GDP misses on Q4

[citygator]

This is a disastrous report. Trump is killing the economy AGAIN. Biden dug us out of the last one.

2025 RECAP:

• Lowest job growth in over 2 decades
• Lower GDP growth than 2024
• Q4 that was barely above a recession 1% growth
• No reduction in import deficit with all the tariffs
• Passed a budget that increased the deficit by $3.5T and was funded by illegal tariffs

What did I miss?

 

[Cellblock2429]

Supposedly things can't possibly get any better according to Trump, except perhaps any of the objective economic data.

Real GDP growth in Q4 is only 1.4%. On the year, GDP growth was 2.2%. This is down a little from GDP growth in 2024 which was 2.4%, and that was supposedly a total disaster.

The economy this year is a lot shakier than the economy last year and this is another data point to show this.

Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP up just 1.4%, badly missing estimate; inflation firms at 3%

The core PCE price index was expected to increase 3% from a year ago in December. GDP was projected to rise at a 2.5% pace in Q4.

www.cnbc.com

GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

/----/ Fallout from the democRAT shutdown - you blithering idiot. Just what you planned on happening.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Please explain how the government shut down disrupted the economy and lowered GDP.

/----/ Here ya go, you troll. Now refute it.
A government shutdown can lead to a reduction in GDP growth by up to 0.2% per week, significantly impacting economic production and consumer spending.

Economic​

1. Reduction in GDP Growth: Government shutdowns can reduce GDP growth by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week. For instance, a shutdown lasting an entire quarter could potentially decrease GDP growth by 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points. This reduction occurs due to decreased federal spending and the furloughing of non-essential government employees, which directly impacts economic activity.
   
   1
2. Furlough of Federal Workers: During a shutdown, many federal employees are furloughed, leading to a temporary loss of income for these workers. This loss translates to reduced consumer spending, as furloughed employees typically cut back on expenditures, affecting businesses reliant on consumer spending. For example, during a recent shutdown, it was estimated that federal workers would miss about $16 billion in wages, which would further dampen economic activity.
   
   1
3. Disruption of Government Services: Essential services continue during a shutdown, but many discretionary programs, such as national parks and certain regulatory functions, are suspended. This disruption can lead to a decrease in economic output, particularly in sectors that rely on government services.
   
   1
4. Delayed Economic Data: Shutdowns also halt the collection and dissemination of key economic data, creating a "data drought." This lack of information can hinder policymakers and economists from making informed decisions, potentially leading to increased uncertainty in the markets.
   
   1
5. Long-term Effects: While some economic activity may be recovered once the government reopens and back pay is issued to federal workers, certain losses, such as canceled flights and missed restaurant meals, may not be recouped. This can lead to a permanent loss of economic activity estimated at around $11 billion.
   
   

Conclusion​

In summary, government shutdowns have significant short-term and long-term effects on GDP and economic production. The immediate impact includes reduced consumer spending due to furloughed workers and the suspension of government services, while the long-term effects can include a permanent loss of economic activity and increased uncertainty in the economy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and business leaders alike.

 

[Marener]

/----/ Here ya go, you troll. Now refute it.
A government shutdown can lead to a reduction in GDP growth by up to 0.2% per week, significantly impacting economic production and consumer spending.

Economic​

1. Reduction in GDP Growth: Government shutdowns can reduce GDP growth by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week. For instance, a shutdown lasting an entire quarter could potentially decrease GDP growth by 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points. This reduction occurs due to decreased federal spending and the furloughing of non-essential government employees, which directly impacts economic activity.
   
   1
2. Furlough of Federal Workers: During a shutdown, many federal employees are furloughed, leading to a temporary loss of income for these workers. This loss translates to reduced consumer spending, as furloughed employees typically cut back on expenditures, affecting businesses reliant on consumer spending. For example, during a recent shutdown, it was estimated that federal workers would miss about $16 billion in wages, which would further dampen economic activity.
   
   1
3. Disruption of Government Services: Essential services continue during a shutdown, but many discretionary programs, such as national parks and certain regulatory functions, are suspended. This disruption can lead to a decrease in economic output, particularly in sectors that rely on government services.
   
   1
4. Delayed Economic Data: Shutdowns also halt the collection and dissemination of key economic data, creating a "data drought." This lack of information can hinder policymakers and economists from making informed decisions, potentially leading to increased uncertainty in the markets.
   
   1
5. Long-term Effects: While some economic activity may be recovered once the government reopens and back pay is issued to federal workers, certain losses, such as canceled flights and missed restaurant meals, may not be recouped. This can lead to a permanent loss of economic activity estimated at around $11 billion.
   https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=6609...YW5lbnQtbWFyay1vbi10aGUtdS1zLWVjb25vbXk&ntb=1

Conclusion​

In summary, government shutdowns have significant short-term and long-term effects on GDP and economic production. The immediate impact includes reduced consumer spending due to furloughed workers and the suspension of government services, while the long-term effects can include a permanent loss of economic activity and increased uncertainty in the economy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and business leaders alike.

So you're mad that the shutdown harmed the GDP because of decreased government spending.

 

[Hafar1014]

That doesn’t explain why there was a 3% expected GDP that included the shutdown effects, and it came at 1.4%. Why was it 1.4 instead of 3? what explains the large miss when the shutdown was already baked in?

This is a disastrous report. Trump is killing the economy AGAIN. Biden dug us out of the last one.

2025 RECAP:

• Lowest job growth in over 2 decades
• Lower GDP growth than 2024
• Q4 that was barely above a recession 1% growth
• No reduction in import deficit with all the tariffs
• Passed a budget that increased the deficit by $3.5T and was funded by illegal tariffs

What did I miss?

Democrats shut down the government economy remember. Travel disrupted wages not paid people stopped buying.

 

[Conservative from Georgia]

Democrats shut down the government economy remember. Travel disrupted wages not paid people stopped buying.

 

[Frankeneinstein]

That doesn’t explain why there was a 3% expected GDP that included the shutdown effects, and it came at 1.4%. Why was it 1.4 instead of 3? what explains the large miss when the shutdown was already baked in?

fake news not only explains it but does so accurately and honestly.

 

[Frankeneinstein]

View attachment 1221263

Now show the numbers for what pct. of the media blamed republicans or democrats for the shutdown and you will see just how far off the mark they were in their bias pushing the above numbers

 

[drudge X]

GDP is was doing significantly better under Biden.

2024 was better on almost every metric but was considered a total disaster by the right.

Nope. The market pointed to a different direction. Stop making shit up.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Remember democrats shut down the government and disrupted the economy lowering GDP

Did you make that up on the spot, or is there a source for that nonsense that we can laugh at?

 

[Frankeneinstein]

Why was the forecast 3% including shutdown effects and why why did miss so much?

easy, forecast was wrong...I point to your posts on the matter as proof

 

[citygator]

Democrats shut down the government economy remember. Travel disrupted wages not paid people stopped buying.

Sure. Excuses are like assholes. Trump is one and has endless ones.

 

[drudge X]

Sure. Excuses are like assholes. Trump is one and has endless ones.

What’s your excuse for being a sore loser?

 

[Marener]

Nope. The market pointed to a different direction. Stop making shit up.

What do you mean by "the market pointed to a different direction"?

 

[Lesh]

Millions of wages not paid travel disrupted people stopped spending

Millions of wages not paid?

So cutting government jobs causes lower GDP?

Imagine that

 

[citygator]

What’s your excuse for being a sore loser?

I won BIG today. Cant wait for my company to get our $20M refund from TRUMP.

 

[drudge X]

What do you mean by "the market pointed to a different direction"?

Four years of runaway inflation under Biden but yet, Democrats were doing everything to spin the bullshit. Yet, you’re telling me the economy was hot under Biden. Sure, I agree that it was hot for insurance, auto, energy, mortgage, and food industries. They made shit load of money at consumers’ expense because Obama was the actual president.

 

[drudge X]

I won BIG today. Cant wait for my company to get our $20M refund from TRUMP.

You keep waiting. Ain’t gonna happen. If magically the refund does happen, will you demand every company that raised the price to refund the consumers?

 

[Hafar1014]

Millions of wages not paid?

So cutting government jobs causes lower GDP?

Imagine that

Under Biden government spending was 40% of GDP. Gross domestic product say it slowly

 

[Lesh]

Under Biden government spending was 40% of GDP. Gross domestic product say it slowly

Not sure how accurate that is but are you claiming it different now?