Someone Is Going To Have To Move Faster On Iran

[Annie]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1677542,00.html?gusrc=rss

Secret services say Iran is trying to assemble a nuclear missile

Document seen by Guardian details web of front companies and middlemen
Ian Cobain and Ian Traynor
Wednesday January 4, 2006

Guardian
The Iranian government has been successfully scouring Europe for the sophisticated equipment needed to develop a nuclear bomb, according to the latest western intelligence assessment of the country's weapons programmes.

Scientists in Tehran are also shopping for parts for a ballistic missile capable of reaching Europe, with "import requests and acquisitions ... registered almost daily", the report seen by the Guardian concludes.

The warning came as Iran raised the stakes in its dispute with the United States and the European Union yesterday by notifying the International Atomic Energy Authority that it intended to resume nuclear fuel research next week. Tehran has refused to rule out a return to attempts at uranium enrichment, the key to the development of a nuclear weapon.

The 55-page intelligence assessment, dated July 1 2005, draws upon material gathered by British, French, German and Belgian agencies, and has been used to brief European government ministers and to warn leading industrialists of the need for vigilance when exporting equipment or expertise to so-called rogue states.

It concludes that Syria and Pakistan have also been buying technology and chemicals needed to develop rocket programmes and to enrich uranium. It outlines the role played by Russia in the escalating Middle East arms build-up, and examines the part that dozens of Chinese front companies have played in North Korea's nuclear weapons programme.

But it is the detailed assessment of Iran's nuclear purchasing programme that will most most alarm western leaders, who have long refused to believe Tehran's insistence that it is not interested in developing nuclear weapons and is trying only to develop nuclear power for electricity. Governments in the west and elsewhere have also been dismayed by recent pronouncements from the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has said that Holocaust denial is a "scientific debate" and that Israel should be "wiped off the map".

The leak of the intelligence report may signal a growing frustration at Iran's refusal to bow to western demands that it abandon its programme to produce fuel for a Russian-built nuclear reactor due to come on stream this year.

The assessment declares that Iran has developed an extensive web of front companies, official bodies, academic institutes and middlemen dedicated to obtaining - in western Europe and in the former Soviet Union - the expertise, training, and equipment for nuclear programmes, missile development, and biological and chemical weapons arsenals.

"In addition to sensitive goods, Iran continues intensively to seek the technology and know-how for military applications of all kinds," it says.

The document lists scores of Iranian companies and institutions involved in the arms race. It also details Tehran's growing determination to perfect a ballistic missile capable of delivering warheads far beyond its borders.

It notes that Iran harbours ambitions of developing a space programme, but is currently concentrating on upgrading and extending the range of its Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 750 miles - capable of reaching Israel.

Iranian scientists are said to be building wind tunnels to assist in missile design, developing navigation technology, and acquiring metering and calibration technology, motion simulators and x-ray machines designed to examine rocket parts. The next generation of the Shahab ("shooting star" in Persian) should be capable of reaching Austria and Italy.

 

[manu1959]

all in favour of letting them blow each other up.....

show of hands

 

[Annie]

all in favour of letting them blow each other up.....

show of hands

Ah, but what of our troops in Iraq? Israel? Our guys in Germany? What about Turkey? India? Pakistan?

 

[manu1959]

Ah, but what of our troops in Iraq? Israel? Our guys in Germany? What about Turkey? India? Pakistan?

pull the troops out and wish all of europe and the middle east the bestof luck....i am sure they will arrest them and try them in the world court

 

[Annie]

pull the troops out and wish all of europe and the middle east the bestof luck....i am sure they will arrest them and try them in the world court

That might work. We get out of the way and let Iran and France turn each other to glass.

 

[manu1959]

That might work. We get out of the way and let Iran and France turn each other to glass.

well, all of europe seems to think that if you just leave them alone they will leave you alone......so i say we give it a try....let iran and iraq go at it....let pakistan and inda go at it......who cares if gas goes to $100 a gallon.....let france and germany and china and russia sort it all out....it isn't like tanks were running over students, or school children were being shot, or cars were beinging burned or skin heads were killing muslims in any of those countries....they seem to have it all figured out....i say we let them deal with it.......

george bush should go on tv and say.....oops sorry made a mistake....you all were right.....troops leave today...good luck....good night and god bless

 

[Annie]

well, all of europe seems to think that if you just leave them alone they will leave you alone......so i say we give it a try....let iran and iraq go at it....let pakistan and inda go at it......who cares if gas goes to $100 a gallon.....let france and germany and china and russia sort it all out....it isn't like tanks were running over students, or school children were being shot, or cars were beinging burned or skin heads were killing muslims in any of those countries....they seem to have it all figured out....i say we let them deal with it.......

george bush should go on tv and say.....oops sorry made a mistake....you all were right.....troops leave today...good luck....good night and god bless

Tempting, tempting...

 

[manu1959]

Tempting, tempting...

it would certainly allow us to spend more money at home.....it would certainly make us develope alternate enegry sources.....it would certainely call the bluffs of those that claim to want to fight and or claim to want peace......fook it i say we let them go for it and let god or allah sort it out....

 

[Adam's Apple]

Time bomb ticking on both sides of this issue. Thomas Sowell's column a few days ago was asking if the "point of no return" had been reached. I can't believe that Israel will stand still and let it happen without taking some military action against Iran. But it won't be as easy for them to take care of Iran's "nuclear dreams" as it was for them to take care of Iraq's. Russia and China have provided Iran with all the high-tech, modern instruments of war that will make it exceeding hard for Israel to succeed.

 

[Bonnie]

That might work. We get out of the way and let Iran and France turn each other to glass.

Sadly I think the Nuclear fallout would make it's way to us as well. But im no expert here. To me smart money is on letting Israel take out Iran's reactors with a few tiny explosions, Iran and the Middle East goes back to it's seething hatred of Israel, Great Britain, and us, Russia is off the hook for trying to broker some kind of ridiculous intervention deal, France and Germany can pretend to be outraged, and no Nuclear Winter or two headed babies born around the world. Simple

 

[Annie]

Sadly I think the Nuclear fallout would make it's way to us as well. But im no expert here. To me smart money is on letting Israel take out Iran's reactors with a few tiny explosions, Iran and the Middle East goes back to it's seething hatred of Israel, Great Britain, and us, Russia is off the hook for trying to broker some kind of ridiculous intervention deal, France and Germany can pretend to be outraged, and no Nuclear Winter or two headed babies born around the world. Simple

I was being facetious, but I've a feeling we are going to be finding out sooner than later.

 

[Bonnie]

I was being facetious, but I've a feeling we are going to be finding out sooner than later.

So was I.... and I think your right

 

[ekrem]

Iran and possible developments


Since the revolution in 1979, Iran has become a country where the most interesting developments take place. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's recent remarks targeting particularly Israel are striking as well as his statements that "we should prepare our economic and political policies for the return of Imam al-Mahdi" and "we should avoid imitating the West." The military power of today's Iran led by Ahmedinejad � who is said to have been a member of the Revolutionary Guards (the pasdarans) and the religious militia organization Besics in the past and worked for the Iranian Special Forces, and to rely on the Revolutionary Guards, the Besics and the Iranian Army, which has turned out to be very different and secure in terms of the regime compared to the days of Ayatollah Khomenei � is not such a thing that can be swallowed easily. In Iran, where efforts are underway to keep the Persians unified against the other minorities that constitute the majority in order to create a national feeling, the Persian population is throwing support behind Ahmedinejad due to that power.

The possibility of a military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran's nuclear program shows that the Iranians will support their president more strongly. The fact that the U.S. siege around Iran has increased since the Khomenei Revolution is an element that makes the Persians increasingly uneasy.

US bases around Iran

The United States has practically occupied Afghanistan and has four bases, including the ones in Pasni and Yakobabad, in Pakistan, and is in a position to directly besiege Iran.

Increasing the number of its bases and troops in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries especially after the first Gulf War, the United States is in a position to besiege Iran from the west as well with the presence of approximately 130,000 troops in Iraq. In addition, the Incirlik Airbase located further west (near Adana, Turkey) is one of the few very important bases outside U.S. territory.

The fact that the former Soviet military base Nassosni in Azerbaijan, which is to the north of Iran, has been modernized and enhanced with U.S. support and that the Azerbaijani troops held joint military exercises there in 2003 with U.S. forces against terrorism reveals Iran's potential problems in the north as well.

Iran's use of the petro-dollars it has in large numbers for armaments and to obtain a deterrent power is an expected situation, as it feels alone under such a siege.

Desiring to extend its regional power to an inter-continental dimension by obtaining immunity in the Middle East and to have a say everywhere that it can reach, especially in the United States, Iran, actually, assumed an assertive stance during the shah era and had one of the most modern armies � in addition to that of the United States � at the time. The fact that Iran purchased that era�s most developed planes, F14, F4 warplanes, nine Boeing transportation and 14 Boeing 707 and KC-707 tanker planes, and got six Wellington-type BH-7 Hovercraft into its navy during the shah era reveals Iran's military objectives. Also, the fact that the shah had plans to set up 26 nuclear plants and aimed at becoming a nuclear power as a result of this shows that Iran has linked becoming a regional power to the military power factor with a broader vision in every historical era. In that regard, in addition to TOR-M1 type air defense missiles, several other sophisticated weapon systems, that have recently been ordered to purchase from the Russian Federation by Iran and that are said to cost approximately $1.5 billion, are proof that Iran wants to enhance its military power to a great extent, despite the sanctions imposed by the Western world.

The current point that Iran has reached in the field of ballistic missile technology with technical assistance from China, Russia and North Korea is also striking. At this time it is important that the 1,500 kilometer-range Shahab-3 can reach everywhere in the Middle East including Israel, and there are rumors that Shahab-4 weapons developed with Russia's continuing technical assistance despite U.S. objections can reach a 2,000 kilometer-range. There have also been claims that the project of developing a 10,000 kilometer-range ballistic missile system, the Shahab-6, which is the enhanced type of Shahab-5, has stopped due to unknown reasons. According to the rumors, Iran having such a 10,000-kilometer range missile might well cause the eastern coasts of the United States to be included within the distance that can be reached by Iran.

The steps taken by Iran especially in the air defense sphere and the fact that Iran has purchased enhanced long-range S-300s from Russia are important. Again, the rumors that Chinese type HN-5A and HQ-2 are being produced for the air defense, the development of Misaq-1 Saeqeh, Sayyad-1 and Tahageb type surface-to-air short-range air defense missiles, along with Crotale and Rapier type missiles through reverse engineering methods and the production of Kosar (FL-8), Fecr-i Derya (C-701) and Nasser (FL-9)-type missiles show that Iran has reached a serious position with its own opportunities against any air attacks. At this point, we can say that if Iran's available weapon systems are taken into account, this country, unlike Iraq during the Gulf Wars, will not fail but will use its effective defense power in the face of possible airstrikes launched by the United States or Israel.

In this respect, the following missiles that Iran plans purchasing from Russia, namely,

- "Mosquito" ballistic missiles that can be used in land or in the air against ships,
- "Yahont-E"-type missiles against ships,
- "Club"-type Cruise missiles,
- TOR-M1-type air defense missiles,
- Long-range ballistic missiles to be used against radar and,
- Ballistic air-to-air missiles developed for Mig-29 and SU-24 are important. All of these make one think that Iran aims at taking the initiative against especially the U.S. forces in the Gulf and closing the Strait of Hormuz with its "Mosquito" and "Yahont-E" in the face of a possible U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran.



Iran's nuclear efforts

Desiring to rapidly obtain nuclear energy during the shah era and focusing on having atomic bomb in a short period of time, Iran took a 10 percent share in 1995 in the Eurodif uranium enrichment facility belonging to a consortium made up of French, Belgian, Spanish and Italian companies. In addition, the construction of nuclear plants and secretly run nuclear weapon programs of that country continued until January 1979. Later the decision to revive efforts to have nuclear programs that stopped in 1984 was made by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Presently Iran has

- A 5 MW power nuclear research reactor belonging to Tehran University,
- A 30 kw power Chinese-origin research reactor in Isfahan,
- (1000 MWe-1300 MWe power) Bushehr-1 and Bushehr-2 nuclear plants (these plants got damaged during the Iran-Iraq war. The construction of Bushehr-1 has restarted with technical assistance from Russia),
- Heavy water production facility in Arak,
- Uranium enrichment facility in Natanz,
- Civil nuclear research reactors in Bonab and Ramsar and,
- Uranium reserves in Yazd.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) detected THE Bonab and Ramsar facilities in 1997 but cited no secret military program. There are claims that research on uranium enrichment efforts with centrifuge and plutonium is being carried out at Sheriff Technology University in Tehran. Also, it is claimed that nuclear weapon development efforts are under way at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center.

There are several estimates about the timing when Iran will have nuclear weaponry. A general view on the issue was that the Isfahan Uranium Enrichment Center and the heavy water facility in Arak would start production in late 2005. Natanz is claimed to be ready to start enriched uranium production in 2006 and plutonium production in Arak is said to be set to start in the 2010s.

Iran's current problem is whether the available knowledge of this country is sufficient to develop nuclear bombs. However, Iran, which has proven successful in educating and training thousands of students and scientists abroad, is likely to have sufficient knowledge. If one considers that Pakistan has nuclear power thanks to the individual efforts of just one person, Dr. Abdulkadir Khan, it seems that nobody has the chance to dissuade a determined Iran from being a nuclear power today. With the delaying tactics and its nuclear research facilities, which are said to be spread over more than 40 different locations, Iran will declare one day that it is a nuclear power just like North Korea.

Plans and possibility of striking Iran

The phenomenon that Iran, which is said to have almost 50,000 enrichment centrifuges, will be able to annually produce 400-500- kilogram enriched uranium capable of nuclear bomb production and annually have almost 10-20 bomb production capacity is making both the United States and Israel lose sleep.

Although there are options that the United States and Israel can independently or together launch attacks against Iran, every option has its own political and military disadvantages.

Possible operations launched by the two countries, jointly or independently, are open to political reactions. An operation particularly led by Israel alone could enable the Islamic countries to assume a joint stance against Israel in the Middle East. The intense financial assistance to be provided by Iran to terrorist organizations in the Middle East for anti-Israel military operations and the insistence of these organizations on an asymmetric war might be under consideration. Likewise, even at a lower level, the asymmetric war continuing in Iraq and led only by the Sunnis for the time being can make it possible that this war can also be made by all of the Shiite militias in Iraq as well as military forces, particularly the Badr Brigades and al-Mahdi Army. Actually, it is necessary to take into account Iran's 50,000 informants and its nearly 10,000 mercenaries, which are said to be in Iraq, in the face of a possible U.S.-led operation.

Furthermore, as we said at the outset, both countries should take into consideration Iran's air defense power during a possible airstrike against this country.

A possible U.S.-led airstrike will especially target the Bushehr, Natanz and Arak facilities. It is likely that invisible type B-2s that will take off from Diego Garcia, Britain, Qatar and the United States, and the other heavy bombardment planes will target those facilities together with invisible F117 type of air superiority fighters. Under these circumstances, if Iran's nuclear development programs come to a halt or are delayed with a strike against the three facilities, or if the other assistant and secret facilities, which are said to be nearly 40, are struck in addition to the three facilities, the duration and the dimension of the operation will broaden and at that time it will be necessary to stop the air defense power of the Iranian Armed Forces. At this point, the United States will have the advantages of having bases in Iraq and Gulf countries. The F15 E and F16s warplanes based on U.S. aircraft carriers in the Gulf area can easily be used as well, if the operation broadens. Also, the Tomahawk Cruise missiles belonging to the U.S. Navy can be used during such an operation.

During an Israel-led airstrike, the warplanes and this country's past experiences will be important. Especially some 25 2,200 kilometer-range F15s that belong to the 69th fleet and 2,100 kilometer-range F16s with additional fuel tanks seem to be sufficient to strike particularly Bushehr and Isfahan, which are 1,500 kilometers from this country. Israel's 500 BLU-109 type bombs, said to be purchased from the United States in September 2004 with the capacity to destroy underground facilities, reveal Israel's plans to launch attacks against Iran. It's usually said that Israel targets Iran's six important facilities, which will cause Iran to at least delay its nuclear program efforts for a long while.

In addition to its air power, Israel is claimed to use its most capable Special Forces Union, the 262nd Brigade, against secret underground facilities in Iran.
(http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article /0,,2089-1920074,00.html)

Still, it is highly likely that Israel's new highly developed Dolphin-type submarines' (with a total of 10 torpedo tubes -- six 533-millimeter and four 650-millimeter) could be used to launch a long-range nuclear-capable submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) by out of standard 650-millimeter torpedo tubes. According to some reports, the submarines may also be capable of carrying nuclear-armed Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, with a goal of deterring an enemy from trying to take out its nuclear weapons with a surprise attack. (http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/sh...eapons.com/weapons/naval/dolphin/Dolphin.html)

In a possible attack despite all of those possibilities, there are unsolved elements that can create problems for the United States and Israel:

- If Iran has underground nuclear facilities, the issue on to what extent the intelligence reports of the United States and Israel are correct is important. Especially it is an important sign that there are rumors that the United States could not in the past spot any secret facilities belonging to Soviet Russia, which successfully hid them. This point holds for North Korea and Pakistan's efforts to successfully hide their facilities. In addition to their success in hiding the facilities, these countries are said to set up some facilities in the earth that they use as a trap. It is likely that Iran might be applying the same tactic.
- The possibility that Iran has set up spare facilities and it has established underground facilities, which are similar to the ones in the earth, is under consideration.
- All of those elements show there is a failure or risk factor in an operation to be launched upon missing intelligence reports.
- If Iran can use its HAWK, SA-2, SA-5, Rapier, RBS-70, Tigercat, SA-16, SA-7, SA-6 and SA-300 anti-aircraft missile systems along with its 1,700 anti-aircraft guns in a more effective and conscious way than the Iraqi Army, it is seen that the job of the United States and Israel will not be very easy.
- In the face of a possible operation, it is clear that with its almost 300 Scub-B and 100 Scud-C missiles Iran will target U.S. forces and facilities in Iraq as well as U.S. marine forces in the Gulf by using its "Mosquito" and "Yahont-E" missiles, which Iran will purchase from Russia.
- Furthermore, Iran's blocking the ship traffic at the Strait of Hormuz and thus blocking 25 percent of the world�s oil need with its 2,000 sea mines is a possibility.
- Iran's launching attacks against Israel with its "15th Ghaem Missile Brigade," which is said to be reorganized and has Shahab-3 and Shahab-4, and with the medium-range missiles belonging to the "5th Ra'ad Missile Brigade" equipped with Shahab-3 and Shahab-4, is also a possibility.

Furthermore, with the "7th EL-Hadid Missile Brigade" equipped with Scud-C and Ds, the "19th Zulfikar Rocket Brigade" that has EL-Naze and Zelzal unguided rockets, and the "Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Forces" the number of which has recently risen to five Rocket Brigades from three, will be able to target especially U.S. forces in the Gulf in an effective manner.

The timing of a U.S.- and Israeli-led operation is important before the provision of TOR-M1 air defense missiles, which were ordered by Iran from the Russian Federation, which are nearly $750 million worth and might cause tension through the U.S. pressure on Russia for dissuading it from providing Iran with these missiles. Otherwise, Iran can respond to an operation more effectively with the contribution of those weapons. This element will probably not be disregarded by the United States.

All of those elements demonstrate that Iran desiring to become a nuclear power at any cost is on a very tough and thorny road and in the face of a possible operation, the job of the United States and Israel will not be easy at all. There is no doubt that the emergence of such an operation will lead to consequences that will impact the entire Middle East and particularly Turkey in many respects.
http://www.thenewanatolian.com/htm/subs/opinions/spr-006-1.htm

 

[rtwngAvngr]

Are we supposed to be scared or something?