Someone Made $553,000 Betting US Would Bomb Iran. First Bet Placed Just 71 Minutes Before The News Broke

[luiza]

That two weeks was the difference between making money and losing money.

That's why there was less than a 17% chance of it starting before March.

No .
If that was a definite time limit ( two weeks ) it guaranteed no loss because the later date could be used as the bench mark for recovering any initial bet loss .

That is .
If your pre Feb 28 bet failed , you would at least recover your initial stake loss from a bet made for a mid March start date .

Even if neither were exactly right , the market (PMs) would be rising and your profit there could be offset against any losses from wrongly specifying specific start date bets .

It was Win /Win at the 95%+ level .

 

[postman]

No .
If that was a definite time limit ( two weeks ) it guaranteed no loss because the later date could be used as the bench mark for recovering any initial bet loss .

That is .
If your pre Feb 28 bet failed , you would at least recover your initial stake loss from a bet made for a mid March start date .

Even if neither were exactly right , the market (PMs) would be rising and your profit there could be offset against any losses from wrongly specifying specific start date bets .

It was Win /Win at the 95%+ level .

Are you sure you understand how this works.
The pre-March was at 17%, so it paid nearly 6 to 1

By mid march the odds were probably over 85% so it paid 18 cents on the dollar

So to recover the February loss of $50,000, you would need to bet another $250,000

 

[Godboy]

Nobody died (except the cows) for Clinton's cattle futures.

If Iran is not defeated, how many lives do you think they will take just over the next decade alone, through their terrorist proxies and the government killing its own civilians? 50,000? Maybe more?

If Iran is defeated and a non terrorist government gains control, this will be one of the greatest boons to humanity that weve seen in a long time. It will spare us from countless future wars in the Middle East.

 

[theHawk]

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed just 71 minutes before the news broke publicly that air strikes had killed him. When this person bought in, the market had the likelihood of this happening at just 17% probability by February 28. Magamyman turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Someone else going by the pseudonym "Curseaaaaaaa," made $757,000 betting Khamenei would be out of power by March 31. Analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This is all some lucky, well-timed betting.

The bets were placed on Polymarket, which just happens to have Don Jr. as an advisory board member. Jr’s venture firm, 1789 Capital, also made a significant “tens of millions of dollars” investment in Polymarket. You don’t suppose Don Jr. had some inside info about the timing of bombing Iran from his dad that he passed along to one or more of his buddies, do you?

Someone Made $553K Betting U.S. Would Bomb Iran. Placed 1st Bet 71 Min Before News Broke.

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed...

www.dailykos.com

Trump was right. It really was "great deal". And only at the cost of the lives of three service members...so far.

It was pretty predictable. The US fleet presence made it a forgone conclusion.

The question is, who would bet against the strikes?

 

[luiza]

Are you sure you understand how this works.
The pre-March was at 17%, so it paid nearly 6 to 1

By mid march the odds were probably over 85% so it paid 18 cents on the dollar

So to recover the February loss of $50,000, you would need to bet another $250,000

Irrelevant .
Percentages may influence whether you make a bet but actual cash outcomes are the only figures of importance .
Making bets using six figure sums have happened to me many times --- albeit leveraged and paper .

I am a professional gambler and have been all my life -- literally and metaphorically .

 

[airplanemechanic]

Nancy Pelosi is still at it.

 

[evenflow1969]

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed just 71 minutes before the news broke publicly that air strikes had killed him. When this person bought in, the market had the likelihood of this happening at just 17% probability by February 28. Magamyman turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Someone else going by the pseudonym "Curseaaaaaaa," made $757,000 betting Khamenei would be out of power by March 31. Analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This is all some lucky, well-timed betting.

The bets were placed on Polymarket, which just happens to have Don Jr. as an advisory board member. Jr’s venture firm, 1789 Capital, also made a significant “tens of millions of dollars” investment in Polymarket. You don’t suppose Don Jr. had some inside info about the timing of bombing Iran from his dad that he passed along to one or more of his buddies, do you?

Someone Made $553K Betting U.S. Would Bomb Iran. Placed 1st Bet 71 Min Before News Broke.

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed...

www.dailykos.com

Trump was right. It really was "great deal". And only at the cost of the lives of three service members...so far.

Obviously inside info.

 

[luiza]

Obviously inside info.

Nonsense .
I made the same bet , albeit not for the same amount , simply because it stood out as clear cut given all available information .

 

[evenflow1969]

Nonsense .
I made the same bet , albeit not for the same amount , simply because it stood out as clear cut given all available information .

Lol, ya an hour before. Sure. I have done some gambling in my life also. I know a rigged game when I see one. Back in my day Vegas wasn't Disney Vegas. You would have ended up in the East River doing shit like that. You would have went back to New York with the kick up.

 

[postman]

Nonsense .
I made the same bet , albeit not for the same amount , simply because it stood out as clear cut given all available information .

If it was so clear cut, why were the Iranian's surprised?

They certainly knew more about what was going on around them, than you did on the other side of the globe.

 

[luiza]

If it was so clear cut, why were the Iranian's surprised?

They certainly knew more about what was going on around them, than you did on the other side of the globe.

They were completely unsurprised .
They have been planning closely for literally years with Russia and China fully briefed and helping .
Who said they were surprised ?
Nobody , because it is an absurd idea .

The last two scraps were totally staged and you need to wait a little longer to see whether this might not be another repeat .

If Deep State feels it needs to consolidate , it will need to bring both Iran ( run by Faux Jews) and even Russia closer to Israel and ZionUSstan ( America) .
So some staged nonsense is necessary , followed by some sort of agreement which gives the narcissist something to crow about and brings a new style Iran closer to so called democracy .
Deep State becomes a tighter , more compact unit of Control .
Which is the end -game objective in a nutshell .

 

[sparky]

Nancy Pelosi is still at it.

she rarely adds anything constructive.....~S~

 

[Ringo]

So does slavery.

But we got rid of slavery because it was immoral.

No. Slavery was abolished only if it became economically unprofitable or if maintaining it threatened rebellion. Morality served only as a justification for political action.
When slavery was profitable, paid moralists invented scientific theories about why slavery was good.

 

[candycorn]

Nobody is surprised that someone is the blob’s circle is personally enriching themselves as American soldiers are dying.

Trump did call them “suckers” after all.

 

[Captain Creeper]

It's a little known fact, but there was a death bet on Epstein too. The winner got something like $2 million. A reporter from NYT investigated to determine the winner, but he committed suicide by shooting himself in the head 37 times. However, it was later uncovered that said reporting kept notes on his investigation. The letters "HC" kept recurring in the notes. Nobody knew what this meant. Even today the mystery goes unsolved.

 

[d0gbreath]

People don't bet $87k, unless they know it's a sure thing. I'd bet $87k that Don Jr. told him about it.

 

[konradv]

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed just 71 minutes before the news broke publicly that air strikes had killed him. When this person bought in, the market had the likelihood of this happening at just 17% probability by February 28. Magamyman turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Someone else going by the pseudonym "Curseaaaaaaa," made $757,000 betting Khamenei would be out of power by March 31. Analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This is all some lucky, well-timed betting.

The bets were placed on Polymarket, which just happens to have Don Jr. as an advisory board member. Jr’s venture firm, 1789 Capital, also made a significant “tens of millions of dollars” investment in Polymarket. You don’t suppose Don Jr. had some inside info about the timing of bombing Iran from his dad that he passed along to one or more of his buddies, do you?

Someone Made $553K Betting U.S. Would Bomb Iran. Placed 1st Bet 71 Min Before News Broke.

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed...

www.dailykos.com

Trump was right. It really was "great deal". And only at the cost of the lives of three service members...so far.

This administration believes in multiple income streams.

 

[Muhammed]

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed just 71 minutes before the news broke publicly that air strikes had killed him. When this person bought in, the market had the likelihood of this happening at just 17% probability by February 28. Magamyman turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Someone else going by the pseudonym "Curseaaaaaaa," made $757,000 betting Khamenei would be out of power by March 31. Analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This is all some lucky, well-timed betting.

The bets were placed on Polymarket, which just happens to have Don Jr. as an advisory board member. Jr’s venture firm, 1789 Capital, also made a significant “tens of millions of dollars” investment in Polymarket. You don’t suppose Don Jr. had some inside info about the timing of bombing Iran from his dad that he passed along to one or more of his buddies, do you?

Someone Made $553K Betting U.S. Would Bomb Iran. Placed 1st Bet 71 Min Before News Broke.

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed...

www.dailykos.com

Trump was right. It really was "great deal". And only at the cost of the lives of three service members...so far.

So what?

It's perfectly legal and ethical.

 

[Independent thinker]

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed just 71 minutes before the news broke publicly that air strikes had killed him. When this person bought in, the market had the likelihood of this happening at just 17% probability by February 28. Magamyman turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Someone else going by the pseudonym "Curseaaaaaaa," made $757,000 betting Khamenei would be out of power by March 31. Analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This is all some lucky, well-timed betting.

The bets were placed on Polymarket, which just happens to have Don Jr. as an advisory board member. Jr’s venture firm, 1789 Capital, also made a significant “tens of millions of dollars” investment in Polymarket. You don’t suppose Don Jr. had some inside info about the timing of bombing Iran from his dad that he passed along to one or more of his buddies, do you?

Someone Made $553K Betting U.S. Would Bomb Iran. Placed 1st Bet 71 Min Before News Broke.

Grifters gotta grift. Someone calling themselves “Magamyman” just made $553,000 placing bets the U.S. would bomb Iran by February 28 and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be out of power. The first of several bets they made was placed...

www.dailykos.com

Trump was right. It really was "great deal". And only at the cost of the lives of three service members...so far.

Unless you have proof of something then it's not impossible for him to be aware of world circumstances.

I've made two incredible bets in my life where, unfortunately, I wagered really small amounts. One was a baseball bet where a player had hit over 40 home runs half way through the season and I bet he wouldn't hit 50 for the whole season. The guy was injured like the next day. Another bet I made for another very small amount was a football bet where I gave a friend of mine 50 points. The team I picked won 62-7.