we have blown past the record for expansion this past summer?

When the last recession hit our deficit tripled in a year, do you think we can absorb 3.5 trillion dollar deficit in a year?

Name one credible economist that is predicting a downturn comparable to 2009.

.

 

[B. Kidd]

From the third link you seem to like so much, remember that article only considers USMCA and didn't include the effects of the China deal.

While the 0.35 percent growth to GDP and 0.12 percent increase in employment in the first six years after implementation is relatively modest growth, White House officials were more concerned with the actual release of the study, which was a necessary step before Congress can act.

.

I liked it because it was not from the Trump administration. I am not sure about you, but I do not put much stock in what any administration tells me, they all tend to elaborate..to put it politely.

As for the China deal, all we have heard about Phase 1 is that it basically resets things to 18 months ago. Trump pulls back some tariffs and China goes back to buy more Ag products. Great news for me, but not sure it will help the economy much.

Most American financial rags are pro-Globalist, including the WSJ.
Trump isn't.
You haven't figured this out, dummy!

He was pretty much a Globalist till he choose to run for POTUS as a Repub and not a Dem, then he found the song of the siren that he knew would get him the nomination.

But he got it.....and has successfully run with it!

He has been better than the last two, I will give you that much

I take back the label 'dummy', for now.
Can I do that?

 

[ph3iron]

He WILL have another 4 years, he will also be the first president in decades to have ZERO recession in the first term. Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Nixon all had recessions in their first term.

Interesting that you give blame for a recession to a president even if it started before they were elected.

But that aside, Trump, if he gets another 4 years, will have a recession, will you give him the blame for it?

You're asking a person who blames Obama for the bush boy Great Recession to put blame for any recession trump causes on trump?

Bullshit, it was the commies in congress that ignored the warnings about the housing bubble. Remember when buttfuck Barney said Freddie and Fanny were solid, just before the crash and refused to address the systemic problems?

.

Always the commies from the state with the dumbest education.
It was our money boys who caused it.
Always the money. Always repubs
But buttfuck?
Dead giveaway for zero college?
Is this how you talk to your kids?

 

[Mike473]

Fed rate pegged to zero for years. Cash for clunkers. QE. Trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployment benefits extended out to 2 years. Payroll tax cut. Banks on bailout programs. I would hope Obama could get some growth with all that support.

Now, Obama inherited a mess. But, to compare the economy now, especially with the Obama's first term is crazy. It is MUCH better today.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Fed rate pegged to zero for years. Cash for clunkers. QE. Trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployment benefits extended out to 2 years. Payroll tax cut. Banks on bailout programs. I would hope Obama could get some growth with all that support.

Now, Obama inherited a mess. But, to compare the economy now, especially with the Obama's first term is crazy. It is MUCH better today.

Yes, it so much better than Obama’s first term because it had been getting better for 5 year prior to the election.

 

[OKTexas]

From the third link you seem to like so much, remember that article only considers USMCA and didn't include the effects of the China deal.

While the 0.35 percent growth to GDP and 0.12 percent increase in employment in the first six years after implementation is relatively modest growth, White House officials were more concerned with the actual release of the study, which was a necessary step before Congress can act.

.

I liked it because it was not from the Trump administration. I am not sure about you, but I do not put much stock in what any administration tells me, they all tend to elaborate..to put it politely.

As for the China deal, all we have heard about Phase 1 is that it basically resets things to 18 months ago. Trump pulls back some tariffs and China goes back to buy more Ag products. Great news for me, but not sure it will help the economy much.

They predicted .35% due to just the USMCA, you don't think the China deal could add another .15% which would equal the admins minimum predictions?

.

 

[kiwiman127]

The Last Refuge

Forced by Reality – The Washington Post Cancels the Recession…

Excerpt:

In July and August the U.S. was heading into a recession according to the media. The Washington Post was at the forefront of the recession narrative with multiple articles predicting certain doom for the U.S. economy…. except there was a problem. All of the economic data would not support their predictions. Things only got better.

The media gnashed their horrible teeth and stomped their horrible feet; alas Main Street continued to get stronger; wages higher, unemployment lower, and more middle-class Americans gaining strength and financial footing. The media shouted at trees hoping and praying their predictions would soon evidence and the economy would throw itself into reverse. Foiled again, it just never happened. Democrats have permanent frowns.

Today the Washington Post admits defeat, informs their audience that cheering for economic collapse is futile, and states, reluctantly, the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession:

LINK

==============

No recession during the Trump era.

IF Trump gets another 4 years there will be a recession during the Trump era. The only question is how deep.

Considering Trump's first three years of padding an already growing and healthy economy an additional $3 trillion dollars, with trillion dollar annual deficits into the foreseeable future,when a recession hits, the US will be up shit creek.
Of course our economy is continuing the same projectile Trump inherited, but then he threw trillions of dollars into the economy. Obama had four straight years of sub trillion deficits and the economy grew.
So, Obama grew the economy while cutting deficits, Trump continued the growth while almost doubling the deficits. That approach has a short term effect. But in long term, annual trillion dollar deficits will have along term effect and it isn't going to be good, at all.

Yet maobama added more than 9 trillion to the national debt during his term, go figure.

.

Well,,,,,,,from Forbes.
Trump’s Budget Deficits Could Almost Double Obama’s

That's one guys opinion, we'll see if it holds water in an expanding economy.

.

OK, what's your excuse going to be regarding Trump's own OMB?
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-05/55151-budget_update_0.pdf
You do comprehend that future deficits projections are based onTrump's future deficits are calculated on budget commitments already in stone, like his tax cuts or interest on the National Debt and the interest on his own deficits for example.
Also this expended economy is just continuing the economic trajectory established prior Trump.
And Trump's expanding economy is the result of $3 trillion dollars and almost equal Obama's three years deficits invested to righting the economy which started the long term expanding economy. (which you guys cried about)
Never, has any president ever doubled the deficits during long term economic expansion. Never.
Where would the economy be, without Trump's his huge deficits? Instead of using a proven course, he used trillions of other people's money and the recovery pattern, never changed. That's a fact.

 

[Mike473]

Fed rate pegged to zero for years. Cash for clunkers. QE. Trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployment benefits extended out to 2 years. Payroll tax cut. Banks on bailout programs. I would hope Obama could get some growth with all that support.

Now, Obama inherited a mess. But, to compare the economy now, especially with the Obama's first term is crazy. It is MUCH better today.

Yes, it so much better than Obama’s first term because it had been getting better for 5 year prior to the election.

Trump has done a great job. Reconcile that in whatever way you feel comfortable with. This economy is going to carry him to an easy win next year.

 

[ph3iron]

Of course
Looked at graphs?
Economy has been steadily growing for 20 years.
Blip for recession
Look at the graphs for gods sake

 

[ph3iron]

Fed rate pegged to zero for years. Cash for clunkers. QE. Trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployment benefits extended out to 2 years. Payroll tax cut. Banks on bailout programs. I would hope Obama could get some growth with all that support.

Now, Obama inherited a mess. But, to compare the economy now, especially with the Obama's first term is crazy. It is MUCH better today.

Yes, it so much better than Obama’s first term because it had been getting better for 5 year prior to the election.

Trump has done a great job. Reconcile that in whatever way you feel comfortable with. This economy is going to carry him to an easy win next year.

Same as the 2018?
Look at the graphs for gods sake.
The con (no taxes) has conned the biggest in history, all white zero college rubes.
Boy I look forward to raping my wife again (ok according the the cons lawyer)

 

[OKTexas]

Nope, just pointing out the commie has no room to talk. We'll never get the debt under control until congress pulls it's head out and starts to address entitlements. That applies to both parties.

.

That will never happen till the voters hold them accountable...which will never happen because the powers that be were smart enough to make the two sides hate each other

I tend to agree to a point, it's not just the politicians, the courts have allowed the politicians to expand the federal government way beyond what the founders established. Of course the courts expanded their own power in the process.

.

 

[kiwiman127]

Fed rate pegged to zero for years. Cash for clunkers. QE. Trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployment benefits extended out to 2 years. Payroll tax cut. Banks on bailout programs. I would hope Obama could get some growth with all that support.

Now, Obama inherited a mess. But, to compare the economy now, especially with the Obama's first term is crazy. It is MUCH better today.

When you have a long term expansion that's now 9 years old, of course it's better now.
All economist use the unemployment rate to measure the economy.
Notice the long term trajectory. There hasn't been any change since Trump took office.

 

[Mike473]

Fed rate pegged to zero for years. Cash for clunkers. QE. Trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployment benefits extended out to 2 years. Payroll tax cut. Banks on bailout programs. I would hope Obama could get some growth with all that support.

Now, Obama inherited a mess. But, to compare the economy now, especially with the Obama's first term is crazy. It is MUCH better today.

Yes, it so much better than Obama’s first term because it had been getting better for 5 year prior to the election.

Trump has done a great job. Reconcile that in whatever way you feel comfortable with. This economy is going to carry him to an easy win next year.

Same as the 2018?
Look at the graphs for gods sake.
The con (no taxes) has conned the biggest in history, all white zero college rubes.
Boy I look forward to raping my wife again (ok according the the cons lawyer)

"Mueller Time" is over my friend. The Dems can't hang their hat on that farce anymore.

We can look at some other charts and graphs as well. How about Obama and Clinton's first mid terms results compared to Trump?

Obama - Lost 63 seats in the house and 6 seats in the Senate. Obama went on to a landslide win when he was on the ticket in 2012.

Clinton - Lost 54 seats in the house and 8 seats in the Senate. Clinton went on to a landslide win when he was on the ticket.

Now, it looks to me like Trump did quite a bit better in his first mid term than either of those two managed. I predict the economy will carry Trump to a similar result when he again is on the ticket next year.

 

[Cosmos]

Sorry to burst the cloud over your mind Trumpers. Your delusions are precious to you but I have to prick that orange bubble that has you howling with joy at Trump rallies as lies fall faster from Trump's mouth than Autumn leaves.

Sorry darlings, "According to BEA data, GDI has grown at a 2.3% annualized pace since Trump took office, vs. 2.4% during Obama’s two terms."

Apologies for pricking your orange bubble. Donald Trump is bloating the economy with tax cuts for the rich and burgeoning debt but still can't beat Obama.

Donald Trump has rendered the economy obese and debt-ridden with debt rising faster at >2 x GDP growth.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This Measure Says Growth Is Slower Under Trump Than Obama

Gross domestic income should in theory track GDP, but it tells a slightly different story.

By
Justin Fox
September 23, 2019, 11:00 PM GMT+7

ILLUSTRATION: GEORGE WYLESOL FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK

The economy has been perhaps the brightest spot of Donald Trump’s unconventional presidency. A recession would tarnish this, which is presumably why he gets so worked up about perceived missteps by the Federal Reserve. But by one measure, economic growth is already slower during the Trump era than during Barack Obama’s eight years as president.
That measure is gross domestic income. GDI is part of the same quarterly national economic accounting by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis that gives us gross domestic product but is released a month later. The two numbers should, in theory, be identical, but they never quite are because of the vagaries of real-world data. In a 2010 paper, economist Jeremy Nalewaik—then at the Fed, now at Morgan Stanley—made the case that “GDI better reflects the business cycle fluctuations in true output growth.”

publishing the average of GDP and GDI. Also, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia now calculates a statistically smoothed melding of GDP and GDI, devised in part by Nalewaik, that it calls GDPplus. The presidential growth rates admittedly depend a lot on the starting quarter one chooses, especially for Obama, who took office amid the worst recession in 75 years. Also, while growth rates have been about the same or only moderately higher under Trump, people aren’t wrong to think the economy is better. More are sharing in growth now because the long expansion has brought workers off the sidelines.

• Timing Is Everything

If you measure from the quarter before they took office, Trump leads in GDI growth, 2.5% to 2.1%. Measure from the last quarter of the first year in office (because it takes time for policies to have an effect), and it’s Trump 2.5% to Obama 2.4%.



• Smooth Calculator
According to BEA data, GDI has grown at a 2.3% annualized pace since Trump took office, vs. 2.4% during Obama’s two terms.

• On the Job
Payroll employment has grown at a 1.5%annual pace during Trump’s time in office, faster than the 1% during Obama’s entire presidency but slower than the 1.9% of Obama’s second term.
Real annualized growth rate from first quarter of administration

Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis

• But Wait, It Gets Better
Of Americans age 25-54, 80% had jobs in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the highest prime-age employment rate in more than a decade and perhaps a better measure of economic health than either GDP or GDI growth.

Yeah, stupid. We're like 10 years past the recovery from the Democrat-induced financial crisis. So it's to be expected. We're doing quite well. Far better than it would be if the Communists you vote for had taken office.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Name one credible economist that is predicting a downturn comparable to 2009.

.

I have not seen anyone predict anything about the severity.

There are two things that give me a reason to think it will...first basically none of the instability that led to the last one have been fixed.
This is a great study that looks back over the last decade and talks about what we should have done that we did not.

A Recovery Squandered - U.S. Competitiveness - Harvard Business School It is not anti-Trump or anything like that as it covers an entire decade.


And also, I believe that dropping interest rates does indeed help to stimulate the economy. A view that Trump and I share.

Prior to the previous recession the rate stood about about 5 1/4. Right now it is less than a third of that as we have been lowering it to keep the expansion going. So, when a recession does hit there is little room for dropping to try and help things along. That removes one of the better tools.

I view it like someone that is drinking red bulls to stay awake longer...sooner or later the crash is worse than if they just went to sleep when they should have.

 

[OKTexas]

He WILL have another 4 years, he will also be the first president in decades to have ZERO recession in the first term. Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Nixon all had recessions in their first term.

Interesting that you give blame for a recession to a president even if it started before they were elected.

But that aside, Trump, if he gets another 4 years, will have a recession, will you give him the blame for it?

You're asking a person who blames Obama for the bush boy Great Recession to put blame for any recession trump causes on trump?

Bullshit, it was the commies in congress that ignored the warnings about the housing bubble. Remember when buttfuck Barney said Freddie and Fanny were solid, just before the crash and refused to address the systemic problems?

.

Always the commies from the state with the dumbest education.
It was our money boys who caused it.
Always the money. Always repubs
But buttfuck?
Dead giveaway for zero college?
Is this how you talk to your kids?

Poor thing, are you triggered? I'll tell ya what commie, I have a PHD in BS detection and you're full of it.

Now lets look at facts. The Bush administration started warning about Freddy and Fanny in 2001, they increased their warnings in 2003. Watch this video and try to cure your ignorance.



.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Fed rate pegged to zero for years. Cash for clunkers. QE. Trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployment benefits extended out to 2 years. Payroll tax cut. Banks on bailout programs. I would hope Obama could get some growth with all that support.

Now, Obama inherited a mess. But, to compare the economy now, especially with the Obama's first term is crazy. It is MUCH better today.

Yes, it so much better than Obama’s first term because it had been getting better for 5 year prior to the election.

Trump has done a great job. Reconcile that in whatever way you feel comfortable with. This economy is going to carry him to an easy win next year.

Trump has been marginally better than Obama. He is like Johnny Manziel as compared to Ryan Leaf

 

[OKTexas]

IF Trump gets another 4 years there will be a recession during the Trump era. The only question is how deep.

Considering Trump's first three years of padding an already growing and healthy economy an additional $3 trillion dollars, with trillion dollar annual deficits into the foreseeable future,when a recession hits, the US will be up shit creek.
Of course our economy is continuing the same projectile Trump inherited, but then he threw trillions of dollars into the economy. Obama had four straight years of sub trillion deficits and the economy grew.
So, Obama grew the economy while cutting deficits, Trump continued the growth while almost doubling the deficits. That approach has a short term effect. But in long term, annual trillion dollar deficits will have along term effect and it isn't going to be good, at all.

Yet maobama added more than 9 trillion to the national debt during his term, go figure.

.

Well,,,,,,,from Forbes.
Trump’s Budget Deficits Could Almost Double Obama’s

That's one guys opinion, we'll see if it holds water in an expanding economy.

.

OK, what's your excuse going to be regarding Trump's own OMB?
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-05/55151-budget_update_0.pdf
You do comprehend that future deficits projections are based onTrump's future deficits are calculated on budget commitments already in stone, like his tax cuts or interest on the National Debt and the interest on his own deficits for example.
Also this expended economy is just continuing the economic trajectory established prior Trump.
And Trump's expanding economy is the result of $3 trillion dollars and almost equal Obama's three years deficits invested to righting the economy which started the long term expanding economy. (which you guys cried about)
Never, has any president ever doubled the deficits during long term economic expansion. Never.
Where would the economy be, without Trump's his huge deficits? Instead of using a proven course, he used trillions of other people's money and the recovery pattern, never changed. That's a fact.

Damn, are interest payments on the national debt and yearly deficits different line items in the budget? I don't think so. And if maobama hadn't neglected the military, there wouldn't have been a need to rebuild it. Almost half the military units were non-mission capable when maobama left office because their equipment wasn't properly maintained.

.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Damn, are interest payments on the national debt and yearly deficits different line items in the budget? I don't think so. And if maobama hadn't neglected the military, there wouldn't have been a need to rebuild it. Almost half the military units were non-mission capable when maobama left office because their equipment wasn't properly maintained.

.

You are aware that Obama spent more on the military than his predecessor, right?